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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SD said:
The bump off the west coast is nice speaking regionally, speaking for our backyard it would be nice if it were shifted east some.
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Getting better as the trough near the Aleutians retrogrades, any sort of +PNA with that block gives us all sorts of potential, let’s hope we get that retrogression as that opens the door to some good things EEB11D8E-CF1C-4E07-BCB5-2E327C8BC68E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Getting better as the trough near the Aleutians retrogrades, any sort of +PNA with that block gives us all sorts of potential, let’s hope we get that retrogression as that opens the door to some good things View attachment 60904
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The only thing that sucks is the fact that the retrogression also steals our trop PV so we would be looking at seasonable cold at best during this period but that would probably be enough. If that retrogression continued it would be interesting to see where we got into the day 20-25-30 range if we could pop enough PNA to entice some cross polar flow that would be enhanced by the residual NAO.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I know you are good with analogs so I'll come to you with this sir!

We know La Nina is famous for torching the back half of winter. We know 10-11 went to poop after mid Jan. But that was because the-NAO broke down. Are there any years that were moderate to strong Nina's that had extreme blocking hold trough Jan and Feb? If so how did those turn out down our way?
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Good Question! From what I've read from HM, the leading cause of this pattern is the Ural Blocking and the Aleutian low caused by the +EAMT really have no correlation in regards to Enso. However, if you do add the filter of La Nina, these are your best analogs: "1973, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2011."

1973- Gave us the major Wilmington Christmas storm and a total NC event.
1974- Mostly a dud except for one storm in December 1973
1975- Not too much that year, except for one CAD NC storm
1988- We got our big dog that year.
2000- Epic January, NC got their Big Dog.
2005- Relatively a dud except for a storm that I think a lot of the board got an event.
2011- Similar deal to 2005

Really mostly hits, although there were some misses. The -NAO's during those winters in the middle of the winter was fairly transient (One week-long), but did produce some fairly good storms.
 
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SD said:
The only thing that sucks is the fact that the retrogression also steals our trop PV so we would be looking at seasonable cold at best during this period but that would probably be enough. If that retrogression continued it would be interesting to see where we got into the day 20-25-30 range if we could pop enough PNA to entice some cross polar flow that would be enhanced by the residual NAO.
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That’s what I was hoping for, something like January 2018 for example where we got enough retrogression for that big, cold +PNAED59A7DC-C205-41BE-9E8E-E6647F775F0B.pngAD6852DB-31AF-4A07-B5FF-1C24AFCC733C.gif
 
Ollie Williams said:
Good Question! From what I've read from HM, the leading cause of this pattern is the Ural Blocking and the Aleutian low caused by the +EAMT really have no correlation in regards to Enso. However, if you do add the filter of La Nina, these are your best analogs: "1973, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2011." Not 2010, because I believe it had a fairly different look in the pacific.

1973- Gave us the major Wilmington Christmas storm and a total NC event.
1974- Mostly a dud except for one storm in December 1973
1975- Not too much that year, except for one CAD NC storm
1988- We got our big dog that year.
2000- Epic January, NC got their Big Dog.
2005- Relatively a dud except for a storm that I think a lot of the board got an event.
2011- Similar deal to 2005

Really mostly hits, although there were some misses. The -NAO's during those winters in the middle of the winter was fairly transient (One week-long), but did produce some fairly good storms.
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We also had a nice snowstorm in late March 1974.

March 25-26 1974 NC Snowmap.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
Good Question! From what I've read from HM, the leading cause of this pattern is the Ural Blocking and the Aleutian low caused by the +EAMT really have no correlation in regards to Enso. However, if you do add the filter of La Nina, these are your best analogs: "1973, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2011." Not 2010, because I believe it had a fairly different look in the pacific.

1973- Gave us the major Wilmington Christmas storm and a total NC event.
1974- Mostly a dud except for one storm in December 1973
1975- Not too much that year, except for one CAD NC storm
1988- We got our big dog that year.
2000- Epic January, NC got their Big Dog.
2005- Relatively a dud except for a storm that I think a lot of the board got an event.
2011- Similar deal to 2005

Really mostly hits, although there were some misses. The -NAO's during those winters in the middle of the winter was fairly transient (One week-long), but did produce some fairly good storms.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the analysis! If the NAO is long lived it seems to favor a hit or two!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol holy crap.

Every ECMWF run in the past 3 days has been trending stronger w/ this low over the Aleutians.


New full res Euro is down to 918, which is getting awfully close to the all-time record for any extratropical cyclone.

WOW

View attachment 60917
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Sure wish we'd get one of these really intense interesting features to help our pattern out some. Cool system nonetheless.
 
Rain Cold said:
Sure wish we'd get one of these really intense interesting features to help our pattern out some. Cool system nonetheless.
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The trend here w/ this system and the Mongolia sfc high this past week is certainly making me wonder if the NWP models are actually grossly underestimating the SSWE that's probably coming in January
 
IMO, throw out years like March 1960 only because their cold was routed with a -WPO. We're dealing with a +WPO, so temps should be fairly marginal until we tap into the Stratosphere, or get ridging to retrograde to Alaska, that's what the first week of January should be meh. Regardless, if I were you, I'd be incredibly excited about the upcoming weeks!
 
Over time you can see that stuff under the block sorta “retrograde” over time and enhance the block, some very Interesting stuff 38900489-63CF-4B0C-949C-51368EDE14CA.pngC674C2B6-BB33-4E66-8361-FB14204E8442.pngD1EA30F3-37EB-479F-A554-34072F1EDF17.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
If this verifies, prepare for an all you can eat buffet of -AO/-NAO for the rest of this winter.

View attachment 60935


View attachment 60936
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Myfrotho704_ said:
If we sniff even a transient +PNA things get even more interesting real quickView attachment 60938View attachment 60939View attachment 60940
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I hope so. If we can hang on to a -NAO this long and not get anything out of it then we just need to face the facts that what used to give us snow just doesn't work the same way anymore.
 
Can someone help me out here? I'm not as well-versed on SSWEs and the technical evolution of tropospheric patterns thereafter, except to say that blocking tends to be favored.

I'm definitely all for blocking and have made that point for years. But how can we tell if a particular SSWE (this upcoming one, for example) allows for a distribution of cold air toward our side of the globe? It seems like most of the SSW episodes in recent years have displace the tPV into Russia.

Now, we see the effect of the SWWE with a block building in, which is nice, but so far, we're not seeing a reshuffling of the Pacific to allow for anything other than seasonably cool temps.

I do get the excitement over record high pressures, record low pressures, record blocking anomalies, etc. But if they're not going to lead to anything more than cool rainstorms, like what we've seen a lot of so far, that doesn't seem worth the excitement.

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but just trying to understand what to watch for a little better. Because the models are showing a lot of apparently exciting stuff, with the exception of cold and patterns supportive of widespread winter storms.
 
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