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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Webberweather53 said:
Good god...

Even if we don't snow, this pattern is gonna put us in for a wild ride.

View attachment 60926
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At least it’s something different than we are used to. A hell of a lot different. Who knows where this will take us down the road. I can’t guarantee it will bring us snow, but I can guarantee it’s going to be different. Big blob of red heights hanging out around Greenland is ok with me. That’s Jimmy’s expert analysis for the day. It’s all I’ve got.
 
RAH now taking the potential NYD CAD more serious.

Ongoing, light rain in return flow Thursday morning will start to
lock in hybrid CAD as surface high pressure ridge retreats off the
Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Subtropical ridging will persist
over the SE US, however, with otherwise limited forcing for precip
on Thursday as a closed low forecast over the Mexican Plateau waits
a kicker shortwave to eject it northeastward toward the Great Lakes
on Friday. Highs Thursday should somewhat mild but limited by cloud
cover in the mid 50s to around 60...unless precip is more widespread
than forecast. Meanwhile, high pressure over the OH valley will
nudge a backdoor cold front into the Piedmont by Thursday night.
Combined with increasing southerly flow and isentropic lift, the
reinforced wedge airmass should limit highs to the upper 40s in the
NW Piedmont on Friday, with mid 60s possible the southern coastal
plain and good bust potential throughout the Piedmont. Expect a
couple periods of rain with qpf around 1 inch areawide. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible in the SE where dewpoints will be slightly
elevated, but deep layer ascent will be limited as the primary
shortwave passes well off the the northwest.
 
Could see a Feb 14’ type cold outbreak at some point. The ingredients are certainly there to push that polar jet way down off the pole. It will prob go to Europe though tbh
 
Rain Cold said:
Can someone help me out here? I'm not as well-versed on SSWEs and the technical evolution of tropospheric patterns thereafter, except to say that blocking tends to be favored.

I'm definitely all for blocking and have made that point for years. But how can we tell if a particular SSWE (this upcoming one, for example) allows for a distribution of cold air toward our side of the globe? It seems like most of the SSW episodes in recent years have displace the tPV into Russia.

Now, we see the effect of the SWWE with a block building in, which is nice, but so far, we're not seeing a reshuffling of the Pacific to allow for anything other than seasonably cool temps.

I do get the excitement over record high pressures, record low pressures, record blocking anomalies, etc. But if they're not going to lead to anything more than cool rainstorms, like what we've seen a lot of so far, that doesn't seem worth the excitement.

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but just trying to understand what to watch for a little better. Because the models are showing a lot of apparently exciting stuff, with the exception of cold and patterns supportive of widespread winter storms.
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Yeah, I to an extent have been thinking the same thing. However, keep in mind that days 1-10 are going to be trash, due to the +WPO +EPO, etc. Lots of folks (especially Webber) are getting excited because even though we look bad in the short-range, that bad look is an extreme textbook example of a strat warm event, which I've perceived to not be in the range of modeling. Obviously, I will get nervous if we get to day 10, and still see a blowtorch, albeit we're still on track. I posted this earlier, but this would be the modeled forecast during similar analogs:
 
FallsLake said:
RAH now taking the potential NYD CAD more serious.

Ongoing, light rain in return flow Thursday morning will start to
lock in hybrid CAD as surface high pressure ridge retreats off the
Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Subtropical ridging will persist
over the SE US, however, with otherwise limited forcing for precip
on Thursday as a closed low forecast over the Mexican Plateau waits
a kicker shortwave to eject it northeastward toward the Great Lakes
on Friday. Highs Thursday should somewhat mild but limited by cloud
cover in the mid 50s to around 60...unless precip is more widespread
than forecast. Meanwhile, high pressure over the OH valley will
nudge a backdoor cold front into the Piedmont by Thursday night.
Combined with increasing southerly flow and isentropic lift, the
reinforced wedge airmass should limit highs to the upper 40s in the
NW Piedmont on Friday, with mid 60s possible the southern coastal
plain and good bust potential throughout the Piedmont. Expect a
couple periods of rain with qpf around 1 inch areawide. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible in the SE where dewpoints will be slightly
elevated, but deep layer ascent will be limited as the primary
shortwave passes well off the the northwest.
Click to expand...

