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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

POWERSTROKE said:
Have lived here a long time. Seems like everytime a storm comes we always get into a dry slot or thunderstorms robbing it in the gulf. As a contractor I have seen this over the years alot. Like you many have said somebody can good amounts while others will get alot less. It seems like storm after storm the Winston-Salem area and to the west seem to always do better than models show. Another example of that was this past Sunday. I don't think we will get 3-6 inches but figure we will do ok until the next one. Either way better than the past three years. We actually are hooking plows up for first time in three years lol just in case
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I know it's the south, and we always have some sort of issue here. Seems like we'll get something, but I always want more. At least what we do get will stick, and I think you'll be busy with the snow plow! Going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. Like you said, it's our best shot in years, so I need to just enjoy it!
 
Just a little recap for the most recent model runs:

NAM/RGEM/FGV3: all fairly amped up. Would imply a warm nose switching most people from snow to sleet, but still a great winter storm, lots of liquid. RGEM least amped of the 3.

Hrrr/RAP/ICON/EURO/Euro/AI: all look relatively flat and don't seem to have the 700-750mb warm nose issues. They're also a little drier overall. More snow further south, and more people staying all snow... but less liquid for NC. Still a decent event there though.
 
KyloG said:
RGEM makes a lot of sense...more mixing issue but precip holds together enough with cold enough temps to give central NC 2-4"

And I am not just saying that because I live in central NC...☃️

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I agree. Often with these systems that are projected to fizzle or shear out as it migrates east, both the surface and upper level energy will stay together a little longer and stronger than advertised. This depiction makes a lot of sense with the strength and precip.
 
Precip amount issues is my final call. I will let my first call from early this week stand. This just isn’t our storm for Atlanta, Charlotte or Raleigh. Enjoy what little frozen snow we can get to combat the dry surface. Widespread 1” amounts for some, some less near the bigger cities dealing with mixing, 2-4” for those who manage better returns. Any of the above cities could be 2-4” but it’s more likely to closer to 1” unless trends reverse. It’s hard forecasting snow it doesn’t take much qpf so I wouldn’t rule out 3-7” across western NC.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Precip amount issues is my final call. I will let my first call from early this week stand. This just isn’t our storm for Atlanta, Charlotte or Raleigh. Enjoy what little frozen snow we can get to combat the dry surface. Widespread 1” amounts for some, some less near the bigger cities dealing with mixing, 2-4” for those who manage better returns. Any of the above cities could be 2-4” but it’s more likely to closer to 1” unless trends reverse. It’s hard forecasting snow it doesn’t take much qpf so I wouldn’t rule out 3-7” across western NC.
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Atl has a far better chance than CLT or RAH.
 
KyloG said:
RGEM makes a lot of sense...more mixing issue but precip holds together enough with cold enough temps to give central NC 2-4"

And I am not just saying that because I live in central NC...☃️

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I've noticed the RGEM is trending colder on the warm nose. I think this correction may continue.
 
rburrel2 said:
Hang this last panel of the Hrrr in the louvre. She's a beaut.

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Man its Been a long time since we have been in a position to see a precip field that large heading this way with cold air in place. Regardless of precip type that's awesome. Really feel like that leading band will over perform and with a cold surface it should turn white quick :D
 
ITUSETOSNOW said:
Atl has a far better chance than CLT or RAH.
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ATL has a far better chance of being more sleet and mix than the other two. Probably end up being a bigger event in ATL during rush hour. Brad P just lowered his snowfall down to a trace for some of Charlotte and Raleigh, I’m not going that low.
 
crecre9 said:
sorry, i cut it off accidentally, i was really just showing the downward trends. here is the full image:
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No surprising to see with the warm nose NAM runs recently. It goes hand and hand with the NAM. Hopefully it’s wrong and will trend back up!
 
FallsLake said:
Haha, me too. This would be a normal storm for me:

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Normal -- Being on the line.
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Same here, just barely... It would actually be a pretty impressive warning criteria storm for RDU, especially given how cold it will be at the surface and how cold it'll be leading up to it. 2-4" of snow in these conditions will have a pretty high impact on roadways, etc. Crazy how the RGEM is now looking the best out of all the models. It's a whirlwind!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Models don’t wanna give us the eye candy today with the in between the 2 solutions. Either flat with barely any QPF or warm nosed all the way View attachment 161284
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Icon type solution is a winner for us. A couple of ripples of vorticity moving NE through the flow to locally enhance precip when they move through
 
BirdManDoomW said:
ATL has a far better chance of being more sleet and mix than the other two. Probably end up being a bigger event in ATL during rush hour. Brad P just lowered his snowfall down to a trace for some of Charlotte and Raleigh, I’m not going that low.
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There won't be a rush hour on Friday. Hopefully everyone stays home.
 
My gut says the RGEM will end up being more accurate but I also feel the closest to the actual low track will be the ICON, IMO. That means a track up the coast and darn near the coast and outer banks. As we approach go time, shortly before onset see what the Canadian HRDPS shows because they have the best resolution at 2.5km closely followed by the NAM3km and the HRRR3km
 
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Regardless of the snow amount, impacts are moderate to high for Atlanta. Impacts are low for Charlotte and Raleigh. This is due to qpf and Friday morning commute in Georgia vs less qpf middle of day going into less traveled weekend further east in NC. Looks like Brad P map also says the same so I would agree with that
 
jrips27 said:
Think these will trend slightly lower today and everyone say they overdid it. Warm nose is gonna be a problem for the metro. I’m surprised they went so high this early
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I can't remember what storm, but FFC went pretty aggressive for a storm a few years back and got burned -- anyone remember?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Regardless of the snow amount, impacts are moderate to high for Atlanta. Impacts are low for Charlotte and Raleigh. This is due to qpf and Friday morning commute in Georgia vs less qpf middle of day going into less traveled weekend further east in NC. Looks like Brad P map also says the same so I would agree with that
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Yeah I'm worried about the impacts for the ATL area as well. If NWS forecast ends up verifying, ATL would see nearly 3 inches of snow with a decent coating of ice and sleet on top. That has the makings of Atlanta snowjam 3.0 written all over it, especially since it would happen during the daytime hours. I trust Governor Kemp has his stuff together, working with local officials, and is preparing well.
 
Xlhunter3 said:
While the NAMS are warmer, RGEM has actually trended weaker and colder. Last 3 runs. Something to watch. View attachment 161295
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The RDPS's handling of the low is interesting. The drop from about Conway to CHS diminishes snow chances north of NC, but improves totals in a line from CLT to RDU.
 
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