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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SD said:
Agreed. Seems like some are forgetting we have 2 threads where you can complain all you want.
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He’ll learn like I did that at the end of the day, no one in here cares about how much your particular location gets screwed. I sat in here and watched everyone in here bring in the glory in Jan 2018 while I got screwed. Would be awesome if somehow we can reel in one for everyone in here.
 
SETNwx said:
From Don Sutherland, over on 33 and Rain:

"Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal wind at 1 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb slacken considerably.

There is a proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America."

I'm not exactly sure what the difference between displacement and split is in this context.
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A split keep the main low over the pole with a smaller low to the south. A displacement moves or elongates the entire low pressure southward while keeping the main low intact.
 
SD said:
Agreed. Seems like some are forgetting we have 2 threads where you can complain all you want.
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I know it’s hard to sometimes swallow but it’s good for the soul if people remember where you live, research historical annual snowfall for that area, and align expectations accordingly. It’s hard to do, but sometimes needed.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I know it’s hard to sometimes swallow but it’s good for the soul if people remember where you live, research historical annual snowfall for that area, and align expectations accordingly. It’s hard to do, but sometimes needed.
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True, while I didn't see any snow here, it was still all around me but everyone had frigid Temps. I'll rate this year's Christmas a 10, it could have been a lot worse.
 
This needs to change...
b1ccba52d8b6a014d8268dce456e4c9e.jpg

48a1fd48a12beec607778a6a7c3a45a4.jpg



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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I know it’s hard to sometimes swallow but it’s good for the soul if people remember where you live, research historical annual snowfall for that area, and align expectations accordingly. It’s hard to do, but sometimes needed.
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Agreed. It took me longer than it should have to accept this.
 
Interesting seeing the pattern that's being modeled now.

View attachment 60364
whatalife said:
This needs to change...
b1ccba52d8b6a014d8268dce456e4c9e.jpg

48a1fd48a12beec607778a6a7c3a45a4.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The pattern being modeled looks typical of what precedes a SSWE. What is interesting is we aren't seing a strong NPAC ridge yet but more of a nino preceeding pattern. I don't know if winter is waiting on Feb to get that going. Either way I am still hoping mid-January we see the pacific improve.

Screen Shot 2020-12-26 at 9.04.44 AM.png
compday.apWD9arP0m-1.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-9545600.png
 
KyloG said:
Interesting seeing the pattern that's being modeled now.

View attachment 60364


The pattern being modeled looks typical of what precedes a SSWE. What is interesting is we aren't seing a strong NPAC ridge yet but more of a nino preceeding pattern. I don't know if winter is waiting on Feb to get that going. Either way I am still hoping mid-January we see the pacific improve.

View attachment 60365
View attachment 60367View attachment 60366
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Yep. No need for anyone to give up hope yet. If most of us are honest with ourselves...We weren’t expecting to be where we are now!


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SETNwx said:
From Don Sutherland, over on 33 and Rain:

"Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal wind at 1 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb slacken considerably.

There is a proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America."

I'm not exactly sure what the difference between displacement and split is in this context.
Click to expand...
Split means part goes one way, part goes another...displacement means the PV stays intact for the most part and moves
 
The good news is we are not staring at a pattern of endless SE ridging and blowtorch for weeks that we are hoping will change by end of January. We do have a negative AO and some negative NAO that looks to be persisting, plus hopes that this SSWE will shake things up. On the other hand, no blockbuster or money pattern is showing up either, but we are still only a tweak or two away to delivering something here during peak climo. As usual, things are never as good or as bad as they seem.
 
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