Why would it be any different than it has been all year? The CAD always hangs on here longer than forecasted, and any storms stay to our south and east.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, I to an extent have been thinking the same thing. However, keep in mind that days 1-10 are going to be trash, due to the +WPO +EPO, etc. Lots of folks (especially Webber) are getting excited because even though we look bad in the short-range, that bad look is an extreme textbook example of a strat warm event, which I've perceived to not be in the range of modeling. Obviously, I will get nervous if we get to day 10, and still see a blowtorch, albeit we're still on track. I posted this earlier, but this would be the modeled forecast during similar analogs:
Click to expand...


Winter returns to the SE near mid Jan. (hopefully). Get your tickets now for the wild ride to come! They're currently at a discount because of the deceptive mild period preceding it, which in all fairness isn't even a real bad SER blowtorch dominated pattern I don't think.
 
GaWx said:
Winter returns to the SE near mid Jan. (hopefully). Get your tickets now for the wild ride to come! They're currently at a discount because of the deceptive mild period preceding it.
Click to expand...
Yep, even in Judah’s write ups, he mentions that during the energy transfer/SSWE, the eastern US is often warm with western US troughing/below average temps, which matches well with what’s about to happen
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Could see a Feb 14’ type cold outbreak at some point. The ingredients are certainly there to push that polar jet way down off the pole. It will prob go to Europe though tbh
Click to expand...
I talked about this earlier, I wouldn't consider Feb '14 an analog-only because of the lack of -WPO. That excludes some of the big dog patterns like 1960, and ones that would otherwise cause the stars to align. I created a composite of all the events with a -NAO (<=-0.5), and +WPO (>=0.5). Regardless, a really exciting look!
1948-12-24 00z 16.png
Here's the date list:
The biggest example I saw from this look was January 2000.
'1948-12-24 00z', '1948-12-25 00z', '1950-12-28 00z', '1952-02-27 00z', '1952-03-15 00z', '1955-01-18 00z', '1956-01-23 00z', '1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-05 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1964-01-12 00z', '1964-01-13 00z', '1964-02-08 00z', '1966-01-23 00z', '1966-01-25 00z', '1966-01-26 00z', '1966-01-27 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-01-28 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1969-02-22 00z', '1969-02-23 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1971-01-01 00z', '1973-01-07 00z', '1977-12-30 00z', '1978-02-19 00z', '1978-02-20 00z', '1979-01-19 00z', '1979-01-20 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1983-04-18 00z', '1983-04-19 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-01-25 00z', '1987-01-26 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '1999-03-09 00z', '2000-01-22 00z', '2000-01-23 00z', '2000-01-24 00z', '2000-01-25 00z', '2001-01-08 00z', '2001-01-09 00z', '2004-02-26 00z', '2006-02-11 00z', '2007-01-21 00z', '2007-01-22 00z', '2009-02-02 00z', '2009-02-03 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2010-02-13 00z', '2010-03-02 00z', '2010-03-03 00z', '2018-03-12 00z'
 
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Ollie Williams said:
I talked about this earlier, I wouldn't consider Feb '14 an analog-only because of the lack of -WPO. That excludes patterns some of the big dog patterns like 1960, and ones that would otherwise cause the stars to align. I created a composite of all the events with a -NAO (<=-0.5), and +WPO (>=0.5).
View attachment 60959
Here's the date list:
The biggest example I saw from this look was January 2000.
'1948-12-24 00z', '1948-12-25 00z', '1950-12-28 00z', '1952-02-27 00z', '1952-03-15 00z', '1955-01-18 00z', '1956-01-23 00z', '1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-05 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1964-01-12 00z', '1964-01-13 00z', '1964-02-08 00z', '1966-01-23 00z', '1966-01-25 00z', '1966-01-26 00z', '1966-01-27 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-01-28 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1969-02-22 00z', '1969-02-23 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1971-01-01 00z', '1973-01-07 00z', '1977-12-30 00z', '1978-02-19 00z', '1978-02-20 00z', '1979-01-19 00z', '1979-01-20 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1983-04-18 00z', '1983-04-19 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-01-25 00z', '1987-01-26 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '1999-03-09 00z', '2000-01-22 00z', '2000-01-23 00z', '2000-01-24 00z', '2000-01-25 00z', '2001-01-08 00z', '2001-01-09 00z', '2004-02-26 00z', '2006-02-11 00z', '2007-01-21 00z', '2007-01-22 00z', '2009-02-02 00z', '2009-02-03 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2010-02-13 00z', '2010-03-02 00z', '2010-03-03 00z', '2018-03-12 00z'
Click to expand...

