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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
Personally February 2014 is the last double digit snow I remember, got 10-11 in that one
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I believe that December 2018 was the only time I got double digits this decade. Although, January 2018, February 2014, and February 2015 were close calls.


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How far NW do y’all think this one will go, we should do a over/under on this for rainfall amounts 446A0741-B660-46AA-A08E-B092F5F84F54.gif
 
KyloG said:
I guess these were close. No complaints, happy to take a repeat on any of these.
View attachment 61017View attachment 61018View attachment 61019
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I would take them all. I think the good news is we aren't completely losing double digit storms nearby. Maybe I'm just dabbling too much into the big data and analytics world at work and it's skewing my weather perspective but I can't help but feel like the rdu south to fay to cae region is approaching that were due for a big one window
 
gfs_asnow_scus_14.png
I'm 4 hours away from this potential. Ponca city Oklahoma here I come
 
SD said:
Hot dry SE ridge summer incoming. Better start paying extra on my water bill to get some credit
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Yea you better, I always find a way with the convergence zone or lee trough convection, always nice rubbing it in during the summer, getting 7 severe thunderstorm warnings was sure a treat this past July ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like a sounding I’d see near a tropical system or in the tropics, or here during July, moist adiabatic lapse rates lol with warm mid levels, wtf lol
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I had to give a class briefing for that mid-November event, actually. Went and dug up the BUFKIT sounding I used in that. Pretty similar stuff (this is for KRDU).
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RVD said:
I had to give a class briefing for that mid-November event, actually. Went and dug up the BUFKIT sounding I used in that. Pretty similar stuff (this is for KRDU).
View attachment 61033
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That stuff had some solid thunder/wind when that MCSish like line moved thru but dumped tons of rain, had flooding with that one, but yeah classic moist soundings with large PWAT and piss poor lapse rates/deep warm cloud layer, looks about right for some heavy rain, crazy to be talking about this sort of setup in January
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That stuff had some solid thunder/wind when that MCSish like line moved thru but dumped tons of rain, had flooding with that one, but yeah classic moist soundings with large PWAT and piss poor lapse rates/deep warm cloud layer, looks about right for some heavy rain, crazy to be talking about this sort of setup in January
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Note on the side of the BUFKIT graphic it says "Precip: 0.916." As in, NAM was forecasting 0.916"/hr. Don't think that verified, but it was a crazy intense band for sure.
 
Pretty strong signal for severe weather around that timeframe (D10-12) given the active pac jet and eastern US ridging on the gfs/gefs and even EPS
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is what we’re looking for ( it’s the 384 hour GFS I know) but this is basically the potential you get with these blocks shown here View attachment 61042
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Yup, beat me too it! Awesome look at the end of the GFS. Definitely storm potential if that look verified verbatim!
BE9590C2-782C-4DDC-92F0-85B3DBF28273.png
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Better late than never, the 0Z GEFS has finally resumed nearly 2 hours late! It may take til after 3 AM to finish!
 
Lickwx said:
It can happen anytime but the given odds on any day of it happening are incredibly low lol. Wonder how the 2020s will be snow wise , lower or higher than the 2010s. Odds would say higher but who knows .
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Since reliable records began in the 1890s, the 2010s were the least snowy decade at RDU by over a foot. Only 39.5" - about one-third behind the 1981-2010 averages. The next-least snowy decade was actually 1941-1950 with 54".
 
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