Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[BHS1975]

Yep.

View attachment 60771

Rate driven?


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[NickyBGuarantee]

This is torture.
View attachment 60775

So this is either the all time COLDEST rain or the all time heaviest fattest flaked snow .... over under?

 

[ajr]

So this is either the all time COLDEST rain or the all time heaviest fattest flaked snow .... over under?

32.03°F rain.

 

[Downeastnc]

I mean its not horrible, if the low is further SE or the high a bit stronger....this is workable.....

 

[SD]

Sudden stratospheric warmings begin near the stratopause (above 1mb), where planetary waves deposit their easterly momentum onto the polar westerly night jet and cause it to descend into the mid-upper stratosphere in a matter of a couple days. The lower stratosphere and troposphere often aren’t coupled (yet) and it’s normal to see them out of phase. Unlike an unperturbed state where the vortex is vertically stacked (equivalent barotropic), the initial phase of SSWE are usually highly baroclinic, which means tilting and out-of-phase circulation anomalies between the mid-upper stratosphere and lower troposphere.

That's what I was looking for thanks for the answer.

 

[Stephenb888]

Any chance this storm can be anything but rain for upstate Sc? Or should I move on to the next.

 

[Brent]

That is a lot of cold rain to end this dreadful year

 

[superjames1992]

Yep.

View attachment 60771

I think that would be snow. BL being that warm makes no sense under heavy precip, to me. Maybe a 32-33F wet snow.

But it doesn’t matter. At this rate, this will be cutting and @Tarheel1 will be measuring using his yard stick again while have 55 degree rain showers.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Any chance this storm can be anything but rain for upstate Sc? Or should I move on to the next.

Rain.

 

[tractor girl]

Rain.

So you're saying there's a chance

 

[Myfrotho704_]

damn mack might cash in

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Honestly I’m more Worried about handing this storm off to the northeast/upper MA

 

[SD]

View attachment 60798View attachment 60800

This is a mess

 

[NorthDFWwx]

That is a lot of cold rain to end this dreadful year View attachment 60796

Good news is that should mostly wipe out the local drought.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

This is a mess

View attachment 60806

^^^The biggest understatement of the year.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Incredible lol

 

[Webberweather53]

If the 12z Euro verifies, this storm just off the Kamchatka Peninsula would enter the conversation for strongest extratropical cyclone ever observed in the N Pacific.

Wow

With stationary wave fluxes like that, it's no wonder a SSWE is coming in early January.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Incredible lol View attachment 60808View attachment 60810

Goodness. That better be monitored closely. 26 degrees colder in one run for KPTI.

 

[SD]

Incredible lol View attachment 60808View attachment 60810

The wedge always wins when you want warmth and loses when you need the cold. Just the facts of life

 

[cd2play]

As far as any trends on the LR, I'm not going to be convinced one bit until I start seeing it show up in the 7 day forecasts.

 

[Webberweather53]

The 12z ECMWF run looked amazing in the stratosphere. Given the tropospheric west-based -NAO, I don't think we'll have to wait very long at all for coupling to occur here.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I hate the mountains

 

[Ghost]

As far as any trends on the LR, I'm not going to be convinced one bit until I start seeing it show up in the 7 day forecasts.

I won’t be convinced until i start seeing it outside my door in real time ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Webberweather53]

In a large-scale sense during the winter, there's a very fine line between a severe weather outbreak and a major ice storm in the Carolinas. We might be finding that out the hard way (yet again) for New Years. The only difference is during ice storms, the wavelengths are shorter and we have s/w present near Atlantic Canada.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

In a large-scale sense during the winter, there's a very fine line between a severe weather outbreak and a major ice storm in the Carolinas. We might be finding that out the hard way (yet again) for New Years. The only difference is during ice storms, the wavelengths are shorter and we have s/w present near Atlantic Canada.

Yeah it’s a good thing we don’t have a strong SE Canada vortex, otherwise that’s lights out

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah it’s a good thing we don’t have a strong SE Canada vortex, otherwise that’s lights outView attachment 60817

Looks like we might get our CAD event around New Years after all, I know it's something I've discussed for at least the last week or so because we had some pieces there at a large-scale.

 

[CaryWx]

Looks like we might get our CAD event around New Years after all, I know it's something I've discussed for at least the last week or so because we had some pieces there at a large-scale.

This is definitely a change from what's currently being progged attm. Calling for balmy temps on NYD right now. Like 70 at RDU

 

[Cadi40]

Eric, does this favorable pattern look to stick around for long? Hoping we score soon. We’re over due for a significant storm and I feel like this is the year.

 

[Webberweather53]

Based on the 12z ECMWF/EPS, it looks like the stratospheric circulation anomalies are gonna try to directly couple w/ the west-based -NAO as soon as the 2nd week of January. If this occurs, an extremely intense & prolonged period of -NAO could be lurking on the horizon, potentially rivaling 2010-11 & 2009-10 imo.

 

[Webberweather53]

Based on the 12z ECMWF/EPS, it looks like the stratospheric circulation anomalies are gonna try to directly couple w/ the west-based -NAO as soon as the 2nd week of January. If this occurs, an extremely intense & prolonged period of -NAO could be lurking on the horizon, potentially rivaling 2010-11 & 2009-10 imo.

The truly elite -NAOs of the modern-era usually have west-based -NAOs that later go onto directly couple w/ the stratosphere from sudden warming events. 2012-13 & 2009-10 are fantastic recent examples.

 

[Webberweather53]

The truly elite -NAOs of the modern-era usually have west-based -NAOs that later go onto directly couple w/ the stratosphere from sudden warming events. 2012-13 & 2009-10 are fantastic recent examples.

Furthermore, NAO predictability increases dramatically when one coincides with a major sudden stratospheric warming event as will likely be the case this time around.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yay

 

[Brent]

I've been NAM'ed ? it's pretty much entirely rain

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

YayView attachment 60822View attachment 60823View attachment 60824

Ice ice baby

 

[Clem282340]

YayView attachment 60822View attachment 60823View attachment 60824

Looks like there might be some ice in the upstate

 

[iGRXY]

As we saw with the last event, These normally start sooner as well and with a stronger cold push there could be a sneaky storm for ICE here.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The Euro weeklies ran:
Good News: The -NAO sticks around through the end of the run (Mid-February). The SER never comes back either.
Bad News: The NW trough never really goes away, and the snow mean is just meh.

 

[GaStorm]

The Euro weeklies ran:
Good News: The -NAO sticks around through the end of the run (Mid-February). The SER never comes back either.
Bad News: The NW trough never really goes away, and the snow mean is just meh.

I'm not sure snow maps further than a week out can be trusted anyway. Also, do the weeklies take into account a strong west based -NAO?

 

[Ollie Williams]

I'm not sure snow maps further than a week out can be trusted anyway. Also, do the weeklies take into account a strong west based -NAO?

I'm sure it does, but a strong NW/AK trough cancels it out.