Quite a few good storms in there when you sort for +WPO/+EPO/-NAO >0.5 sigma. About twice as many Miller As vs Miller Bs, testament to the favorable -NAO/+PNA.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I talked about this earlier, I wouldn't consider Feb '14 an analog-only because of the lack of -WPO. That excludes patterns some of the big dog patterns like 1960, and ones that would otherwise cause the stars to align. I created a composite of all the events with a -NAO (<=-0.5), and +WPO (>=0.5).
View attachment 60959
Here's the date list:
The biggest example I saw from this look was January 2000.
'1948-12-24 00z', '1948-12-25 00z', '1950-12-28 00z', '1952-02-27 00z', '1952-03-15 00z', '1955-01-18 00z', '1956-01-23 00z', '1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-05 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1964-01-12 00z', '1964-01-13 00z', '1964-02-08 00z', '1966-01-23 00z', '1966-01-25 00z', '1966-01-26 00z', '1966-01-27 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-01-28 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1969-02-22 00z', '1969-02-23 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1971-01-01 00z', '1973-01-07 00z', '1977-12-30 00z', '1978-02-19 00z', '1978-02-20 00z', '1979-01-19 00z', '1979-01-20 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1983-04-18 00z', '1983-04-19 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-01-25 00z', '1987-01-26 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '1999-03-09 00z', '2000-01-22 00z', '2000-01-23 00z', '2000-01-24 00z', '2000-01-25 00z', '2001-01-08 00z', '2001-01-09 00z', '2004-02-26 00z', '2006-02-11 00z', '2007-01-21 00z', '2007-01-22 00z', '2009-02-02 00z', '2009-02-03 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2010-02-13 00z', '2010-03-02 00z', '2010-03-03 00z', '2018-03-12 00z'
Click to expand...
Notice that the pacific isn’t even that good either in the mean, just takes a few days worth of Weak +PNA, this is more reminiscent of a Niño type look
 
Ollie Williams said:
I talked about this earlier, I wouldn't consider Feb '14 an analog-only because of the lack of -WPO. That excludes some of the big dog patterns like 1960, and ones that would otherwise cause the stars to align. I created a composite of all the events with a -NAO (<=-0.5), and +WPO (>=0.5). Regardless, a really exciting look!
View attachment 60959
Here's the date list:
The biggest example I saw from this look was January 2000.
'1948-12-24 00z', '1948-12-25 00z', '1950-12-28 00z', '1952-02-27 00z', '1952-03-15 00z', '1955-01-18 00z', '1956-01-23 00z', '1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-05 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1964-01-12 00z', '1964-01-13 00z', '1964-02-08 00z', '1966-01-23 00z', '1966-01-25 00z', '1966-01-26 00z', '1966-01-27 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-01-28 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1969-02-22 00z', '1969-02-23 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1971-01-01 00z', '1973-01-07 00z', '1977-12-30 00z', '1978-02-19 00z', '1978-02-20 00z', '1979-01-19 00z', '1979-01-20 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1983-04-18 00z', '1983-04-19 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-01-25 00z', '1987-01-26 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '1999-03-09 00z', '2000-01-22 00z', '2000-01-23 00z', '2000-01-24 00z', '2000-01-25 00z', '2001-01-08 00z', '2001-01-09 00z', '2004-02-26 00z', '2006-02-11 00z', '2007-01-21 00z', '2007-01-22 00z', '2009-02-02 00z', '2009-02-03 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2010-02-13 00z', '2010-03-02 00z', '2010-03-03 00z', '2018-03-12 00z'
Click to expand...
Out of curiosity, what do you use as a database for this kind of query?
 
ajr said:
Out of curiosity, what do you use as a database for this kind of query?
Click to expand...
It's all done "in-house" with Python. I downloaded every single 500mb file from the ERA-5 database (site linked below):

Copernicus Climate Data Store | Copernicus Climate Data Store

cds.climate.copernicus.eu cds.climate.copernicus.eu
Then I used a @Webberweather53's excel file that he produced that has all daily NAO, WPO, EPO, snow dates, etc to filter all of the dates/categories I downloaded from the ERA-5 dataset that I want to select.
http://www.webberweather.com/about.html titled (Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-Present))
 
Ollie Williams said:
It has begun...
Click to expand...

ed745093e8f7789950e065e840effe7d.jpg
 
Ollie Williams said:
I took a look at the H5 configuration for January 2000, unfortunately, I don't think it really matches the LR modeling, but you never know!
View attachment 60960
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Good post. What you may remember with the 2000 storm is how cold it got. You can see by your map above how much of a connection to arctic air we had. It got really, really cold after that storm for a good while. One for the ages.
 
