Carolina folks are about to get screwed by that warm nose on this run too I’m afraid
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Way warmer
I totally agree. The amount of worry about lack of moisture is blowing my mind here. We absolutely want this thing suppressed & colder with these runs leading up because I can promise you it'll verify further North regardless of whatever models are showing. You can tell there are conflicting desires with most in here with tracking this storm. I know I want it further South & colder for obvious reasons, but even North I would be team colder temperatures rather than team more moisture. It's going to be very hard to get both.People think they want this more amped, prepare to cry when temps are your issue come go time
People would rather have a pretty snow map than their grass covered white come go timeI totally agree. The amount of worry about lack of moisture is blowing my mind here. We absolutely want this thing suppressed & colder with these runs leading up because I can promise you it'll verify further Norther regardless of whatever models are showing. You can tell there are conflicting desires with most in here with tracking this storm. I know I want it further South & colder for obvious reasons, but even North I would be team colder temperatures rather than team more moisture. It's going to be very hard to get both.
The more QPF and warmer the mid levels get, the more we entrench a wedge in wedge areas and actually cool sfc temps with the processes of CADCooling trend at the surface in the western triangle over the last three runs centered on 0z Saturday:
0z: 30
6z: 28
12z: 26
And the more ice we getThe more QPF and warmer the mid levels get, the more we entrench a wedge in wedge areas and actual cool sfc temps
Ton of sleet...that's a big winter storm with 1-2" of snow.Not great for North Georgia
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Which makes me more worried about a significant ice eventThe more QPF and warmer the mid levels get, the more we entrench a wedge in wedge areas and actually cool sfc temps with the processes of CAD
I couldn't type this fast enough!Keep in mind NAM has always been known to have a bias in energy and overamplification so we shall see
I know this model is no bueno for snow
In past days of NAM I would agree. Since it’s update, it’s been even sometimes too dry.I have a suspicion this might be overdone...
Good point... this will calm down in later runs and so will the warm nose.I have a suspicion this might be overdone...
BWAHAHAHA....now if that doesn't tell you what you need to know!!!!I have a suspicion this might be overdone...
They go hand in hand in this setup.NAM does tend to over amp at this range but I also have never seen the NAM bust too warm
It has busted many times for me too warm, giving me much more sleet than anticipated. Most recently, the big one in 2022.NAM does tend to over amp at this range but I also have never seen the NAM bust too warm
I have, a couple of times. But I've seen it hit more times than not. I think this may be a case of the NAM being amp-happy. QPF, if real, would be pretty high-impact.NAM does tend to over amp at this range but I also have never seen the NAM bust too warm
The over amped theory was way more accurate years past, as with many of these models "biases" all have had updates over the last couple years. The NAM since then hasn't been as routinely over amped or the juiciest model at times, that doesn't mean it isn't wrong here but it can't be completely ignored based off past (pre-update) historyIf you honestly believe the NAM's amplification, and feel that it will benefit you ANYWHERE in the southeast, you haven's experienced enough weather.
1.) The NAM is ALWAYS overamped, ALWAYS
2.) If it is anywhere close to being right, your SLP will track right through south central GA, through SC, and inland in NC....enjoy the rain.
That said, I wouldn't wipe my butt with it at this point.
NAM does tend to over amp at this range but I also have never seen the NAM bust too warm
I recall NAM saying we are going to get freezing rain and it ended up being more sleet, Feb 2014. I have never seen it, that I recall, show ice and then we verify snow.I have, a couple of times. But I've seen it hit more times than not. I think this may be a case of the NAM being amp-happy. QPF, if real, would be pretty high-impact.
NAM had the sleet line making it to D.C. for several runs in a row with that last storm around this range,(maybe even closer). That didn't come close to happening.NAM does tend to over amp at this range but I also have never seen the NAM bust too warm