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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

iGRXY said:
As we saw with the last event, These normally start sooner as well and with a stronger cold push there could be a sneaky storm for ICE here.
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But I can’t imagine it would amount to too much? Precipitation looks to be on the lighter side and scattered. I suppose things can change though.


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iGRXY said:
As we saw with the last event, These normally start sooner as well and with a stronger cold push there could be a sneaky storm for ICE here.
Click to expand...
Friday's event looking cooler too. CAD boundary now just south of I-85 on the Euro and I'm not sure it's done trending south.
 
The pivotal maps show rain in upstate SC Wednesday afternoon but it's as close as it can be for ice. 33 degree over a good bit of the upstate with very light precip. Less than .10 for now.
 
Complete different run of the gfs from 12z to 18z

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Welp, the elusive snow potential on Thursday seems to be fleeting with every new set of model runs.

It was fun while it lasted. I'll take my cold wind-driven rain and hate it.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Welp, the elusive snow potential on Thursday seems to be fleeting with every new set of model runs.

It was fun while it lasted. I'll take my cold wind-driven rain and hate it.
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I want yesterday back when people said this setup was different

No this reminds me of the same setup I drove to the Falls for in February lol

The good news is I'll be in Colorado in 2 weeks where there's actually snow
 
Miller A setups like what we may see a lot of in the coming month or two are much more tenuous imo than CAD or overrunning and are typically boom/bust type events with very limited predictability beyond day 4-6. Point is, going forward thru January & even February, don't get discouraged if you aren't seeing fantasy long-range snowstorms on ensemble guidance or operational NWP. These kinds of storms often sneak up on you at the very last minute (think Jan 2000, Dec 2010 for ex (although we've made some improvements since then)).
 
superjames1992 said:
I think that would be snow. BL being that warm makes no sense under heavy precip, to me. Maybe a 32-33F wet snow.

But it doesn’t matter. At this rate, this will be cutting and @Tarheel1 will be measuring using his yard stick again while have 55 degree rain showers.
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ATLwxfan said:
Warm rain with the prospects of better fortunes ahead. The usual.


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Lol. Wash, rinse, repeat. Spin cycle.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Miller A setups like what we may see a lot of in the coming month or two are much more tenuous imo than CAD or overrunning and are typically boom/bust type events with very limited predictability beyond day 4-6. Point is, going forward thru January & even February, don't get discouraged if you aren't seeing fantasy long-range snowstorms on ensemble guidance or operational NWP. These kinds of storms often sneak up on you at the very last minute (think Jan 2000, Dec 2010 for ex (although we've made some improvements since then)).
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I'm pretty sure if it's February with no long-range snowstorms you can bet on people being discouraged. Especially if its Mid to Late February.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I'm pretty sure if it's February with no long-range snowstorms you can bet on people being discouraged. Especially if its Mid to Late February.
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I don't disagree, but February should never be discounted as a month for snowstorm potential. With a La Niña though, this February will probably be warmer than normal. That does not mean we have no shot though.
 
Stormdoc said:
View attachment 60833
These GEFS maps are starting to make my mouth water. Crazy amount of blocking showing up in good spots
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That's beautiful blocking. It really is. It's just what we have been wanting but haven't seen in years. Unfortunately, the Pacific is just atrocious. Until that gets at least somewhat marginally in our favor, most of us not going to be cold enough for a bona fide winter storm. Hopefully, we'll get an alignment of oceanic teleconnections before too long.

@Justanotherweatherfan go ahead and hook me up with a thumbs down, if that works for you.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's beautiful blocking. It really is. It's just what we have been wanting but haven't seen in years. Unfortunately, the Pacific is just atrocious. Until that gets at least somewhat marginally in our favor, most of us not going to be cold enough for a bona fide winter storm. Hopefully, we'll get an alignment of oceanic teleconnections before too long.

@Justanotherweatherfan go ahead and hook me up with a thumbs down, if that works for you.
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Lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I'm pretty sure if it's February with no long-range snowstorms you can bet on people being discouraged. Especially if its Mid to Late February.
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3rd week of January is when I start worrying if no decent snow has fallen and the long range doesn’t look great. That said I know for up here not to give up till mid March.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Worth noting that even during the “crappy” portion of this pattern before the good stuff, some GEFS members pop some miller A snow setups with stuff undercutting the block
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I'm confused. Some folks saying it's gonna suck and others say it looking good with the west based NAO


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