KyloG said:
Midland TX avg about 2” snow per year. Euro showing 10-12”. I imagine this would be comparable to Atlanta getting a double digit snowfall.

View attachment 60910
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That disappoints me because I know that will never be replicated here. Oh well, as long as something can produce measurable snow between now and March I’ll take it.
 
Even this look is adjustable if you strengthen that low near the northeast, just looking for fun though, and this is honestly still a bit before the big timeframe 11D5D693-CA22-46ED-941E-6B54CD0BE115.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
Good post. What you may remember with the 2000 storm is how cold it got. You can see by your map above how much of a connection to arctic air we had. It got really, really cold after that storm for a good while. One for the ages.
Click to expand...

Yeap I saw it get down to -3 F while working at the RDU ASOS. My face went numb just from the breeze created while walking.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The godfather of NC winter storms likely had a "crappy" N Pacific, strong west-based -NAO/Baffin Bay blocking, & transient +PNA. I'll take this every day of the week over Jan 2000 & it's honestly the kind of pattern we could be looking forward to at some pt in mid-January or so.

????

Feb 25-Mar 2 1927 North America z500.gif


March 1-3 1927 NC Snowmap.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Good post. What you may remember with the 2000 storm is how cold it got. You can see by your map above how much of a connection to arctic air we had. It got really, really cold after that storm for a good while. One for the ages.
Click to expand...
It was really cold for those of us that lost power
 
Webberweather53 said:
The godfather of NC winter storms likely had a "crappy" N Pacific, strong west-based -NAO/Baffin Bay blocking, & transient +PNA. I'll take this every day of the week over Jan 2000 & it's honestly the kind of pattern we could be looking forward to at some pt in mid-January or so.



View attachment 60969


View attachment 60970
Click to expand...

Lol brick would have died with these totals


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
The godfather of NC winter storms likely had a "crappy" N Pacific, strong west-based -NAO/Baffin Bay blocking, & transient +PNA. I'll take this every day of the week over Jan 2000 & it's honestly the kind of pattern we could be looking forward to at some pt in mid-January or so.

????

View attachment 60969


View attachment 60970
Click to expand...
If you compare the 1927 500 mb chart with a similar one in the upcoming pattern, how would surface temps across NA compare? I would expect both patterns would be warmer than the pattern that yielded January 2000.

My guess would be 1927 would be colder across the continent, given we live in a warmer world now. Therefore, my fear is that marginal patterns of the past that created great SE snows may not work nowadays, meaning we need a fairly favorable pattern plus air that is quite cold, relative to normal, nearby. But maybe that assumption is in error.
 
Rain Cold said:
If you compare the 1927 500 mb chart with a similar one in the upcoming pattern, how would surface temps across NA compare? I would expect both patterns would be warmer than the pattern that yielded January 2000.

My guess would be 1927 would be colder across the continent, given we live in a warmer world now. Therefore, my fear is that marginal patterns of the past that created great SE snows may not work nowadays, meaning we need a fairly favorable pattern plus air that is quite cold, relative to normal, nearby. But maybe that assumption is in error.
Click to expand...

1927 is colder anomaly-wise than Jan 2000 but warmer in the means because it's early March and not mid-late Jan. Surface observations, specifically SLP are directly assimilated by NOAA 20CRv3 so they're likely to be much more reliable than 500mb

1609283792366.png


1609283805402.png
 
Rain Cold said:
My guess would be 1927 would be colder across the continent, given we live in a warmer world now. Therefore, my fear is that marginal patterns of the past that created great SE snows may not work nowadays, meaning we need a fairly favorable pattern plus air that is quite cold, relative to normal, nearby. But maybe that assumption is in error.
Click to expand...

I won't speak to the climate part, but at least over here in the mid south the 1920s were absolutely awful for snow. I believe it was the worst decade of the century for Nashville.
 
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