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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

I’m not buying the much warmer solutions the nam is putting out here in the tennessee valley these models are having a hard time and underestimating the cold air and snow pack to the north. Don’t shoot the messenger here just my opinion at the moment
 
People think they want this more amped, prepare to cry when temps are your issue come go time
I totally agree. The amount of worry about lack of moisture is blowing my mind here. We absolutely want this thing suppressed & colder with these runs leading up because I can promise you it'll verify further North regardless of whatever models are showing. You can tell there are conflicting desires with most in here with tracking this storm. I know I want it further South & colder for obvious reasons, but even North I would be team colder temperatures rather than team more moisture. It's going to be very hard to get both.
 
I totally agree. The amount of worry about lack of moisture is blowing my mind here. We absolutely want this thing suppressed & colder with these runs leading up because I can promise you it'll verify further Norther regardless of whatever models are showing. You can tell there are conflicting desires with most in here with tracking this storm. I know I want it further South & colder for obvious reasons, but even North I would be team colder temperatures rather than team more moisture. It's going to be very hard to get both.
People would rather have a pretty snow map than their grass covered white come go time
 
NAM is over-amped as usual at this range. Nothing to worry about. Also it's very close to all snow for lots of people for the whole storm... very thin warm layer at 700-750mb that's barely above freezing for like 6 straight hours. Could easily swing the other way,(like other models show).
 
I have a suspicion this might be overdone...
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If you honestly believe the NAM's amplification, and feel that it will benefit you ANYWHERE in the southeast, you haven's experienced enough weather.

1.) The NAM is ALWAYS overamped, ALWAYS

2.) If it is anywhere close to being right, your SLP will track right through south central GA, through SC, and inland in NC....enjoy the rain.

That said, I wouldn't wipe my butt with it at this point.
 
NAM does tend to over amp at this range but I also have never seen the NAM bust too warm
It has busted many times for me too warm, giving me much more sleet than anticipated. Most recently, the big one in 2022.

Of course, I'll give the 3K much more credence if it matches.
 
Really starting to worry about QPF here in the NC Triad. Not trying to wishcast, but it seems odd that the system would dry up as much as some models are showing. This feels like a 3-6" potential here, and I'm gonna be pretty bummed if the snow shield goes poof as it gets over NC. Today's trends are critical for us, and it will be nice to start seeing the storm form on radar/satellite today to compare to model forecasts. Really hoping the 12z model suite stops (or reverses!) the drain on QPF. What we need here is certainly different than what the folks in GA and AL want, but a little more amplification would probably do us some good here. Enjoying tracking it nonetheless and appreciate all y'all's insight!
 
NAM does tend to over amp at this range but I also have never seen the NAM bust too warm
I have, a couple of times. But I've seen it hit more times than not. I think this may be a case of the NAM being amp-happy. QPF, if real, would be pretty high-impact.
 
If you honestly believe the NAM's amplification, and feel that it will benefit you ANYWHERE in the southeast, you haven's experienced enough weather.

1.) The NAM is ALWAYS overamped, ALWAYS

2.) If it is anywhere close to being right, your SLP will track right through south central GA, through SC, and inland in NC....enjoy the rain.

That said, I wouldn't wipe my butt with it at this point.
The over amped theory was way more accurate years past, as with many of these models "biases" all have had updates over the last couple years. The NAM since then hasn't been as routinely over amped or the juiciest model at times, that doesn't mean it isn't wrong here but it can't be completely ignored based off past (pre-update) history
 
I have, a couple of times. But I've seen it hit more times than not. I think this may be a case of the NAM being amp-happy. QPF, if real, would be pretty high-impact.
I recall NAM saying we are going to get freezing rain and it ended up being more sleet, Feb 2014. I have never seen it, that I recall, show ice and then we verify snow.
 
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