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Wintry January 21-23 2025

KatrinaRuns said:
That has to be good for central AL, right??
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We've gone to being at the dinner table 4 days ago, to having to eat standing up, now back to at least getting a TV tray. I hope that helps describe where we are.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Overlay it onto who's seeing it. Either nobody in N LA reports or there's nothing there yet. Could be virga there
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I've watched the donut hole around Shreveport radar fill completely in. It has to be reaching the ground in places there and in NE Texas.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I've watched the donut hole around Shreveport radar fill completely in. It has to be reaching the ground in places there and in NE Texas.
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I wish we had more active users out there on here so we could know for sure what’s ground truth.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Map outputs are not looking to be accurate. FFC has been going on all day about this possibility due to low temps and how the atmosphere reacts. If they're insisting snow with a drier surface and we see a full saturated column with a large DGZ, I'd bet more than anything it's a decent rate.
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I checked my soundings on the 3km NAM and it has quite a few panels of high Omega from 10 am to 6 pm. That should be more than 1.3" I think.
 
The only real model that had snow in N. Lousiana around this time was FV3... people in parts of west Georgia or parts of Alabama your really watching that and hoping that moisture hangs on and moisture in air is just really underscaled.... If it doesnt evaporate overnight tomorrow morning a whole different story
 
NCSNOW said:
Agree. Im more focused on chasing those purple circles, than qpf maps. You want to luck up and get parked right underneath as many of those as possible
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Currently I’d prog (giving way for trends to continue) Hwy 73 Corridor …. Pageland SC up through Troy to Asheboro then who knows


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From GSP posted 930pm
Snow
flurries are probable in the afternoon as this lift strengthens, but
the chances of anything reaching the ground and accumulating are no
better than slight across northeast GA and the Upstate south/east
of I-85, maybe up to 30 pct across the Lakelands/lower Piedmont in
the very late afternoon. One could turn this around and say that it
is likely (or more than likely) that no accumulation will happen
in these areas. Even if something were to accumulate, it would
more than likely amount to less than one-quarter inch of a fluffy
dry snow. This is not enough to support issuing a Winter Weather
Advisory. In the mean time, we will mind the forecast guidance and
consider a reasonable worst-case scenario that would be around
one inch or so southeast of I-85. But, again, the overwhelming
consensus of the guidance is for a non-event.
 
DopplerWx said:
From GSP posted 930pm
Snow
flurries are probable in the afternoon as this lift strengthens, but
the chances of anything reaching the ground and accumulating are no
better than slight across northeast GA and the Upstate south/east
of I-85, maybe up to 30 pct across the Lakelands/lower Piedmont in
the very late afternoon. One could turn this around and say that it
is likely (or more than likely) that no accumulation will happen
in these areas. Even if something were to accumulate, it would
more than likely amount to less than one-quarter inch of a fluffy
dry snow. This is not enough to support issuing a Winter Weather
Advisory. In the mean time, we will mind the forecast guidance and
consider a reasonable worst-case scenario that would be around
one inch or so southeast of I-85. But, again, the overwhelming
consensus of the guidance is for a non-event.
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This was actually from their afternoon discussion
 
malak05 said:
The only real model that had snow in N. Lousiana around this time was FV3... people in parts of west Georgia or parts of Alabama your really watching that and hoping that moisture hangs on and moisture in air is just really underscaled.... If it doesnt evaporate overnight tomorrow morning a whole different story
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That’s not going to help much of us in AL, as it moves ESE, slowly sagging with the SLP.
 
Ethan80963 said:
I’ll be curious to see GSPs discussion tn most of this forecast area is getting put under gun with these trends and even more if they don’t stop. Also with what fro posted above the atmosphere looks to be moistening quite quickly so my guess is we see at least some over performing
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This is beginning to look a lot like Jan 2022's 2nd winter storm for our area. That one gave me around 1.5-2 inches of snow and I think Spartanburg got about an inch.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
ICON is probably the first negativity I’ve seen today with a less favorable H5 configuration but ---- that model, right ?
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At this point, I'm almost nowcasting. CAMs vs real-time observations. The warm advection looked stronger than even the NAM had showed on some of the RAOBs near the Gulf Coast.
 
Mahomeless said:
That’s not going to help much of us in AL, as it moves ESE, slowly sagging with the SLP.
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Well yeah the best bet for you guys is that it all overperforms and dry air isnt as deep or a hamper to the stream moving forward and moisture fetch does overperform too leading to more expansion in the northern edge... The FV3 still wasnt showing all the moisture and snow back into texas either.
 
Webberweather53 said:
At this point, I'm almost nowcasting. CAMs vs real-time observations. The warm advection looked stronger than even the NAM had showed on some of the RAOBs near the Gulf Coast.
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Yeah at this point snow/sleet is about to reach the ground at Shreveport at this rate… they weren’t forecasted to get much IMG_4442.png
 
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