Avalanche
Member
Murphy's Law vs Law of Averagespersistent -NAO, SSWevent, weakening La Nina, what could go wrong? ()
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
- Messages
- 309
- Reaction score
- 666
You forgot one more thing... 2020?
Lostnthaweather85
Member
Talking about the absence of noctilucent clouds showing an anomalous atmosphere. I remember them talking about this a month or so ago but I had just assumed things had returned to normal but I guess not.
Avalanche
Member
Im a novice here. What does this mean, lack of moisture at a certain level, cirrus clouds?
Stormlover
Member
but it's showing 2021You forgot one more thing... 2020?
Lostnthaweather85
Member
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/12/02/strange-antarctic-weather-extends-to-the-edge-of-space/
This gives a little more info. I don’t want to speculate too much. These are things I just follow and find interesting. I don’t have enough education in it to speculate too much. Sorry my links don’t seem to be working but you should be able to copy and paste them.
ATLwxfan
Member
Judah feels there is good evidence for continued eastern ridging through mid January. That’s a good chunk of time though maybe we flip the switch in February.
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You forgot one more thing... 2020?
Not to be "that guy," but by then, it will technically be 2021...???
Damn that blog post is good. One smart mf there..
Cold bottling up in all the wrong places. This won’t end well, unfortunately.
Siberian Cold week or 10 days after that.. Book it.
Source region is a wiener roast. January 9th and it’s 35 degrees in northern Ontario. Pardon me while I slam my nuts in a 3 ring binder. 
NCSNOW
Member
Need +PNA. Have all the atlantic blocking you want. It want mean didley without pac cooperation for the SE. We need Cold and the pac dictates that for us. Just my opinion.
LMAO! what. is. going. on
I know it's silly to compare, but a lot of the memorable Siberian outbreaks in the past were preceded a few weeks before with very warm weather.
GFS just not handling the Jan 2021 PV Super Destruction/Displacement Event very well.. (reaches hand into grab bag of weather cliches...)
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This a snow look? @Rain Cold 
ouch! i mean that nut thing not tje torch
I realize this is the long range GFS and I’m mainly passing the time right now posting on here, BUT I will say this is a totally hopeless look here. Totally hopeless.
"We're all cliff diving on Dec. 29th? It will all look completely different in three days, guys."
Stewpoint Stan
Stewpoint Stan
That was a stressful run. Goodnight
Not that different from the previous run really:
ATLwxfan
Member
Consistent with Judah’s blog. You really get the feeling that January is a total waste. Then the topics will waffle from “needing pre-emergent” to “sun angle” and “2 or 3 week window to score before spring”
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Iceagewhereartthou
Member
That's all you Jimmy. I won't be joining in on that activity!?
I really don’t understand all this freaking out about January. I would toss the first 10 days or so, but we still have a raging -NAO with no end in sight, a never ending supply of +EAMT, and a better (not beautiful), Pacific to give us some transient +PNA at times, which really would have potential to produce a storm. Heck, we even have a very classic and extreme signal for a SSWE! So beyond that, I’m incredibly excited!
Although that continued deepening of Full Eastern North American Continental warmth has to be a bit concerning. Plus the Pacific is wave after wave after wave. Alaska never gets too warm. To me it's almost like the PV displacement is shoving into Eurasia, not N. America. Time will tell...
Week 3 on the EPS and GEFS look. Week 4 is more of the same so back half of January is modeled to be good.
Sorry if this was posted above, but just waking up and taking a look.
Sorry if this was posted above, but just waking up and taking a look.
Yeah imo our best chance to score is probably a week or so after this sort of pattern has settled in place
Great thread here
packfan98
Moderator
It was a little over my head. Care to summarize (and dumb it down a bit)?
ajr
Member
That's an awesome thread, thanks for sharing
Basically, he looked for analogs that featured a Ural ridge, Aleutian low, SSW, in non-Nino years (it sounds like Nino/Nina isn't really driving this pattern we're in), and this is the punchline (we should look for cold in our part of the world 20-30 days post SSW event, so ~end of January for us):
Always 10 days away
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
As I understand it, the predicted SSW/PV split results in a few decent analogs for winter weather in the East.
ajr
Member
Just for fun.. some of the analogs highlighted above (via @Webberweather53's website -- http://www.webberweather.com/):
1960 - featured an epic March:
2004 - had a fairly active Jan-Feb, including this storm:
2006 was a dud except for this storm:
1960 - featured an epic March:
2004 - had a fairly active Jan-Feb, including this storm:
2006 was a dud except for this storm:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Late Jan/early Feb is right in the peak of our snow climo, pattern doesn't look horrible prior to then either.
Feel like come end of Jan into Feb we could moving towards a nina GOA/aleutian ridge and with the blocking, hopefully in place, could be a 60's style winter. Of course I am setting myself up for disappointment expecting that but one can hope....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Feel like come end of Jan into Feb we could moving towards a nina GOA/aleutian ridge and with the blocking, hopefully in place, could be a 60's style winter. Of course I am setting myself up for disappointment expecting that but one can hope....
Yeah even a 60s style winter doesn't necessarily guarantee anything but certainly is what we've always asked to see the past several years.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
928mb ensemble mean
This is definitely dampened vs reality too.
This is definitely dampened vs reality too.