ajr
Member
A deepening 50/50 low as well:
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
If we can keep this System the same latitude, or even further south, and also keep strengthening that stuff around SE Canada, the storm will begin to pull in those colder 850s from it, getting close to that already 
You get that block a little stronger, things will trend south some and slow down enough to perhaps let that N/S wave get involved, if it's real.
Still largely suppression on the GEFS but a few closer members and 1 that goes boom
Clem282340
Member
Is this a Miller A kind of setup here
Yes.
The ones that do develop precip show a good bit of snow. That's good.
Clem282340
Member
Miller A is not good for the upstate right
Sometimes can be, but often times can be screwjobs there
One thing to remember is that the GFS has had a warm bias at the surface in this range lately. So if we can trim off about 3-4 degrees then most of NC could be in business.
Miller As are just fine or total crap. It all depends on the track of the storm and the strength and placement of the cold air.
The important thing to note about Miller As is that they have a very narrow transition zone between rain and snow. Where the boundary sets up is determined by the track of the system. I wouldn’t throw out a general statement that Miller As favor one area over another in order to make any sort of a prediction. It really comes down to the synoptic evolution of any given storm.
They can work for the eastern part of the upstate fairly well, but back towards Greenville/Spartanburg you’ll want to see the wave move along like a southern slider so that you can have an overrunning set up before the coastal really gets cranking
Honestly I’m more Worried about handing this storm off to the northeast/upper MA
The transition from rain to snow can be very narrow with one location seeing mostly rain while 10 miles to the northwest is getting slammed with heavy snow. Also the cut off of precip on the west side can be painfully sharp as well. During the Crusher I was in an area that got 10-12 inches while 8 miles to the southeast had 18-20 and 6 miles to the northwest only had 3-4.
IF we keep seeing the block get stronger, I'd grow more confident in more of the SE seeing wintery as opposed to getting whiffed to the NE. But it is 2020, so.... haha
SnowNiner
Member
That's the location where you want your block to be. That plus a +PNA is money.
Still could be some onset ice on Wednesday per the NAM, wouldn’t sleep on this given more than modeled low level WAA > earlier precip onset, and dewpoints will be in the upper teens/low 20s vs our past event which had dews in the mid to upper 20s for most
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Definitely agree. Actually had some light freezing rain this morning here. 3k NAM is showing the Wednesday potential as well.
Wow the GEFS really said F U to that trough mess out west ... hello +PNA?
ajr
Member
ajr
Member
Regardless of what happens, that pacific jet streak means it should be active
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, this is much better IMO. The -NAO block is close to an ideal location, Baffin bay more toward Hudson bay. The ridging is pushing into Alaska and the pacific low has retrograded west to the Aleutians. Canada's not very cold here still, but this set up would put us back in the game I think second half of January. Hope this is real. I hate depending on 384 for a pattern change!
Pac Jet extends on the GEFS
then it retracts
the extension leads to a GOA low
the retraction allows for ridging to start developing along the west coast into AK
Also notice Urals ridge in play early
This likely aids in the jet extension and EAMT. As the ural ridge dampens that should help retract the jet and build a western ridge
then it retracts
the extension leads to a GOA low
the retraction allows for ridging to start developing along the west coast into AK
Also notice Urals ridge in play early
This likely aids in the jet extension and EAMT. As the ural ridge dampens that should help retract the jet and build a western ridge
Without looking at the eps I bet it stinks in the day 10-16.
Idk I mean the theme since like september has been a ural ridge. Without changing much forcing it seems like we would cycle back through something similar to what we have seen recently. This time though climo would favor a better chance at snow before we went back to poop. The gefs are starting to show some life to the mjo that could be a wildcard here.
Also to add to my post above the pac jet retracting allows for the heights in the north atlantic to retrograde into a more classic and impactful for us orientation
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like more rain and storms for New Year's Day, and another severe threat. Just great. So over the rain and storms now. Its winter. We want snow! Maybe this will bring about a pattern change more favorable for snow.
This is from WRAL
LOOKING AHEAD: Keep checking in with us! Severe storms will be possible Friday ahead of our next front. As of now, the main threats will be tornado and wind damage.
This is from WRAL
LOOKING AHEAD: Keep checking in with us! Severe storms will be possible Friday ahead of our next front. As of now, the main threats will be tornado and wind damage.
The gefs extended goes with a classic nina transformation to a NPAC ridge, -PNA and southeast ridge, I still think this gets pushed back especially given the SSWE and displacement, but I think we’ll eventually find this pattern again given in almost every nina I know, we eventually get this
PNA looks like it will stay positive, NAO will go strongly negative, and the AO will stay strongly negative. I guess on paper, or modeled output, this is the look we want. But as others have stated, other pattern details (W/E NAO, EPO) can turn the tables.
CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
tonysc
Member
From the GSP NWS
Expect a full fropa over the cwa by
early Saturday when PoPs get shutoff as a post-frontal environment
prevails before a secondary shortwave trough approaches the region
early Sunday. Questions of what would occur underneath will not
be answered anytime soon, but models have hinted at a coastal low
forming along the frontal boundary that would be offshore at this
point. If the coastal low and shortwave can somewhat phase with
enough moisture and cold air, then there would really be something
to talk about. First, let us get through the New Years Eve and New
Years Day event before getting our hopes up. Temperatures will be
way above normal Thursday and Friday ahead of the the cold front,
while remaining slightly above normal Saturday and near normal
Sunday with mostly dry conditions in the grids for the time being
during the upcoming weekend.
Expect a full fropa over the cwa by
early Saturday when PoPs get shutoff as a post-frontal environment
prevails before a secondary shortwave trough approaches the region
early Sunday. Questions of what would occur underneath will not
be answered anytime soon, but models have hinted at a coastal low
forming along the frontal boundary that would be offshore at this
point. If the coastal low and shortwave can somewhat phase with
enough moisture and cold air, then there would really be something
to talk about. First, let us get through the New Years Eve and New
Years Day event before getting our hopes up. Temperatures will be
way above normal Thursday and Friday ahead of the the cold front,
while remaining slightly above normal Saturday and near normal
Sunday with mostly dry conditions in the grids for the time being
during the upcoming weekend.
tennessee storm
Member
Mjo hanging around in the warmer phase not helping
Hour 624 .... ?
We’re eventually gonna switch to a canonical nina pattern
Cmon northern stream cooperate !!! 
That S/W looks stout. Will we have the cold air?
Oh yeah...cold air. You know how that goes around here
. 850's are close and 2m's are warm though.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Mo cold air whatsoever
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
On to the next one. 42 degrees at 7am isn't going to cut it
