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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

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SnowNiner said:
The other thing that I think we're fighting a bit (in addition to the AK vortex) is the Atlantic block really for most of the first week of January is too far east IMO. I'd like to get the core of the block west of Greenland in Baffin bay. It kind of gets there at the very end of the GEFS run, but it's late to the party. Earlier it looked it was going to set up nicely there the first week, but it's backed off of it I think. With the pacific and not ideal Atlantic block, not excited for the first half of January, but we'll see I guess. At least we're not last year.

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Don’t read too much into the exact placement of the block on a long range ensemble mean, it’s almost always going to be dampened & equatorward vs reality (which suggests it could be too far SE). Odds are, if it’s very amped as the ensemble already suggests, it will retrograde west in time as it advects itself against the mean westerly flow.
 
Storm5 said:
For areas west of the apps our best chance is the New Year’s Eve system. We want the low further south . Right now it favors western Tennessee.

The weekend system. Would most likely be a late bloomer and favors the Carolinas


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Further South meaning like the gfs


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If nothing else this is impressive to look at. Euro shows a split at 10mb...I didn't realize a split favored cold in Eurasia and not necessarily in the conus.

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KyloG said:
If nothing else this is impressive to look at. Euro shows a split at 10mb...I didn't realize a split favored cold in Eurasia and not necessarily in the conus.

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There could be some wave 2 at the end, but this is mostly a displacement/k=1 event. Stratosphere-induced temperature anomalies are stronger and more significant overall in Eurasia than the CONUS. Only the SE & eastern US have significant temperature anomalies from sudden warmings in the lower 48 and those anomalies are even more significant if you sort for SSWEs during El Ninos which are more frequently displacement type (like this one will be).

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