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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

rburrel2 said:
NAM had the sleet line making it to D.C. for several runs in a row with that last storm around this range,(maybe even closer). That didn't come close to happening.
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DC actually had a period of sleet during this last storm according to most of my friends and colleagues there
 
Yeah if you're hugging the NAM at the end of its range and discounting as it comes into the heart of its range, you're getting it backward. The NAM's utility is with thermal profiles and it has known to be particularly strong at sniffing out the extent of a CAD signal and warm noses. Ignore it inside 48 or even 60 hours at your peril.
 
Rain Cold said:
I have, a couple of times. But I've seen it hit more times than not. I think this may be a case of the NAM being amp-happy. QPF, if real, would be pretty high-impact.
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Would rather have a high impact, high qpf event with a couple inches of snow with sleet on top, than to be dry with maybe an inch of snow that is gone by the end of the day in the sun in the CLT area.
 
The most concerning thing about the NAM is it keeps my area below freezing at the surface all day. While that is right at 32 degrees and probably manageable. However if we trend cooler and end up at 30c lights out big time. Have to really pray for sleet.
 
If you want to hope for the NAM do to what it's showing, go for it.....but the end result will be a quick changeover to rain in almost all of NC outside of the mountains.....amped is not what you want. I can almost guarantee you that a classic weaker Miller A is going to over-produce on its northern edges...it almost always does, which would put most of NC in a great spot.

Either way.....weather gonna do what weather gonna do!!
 
fwiw NAM had a few dud runs for me with the monday system, starting at sleet immediately flipping to rain etc. no snow depicted. that was wrong. however synoptically a stronger waa surge is a reasonable response to it achieving better tilt out west
 
ILMRoss said:
fwiw NAM had a few dud runs for me with the monday system, starting at sleet immediately flipping to rain etc. no snow depicted. that was wrong. however synoptically a stronger waa surge is a reasonable response to it achieving better tilt out west
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Yeah nam is great at warm noses but sometimes underestimates the evaporative cooling that can offset them a bit when moisture in the column is achieved, hence why it falters sometimes on front end snow setups
 
KyloG said:
I will say the RGEM was much better for the last Sun/Mon deal then the NAM. The NAM wasn't great at this range.
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RGEM has thermal issues for much of the region as well. Those are red flags for me personally. Despite the majority of the models trying to give me 2-5 inches, I remain very skeptical of this setup. This set up has such an easy way to bust. We have to trust the models that they're right in that the column is sufficiently cold enough for snow at the onset and I don't know if I've seen a setup like this before for the Atlanta area in my 16 years of model watching.
 
FFC mentioned specifically that the long range models struggle with the warm nose and the hi-res models will be needed for that, so don't be quick to dismiss ptype issues on 3k nam, fv3, etc. I'm looking forward to the next forecast discussion this afternoon, hopefully they will address that
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Ahh. Classic models showing ZR when it’s really IP
View attachment 161274View attachment 161275
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This is something else that we saw with the January 2022 storm, and the GSP and local TV mets completely ignored the soundings. They kept forecasting CLT metro to get .50-.75” of ice accrual when there ended up being .1” tops. Things stayed primarily sleet after the front end thump of snow. Another thing to keep in mind that it the WAA is as strong as what the NAM just showed, it will only make FGEN forced thump of snow at the beginning that much stronger… something the NAM won’t pick up on until literally within 8-12 hours out
 
Lowtown said:
Really starting to worry about QPF here in the NC Triad. Not trying to wishcast, but it seems odd that the system would dry up as much as some models are showing. This feels like a 3-6" potential here, and I'm gonna be pretty bummed if the snow shield goes poof as it gets over NC. Today's trends are critical for us, and it will be nice to start seeing the storm form on radar/satellite today to compare to model forecasts. Really hoping the 12z model suite stops (or reverses!) the drain on QPF. What we need here is certainly different than what the folks in GA and AL want, but a little more amplification would probably do us some good here. Enjoying tracking it nonetheless and appreciate all y'all's insight!
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Have lived here a long time. Seems like everytime a storm comes we always get into a dry slot or thunderstorms robbing it in the gulf. As a contractor I have seen this over the years alot. Like you many have said somebody can good amounts while others will get alot less. It seems like storm after storm the Winston-Salem area and to the west seem to always do better than models show. Another example of that was this past Sunday. I don't think we will get 3-6 inches but figure we will do ok until the next one. Either way better than the past three years. We actually are hooking plows up for first time in three years lol just in case
 
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