• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Rain Cold said:
Can someone help me out here? I'm not as well-versed on SSWEs and the technical evolution of tropospheric patterns thereafter, except to say that blocking tends to be favored.

I'm definitely all for blocking and have made that point for years. But how can we tell if a particular SSWE (this upcoming one, for example) allows for a distribution of cold air toward our side of the globe? It seems like most of the SSW episodes in recent years have displace the tPV into Russia.

Now, we see the effect of the SWWE with a block building in, which is nice, but so far, we're not seeing a reshuffling of the Pacific to allow for anything other than seasonably cool temps.

I do get the excitement over record high pressures, record low pressures, record blocking anomalies, etc. But if they're not going to lead to anything more than cool rainstorms, like what we've seen a lot of so far, that doesn't seem worth the excitement.

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but just trying to understand what to watch for a little better. Because the models are showing a lot of apparently exciting stuff, with the exception of cold and patterns supportive of widespread winter storms.
Click to expand...
Excellent question.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This winter so far and what's forthcoming is extremely Nino-esque. Fab feb usually doesn't apply in La Ninas but I think this year is going to break that mold much like how it's been anything but a NINA sensible wx wise in N America.
Click to expand...
Well that’s just fine with me... we’ve certainly had some Ninos lately that acted like Ninas.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Sure do love me some lightning shots in early January View attachment 60978
Click to expand...

Usually those yellows and red streaks on a global model mean a CP scheme is kicking into gear, but I don't think that would be convective in nature, actually. Looks very much like an atmospheric river tapping into moisture stretching all the way back to the E-Pac.
1609290764899.png

The really prolific atmospheric rivers occur over in the Pacific (the "Pineapple Express"), but we get versions with shorter fetches here that can result in notable floods (the Joaquin flooding is a really extreme example that was enhanced by the presence of the hurricane, but fundamentally the pivoting band of precip over SC was more atmospheric river than TC). Those Joaquin rains were heavy but not severe. The GFS, which shows a more suppressed/SE solution vs. the ICON (lol), has practically no CAPE even when it gives coastal GA and SC 2-4":
ar_cape.gif
ar_total.png
Worth watching these totals as they're liable to trend further NW and maybe more intense.
 
RVD said:
Usually those yellows and red streaks on a global model mean a CP scheme is kicking into gear, but I don't think that would be convective in nature, actually. Looks very much like an atmospheric river tapping into moisture stretching all the way back to the E-Pac.
View attachment 60987

The really prolific atmospheric rivers occur over in the Pacific (the "Pineapple Express"), but we get versions with shorter fetches here that can result in notable floods (the Joaquin flooding is a really extreme example that was enhanced by the presence of the hurricane, but fundamentally the pivoting band of precip over SC was more atmospheric river than TC). Those Joaquin rains were heavy but not severe. The GFS, which shows a more suppressed/SE solution vs. the ICON (lol), has practically no CAPE even when it gives coastal GA and SC 2-4":
View attachment 60989
View attachment 60990
Worth watching these totals as they're liable to trend further NW and maybe more intense.
Click to expand...

-Yep, looking at soundings/the quality of the moisture
Straight up tropical
got 2 inch PWATs hanging out to our south, could we break more PWAT records like how we did in November if it does trend NW? Lol 07F52154-B585-4FB6-A1CA-20304A0D73EE.pngFDCA6382-3725-4911-8072-152E947B96FE.pngEA0379BA-2434-4C3E-BD0D-8F2C215A196A.png7305AE8C-0E07-4FD1-B1D4-403B9FDE0077.png
 
See, I can manage a day or two way above average temp wise if we get something exciting to track. Love severe weather and I love elevated storms. That thunder rolls for what seems like forever. As long as we get our "monster" as far as winter wx goes, I am okay with this weekend's system, but we have to produce. I can't another month of, "well maybe 2 weeks from now." ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly reminds me of a SE version (without the TC) of what we had in mid November, stuff straight out the tropics View attachment 60999View attachment 61000View attachment 61001
Click to expand...
Yup, that too was arguably an atmospheric river event. Interesting that we're looking at getting two of these in just a few months. I've never known them to be terribly common, but they do occur on occasion.

