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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

For what it’s worth, the NAM showing a more stout wedge on NYD. If we can stay in the 50’s that’s a win. The trend is your friend.


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ajr said:
From reading the abstract, could this be a situation where longer-term forecasts won't be as accurate for certain models (GFS, CFS) if they aren't capturing the stratosphere well? So are we going to be in a "holding pattern" longer-term until the stratosphere is clarified?
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Yes exactly. We may be in a holding pattern until the SSWE is already ongoing but we probably don't have to wait very long for that to occur.
 
Still requires patience, but you can see the GEFS forecast trend more to arctic high/Alaskan ridging regimes toward the end of January which both favor our area:

1609253747779.png
1609253761307.png
 
Here’s a different and very detailed perspective from some pro mets:


“Warm Pattern Despite Weakened Polar Vortex

A stratospheric warming event is projected in the days ahead, and this has led to questions on whether the pattern could turn colder as a result. The argument is related to an associated weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), which maintains the already established and historically cold correlating –AO. Despite this, GWHDDs over the next 15 days are forecast to rank in the top-10 warmest for the period dating back to 1950, and the models persist the warmer than normal pattern into the 16-20 Day period. ‘Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere’ (Green & Furtado, 2019) is the title of the paper that helps describe the pattern. The paper relates the influence of tropical circulations with that in the stratosphere. The study found that various MJO phases, dependent on the strength of the SPV, yield unique jet stream and temperature patterns that differ from single-mode composites (i.e. simply a composite of the MJO in a select phase). The report states: ‘MJO Phases 2 and 3 events influence the resulting tropospheric circulation via primarily a tropospheric pathway. By contrast, MJO phases 7 and 8 events modify both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation with potential feedbacks on the tropospheric circulation at longer lags.’ For reference, the troposphere is the level of the atmosphere in which weather happens, while the stratosphere is located higher in the atmosphere. Heat and momentum can be transferred between these levels, ultimately affecting the pattern. As for the forecast, the MJO is an incoherent signal with a pair of low frequency ‘standing waves’ over the Indian Ocean/Indonesia and the Atlantic. Green & Furtado (2019) would suggest a colder pattern in the Eastern Two-Thirds (e.g. composite (a)). However, a deeper dive into the data shows the pattern is behaving as if the MJO is in phases 2-3, which is to some degree influenced by La Niña (i.e. easterly trades projected by the CFS model over the tropical Pacific). This setup is most represented by the patterns spatially described within the (d) composites. Differentially, the ongoing setup starts out with a stronger Pacific jet stream, aiding in the warmer air flow of the forecast. -BH/AM”

This from Maxar this morning
 
GaWx said:
Here’s a different and very detailed perspective from some pro mets:


“Warm Pattern Despite Weakened Polar Vortex

A stratospheric warming event is projected in the days ahead, and this has led to questions on whether the pattern could turn colder as a result. The argument is related to an associated weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), which maintains the already established and historically cold correlating –AO. Despite this, GWHDDs over the next 15 days are forecast to rank in the top-10 warmest for the period dating back to 1950, and the models persist the warmer than normal pattern into the 16-20 Day period. ‘Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere’ (Green & Furtado, 2019) is the title of the paper that helps describe the pattern. The paper relates the influence of tropical circulations with that in the stratosphere. The study found that various MJO phases, dependent on the strength of the SPV, yield unique jet stream and temperature patterns that differ from single-mode composites (i.e. simply a composite of the MJO in a select phase). The report states: ‘MJO Phases 2 and 3 events influence the resulting tropospheric circulation via primarily a tropospheric pathway. By contrast, MJO phases 7 and 8 events modify both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation with potential feedbacks on the tropospheric circulation at longer lags.’ For reference, the troposphere is the level of the atmosphere in which weather happens, while the stratosphere is located higher in the atmosphere. Heat and momentum can be transferred between these levels, ultimately affecting the pattern. As for the forecast, the MJO is an incoherent signal with a pair of low frequency ‘standing waves’ over the Indian Ocean/Indonesia and the Atlantic. Green & Furtado (2019) would suggest a colder pattern in the Eastern Two-Thirds (e.g. composite (a)). However, a deeper dive into the data shows the pattern is behaving as if the MJO is in phases 2-3, which is to some degree influenced by La Niña (i.e. easterly trades projected by the CFS model over the tropical Pacific). This setup is most represented by the patterns spatially described within the (d) composites. Differentially, the ongoing setup starts out with a stronger Pacific jet stream, aiding in the warmer air flow of the forecast. -BH/AM”

