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Wintry January 21-23 2025

CaryWx said:
what a fetch developing!

Help me out grit. Is that a huge fronto. going on sw-->ne from Rockingham-Pinehurst-Raleigh-Roanoke Rapids? It's solid purple! With orange 850 underneath
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Yep tightening temperature gradient aloft forcing rising motion. Just hope we aren’t getting NAM’d, but the overall recent modeling trend hasn’t stopped
 
Sctvman said:
That HRRR precip shield is NARROW. Not even Hattiesburg getting any snow from that
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Look at radar returns right now, precip as far north as the I 20 corridor, and filling in down to the Gulf. I think the models are missing the extent of the storm.
Edit: I realized I had been bitter/wishcasting about the model run for my location, so my apology to the mods
 
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WxBlue said:
HRRR is currently verifying too dry over northern LA, southern MS, and eastern TX. More moisture fell than expected.
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Would you say the hi res models often overdo the severity of precip cutoffs? I often see them cutting from 0.5” QPF to nothing in just a few miles which can happen but doesn’t seem like it happens as much in real life. It could just be confirmation bias on my part, though. I just have a hard time believing the cutoff in LA will verify that severely on the north side.
 
griteater said:
All I know is, keep flying them dam planes into the gulf if that’s what it takes

5 run trend of 700mb frontogenesis forcing for ascent working northwest

View attachment 166091
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Not sure about those crayon colors.. but is being under a purple circle good?? And yes FFC was also mentioning snow ratios saying we typically see 10/1 due to our temp profiles but we could be looking at 13/1 or 15/1… essentially less moisture created more snow.. the powdery kind..
 
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superjames1992 said:
Would you say the hi res models often overdo how severity of precip cutoffs? I often see them cutting from 0.5” QPF to nothing in just a few miles which can happen but doesn’t seem like it happens as much in real life. It could just be confirmation bias on my part, though. I just have a hard time believing the cutoff in LA will verify that severely on the north side.
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Nah, it's not just you. I don't think the cutoff will be that dramatic
 
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