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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SnowNiner said:
Griteater has a great thread on twitter on where we are and what to look for. Seems like we need the SSW to mix things up and get the MJO moving and improve the pacific?

https://twitter.com/griteater?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1328755841982402574|twgr^&ref_url=https://www.33andrain.com/index.php?app=coremodule=systemcontroller=embedurl=https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1328755841982402574?s=20
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He mentions exactly what I thought of, wrt to convection in the tropics
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Difference this time is we’re not dealing with vodka cold like that setup
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We’ll be lucky to just have seasonal temps the first half of January.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ajr said:
This is great. I’ll just add that I’m not sure if the Chapel Hill area saw any flakes. Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I didn’t see any.
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Someone from Chapel Hill in this forum did and there were reports in adjacent Durham & Pittsboro. Radar also seemed to support their obs at the time, as the beginning of the event even -dBz values were reaching the ground as snow. Another classic example of why so many trace/marginal events go undetected in the historical record
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
@Webberweather53
I noticed that with the SSWE at 10mb, 10mb >> 30mb then 50mb height anomalies cool towards the tropics, could that enhance convection/perhaps impact the MJO, just thought given a cooler strat towards the tropical areas could perhaps enhance convection ? Still just trying to learn a bit more here View attachment 60450View attachment 60451
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I'll definitely refer you to griteater's twitter thread as a good starting point, I came across some cool literature several years ago that talked about the effect of sudden stratospheric warming on the Brewer Dobson Circulation, and its the impact on the BDC affects the formation of cirrus clouds and static stability near the tropical tropopause. Sudden warmings don't always lead to enhanced MJO activity per say as I've witnessed first hand over the past few years (makes sense as the MJO only occupies the 20-90 temporal scale and even as we currently define it, only is ~25-33% of the total variance, you can get convection at all sorts of time-scales and imo perhaps a moist CC Kelvin Wave is more feasible & even that would have significant implications as you're probably aware). Such warmings also have a significant effect on the QBO and will favor slow down of the easterlies and/or as we saw this past summer in the southern hemisphere, even potentially complete destruction of west QBO. Crazy
 
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