Thanks for posting better graphics and more models showing this than what I had!
 
Went from a severe threat to a wedge with elevated storms on the first one ? hey if the next day is warm I’ll take it F78B7241-35E7-4307-BBF1-CC5978103B3B.png431EE965-F8A4-46F7-B151-9FE199594B8B.png
 
RVD said:
Yup, that too was arguably an atmospheric river event. Interesting that we're looking at getting two of these in just a few months. I've never known them to be terribly common, but they do occur on occasion.

Thanks for posting better graphics and more models showing this than what I had!
Click to expand...
Yeah they can happen especially in the late summer/fall around here, but I honestly don’t remember much of these in the winter and January especially (other than the ones we’ve had on the edge of the southeast ridge in recent winters with elevated thunderstorms but I wouldn’t even call those atmospheric river events or are they ? Lol)
 
Weatherlover92 said:
That disappoints me because I know that will never be replicated here. Oh well, as long as something can produce measurable snow between now and March I’ll take it.
Click to expand...

It’s been almost 20 years for Raleigh and it’s difficult to imagine it happening again. But, I guess that’s why we do this...hope. A 3-4” for Raleigh is a home run in my book.
 
Lickwx said:
It can happen anytime but the given odds on any day of it happening are incredibly low lol. Wonder how the 2020s will be snow wise , lower or higher than the 2010s. Odds would say higher but who knows .
Click to expand...
Warming climate vs regression to the mean imo yields similar to slightly more than the 2010s
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah they can happen especially in the late summer/fall around here, but I honestly don’t remember much of these in the winter and January especially (other than the ones we’ve had on the edge of the southeast ridge in recent winters with elevated thunderstorms but I wouldn’t even call those atmospheric river events or are they ? Lol)
Click to expand...

Not familiar enough with this sort of setup you're describing to say for sure, but I don't think so. You wouldn't see much of any convective precipitation in an atmospheric river. The atmospheric rivers are usually concentrated strips of very moist air that are pulled from the tropics by a low level jet ahead of the cold front (a sort of juiced up subset of the warm conveyor belt/warm sector). But the near-saturated nature of this air means the synoptic forcing for ascent by the approaching upper level trough drives a deep moist adiabatic profile. The low level jet/moisture transport is reinforced by the resulting latent heat release.

I think this is a bit less familiar because the framework of an atmospheric river just doesn't get applied for eastern US weather as much as it does out west (where the rivers are often the biggest deal weather-wise), but definitely on occasion a similar phenomena will occur when developing cyclones tap into deep tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico and/or western Atlantic.
 
KyloG said:
A 10” storm seems insurmountable. We havent had a 10” winter in 17 years. One can hope though.
Click to expand...
Eh when you think about it we had some opportunities this decade but they were just a little north east south west. Realistically just looking at it statistically and taking the randomness of weather out of the equation we are probably closer than we know
 
SD said:
Eh when you think about it we had some opportunities this decade but they were just a little north east south west. Realistically just looking at it statistically and taking the randomness of weather out of the equation we are probably closer than we know
Click to expand...

I guess these were close. No complaints, happy to take a repeat on any of these.
DE7CE65B-90D0-4B23-997F-DD4D70E01270.pngC2AC5B5D-BA8C-4855-810F-2A69B116E357.gifAA81F239-BC36-4B86-9340-BD3B7711BABF.gif
 
SD said:
Eh when you think about it we had some opportunities this decade but they were just a little north east south west. Realistically just looking at it statistically and taking the randomness of weather out of the equation we are probably closer than we know
Click to expand...

Places as close as Chapel Hill got >10" on Jan. 2018, and Hillsborough twice that year (December, I do believe). I think far northern Wake got close to or over double digits in Dec. 2018 even. Of course the Wake County gradient usually nicely coincides with places like Hillsborough (or better: Roxboro) scoring, so maybe that isn't much comfort. I was in Raleigh for both 2018 storms.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top