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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

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If only it was cold enough. What a good storm track.


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CMC is just so much less amped when it enters the Pacific Northwest so it just never really gets going, that stuff to it’s north tugs it and messes the process up because they interact to long, meanwhile the GFS is far more amped and develops it because right off the bat when it enters the NW, there’s stream separation 7E41E8B5-E0B6-47DB-AF0A-AFB0C9B6FC0D.png2CBCCC99-4791-47E4-AF18-0FE24EA75612.png
 
Looking more at the general pattern, the 12Z GEFS continues the trend of the last few of stronger and further west N Atlantic blocking. Look just SE of Greenland, which is leading to a cooler E US (not cool per se) but not as warm as prior runs and this has been the case for at least the last 3 runs:

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So, let me get this straight... we were talking about the possibility of severe weather on NYE, but now it looks like the wedge may put in wrench in that. And now we have a perfect track for a classic Carolina snowstorm and no wedge or cold air? Bruhhhhh. We just can’t win can we?


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Avalanche said:
If that blocking would move west, would it slosh (JB) that colder air south? Weak HP and too far north currently.
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It would help force the jet south and allow for a more favorable storm track and a tendency to keep our area cooler. Unfortunately, it will be blocking in Pacific maritime air, given the strong Pac jet and since we're not yet loading Canada with really cold air.

It's effectively an important piece of an incomplete puzzle.
 
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SD said:
This has always bothered me but why are the strat and troposphere so out of phase? Is it just the obvious that they are far different heights and I should wrap my head around the east answer or is there something deeper? View attachment 60553View attachment 60554
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Sudden stratospheric warmings begin near the stratopause (above 1mb), where planetary waves deposit their easterly momentum onto the polar westerly night jet and cause it to descend into the mid-upper stratosphere in a matter of a couple days. The lower stratosphere and troposphere often aren’t coupled (yet) and it’s normal to see them out of phase. Unlike an unperturbed state where the vortex is vertically stacked (equivalent barotropic), the initial phase of SSWE are usually highly baroclinic, which means tilting and out-of-phase circulation anomalies between the mid-upper stratosphere and lower troposphere.
 
Rain Cold said:
It would help force the jet south and allow for a more favorable storm track and a tendency to keep our area cooler. Unfortunately, it will be blocking in Pacific maritime air, givrn the strong Pac jet and since we're not yet loading Canada with really cold air.

It's effectively an important piece of an incomplete puzzle.
Click to expand...
Yeah the pacific still won’t be great but guess we can’t have it all
 
We have a great pattern coming up, and from what I’ve heard it doesn’t seem to be ending in the short term. Let’s see if we can score...
 
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