This from Maxar this morning
Click to expand...
My take after reading that mumbo jumbo - We're screwed
 
GaWx said:
Here’s a different and very detailed perspective from some pro mets:


“Warm Pattern Despite Weakened Polar Vortex

A stratospheric warming event is projected in the days ahead, and this has led to questions on whether the pattern could turn colder as a result. The argument is related to an associated weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), which maintains the already established and historically cold correlating –AO. Despite this, GWHDDs over the next 15 days are forecast to rank in the top-10 warmest for the period dating back to 1950, and the models persist the warmer than normal pattern into the 16-20 Day period. ‘Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere’ (Green & Furtado, 2019) is the title of the paper that helps describe the pattern. The paper relates the influence of tropical circulations with that in the stratosphere. The study found that various MJO phases, dependent on the strength of the SPV, yield unique jet stream and temperature patterns that differ from single-mode composites (i.e. simply a composite of the MJO in a select phase). The report states: ‘MJO Phases 2 and 3 events influence the resulting tropospheric circulation via primarily a tropospheric pathway. By contrast, MJO phases 7 and 8 events modify both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation with potential feedbacks on the tropospheric circulation at longer lags.’ For reference, the troposphere is the level of the atmosphere in which weather happens, while the stratosphere is located higher in the atmosphere. Heat and momentum can be transferred between these levels, ultimately affecting the pattern. As for the forecast, the MJO is an incoherent signal with a pair of low frequency ‘standing waves’ over the Indian Ocean/Indonesia and the Atlantic. Green & Furtado (2019) would suggest a colder pattern in the Eastern Two-Thirds (e.g. composite (a)). However, a deeper dive into the data shows the pattern is behaving as if the MJO is in phases 2-3, which is to some degree influenced by La Niña (i.e. easterly trades projected by the CFS model over the tropical Pacific). This setup is most represented by the patterns spatially described within the (d) composites. Differentially, the ongoing setup starts out with a stronger Pacific jet stream, aiding in the warmer air flow of the forecast. -BH/AM”

This from Maxar this morning
Click to expand...
What did Maxar say about the missed above normal call for December? Does the Pacific forecast do well long range?
 
NoSnowATL said:
Maxar hates cold.
Click to expand...

BS. Yours is a nonsense post. Maxar hates nonobjectivity and being a weenie in forecasting like JB.
They always provide detailed backup to their forecasts. Would you care to challenge them on what they said here?

I wouldn’t pay for their expertise if I thought they weren’t worth it.

It has been mostly warm in recent winters in most of the E US. So, much of the time they’ve gone with warmth and have been right. Would you prefer a JB seemingly always cold forecast to make you feel better? Besides, you want it warm anyway so you could play golf comfortably as you said.

Regardless, this only covers the next 20 days. It is beyond that that hopefully the SE turns cold again as I think even Webb said.
 
Let's please try to lay off the trolling and personal insults in the pattern thread. One of these days we might actually get cold and have a shot at snow. We need to be in game shape for that opportunity!
 
i honestly think eventually even with the active pacific jet, we’ll undercut the block, may not happen like this or at this time but it’s not that uncommon with blocks DA4DC6D3-DB8D-44D2-9EE9-FFE72BC8FC13.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's gonna be hard to torch or go well above normal when the center of the ridge axis is over north-central Canada. Looks like largely a continuation of this past month temperature wise, with maybe a bigger -PNA lean at times as individual waves move into the west coast.

View attachment 60889
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I'll take it. Anything that keeps the leaves from budding in winter like the last few years works for me. Frosts in the morning and 40s and 50s in the afternoon is a good winter in my books with a few colder days in there.
 
Even with the pattern before the SSWE effects start, sure does look active with a pacific jet, this look at H5 argues for maybe some cold air damming events and severe weather 5A791B15-F223-444A-B0FC-8395E6E3A8DA.png3121EBA9-23DE-475F-8A75-8C49437A323C.png
 
Not a bad looking pattern as we approach mid January on the 12Z GEFS but this is still pretty far out and the GEFS has been unreliable even during earlier periods. I’m still hoping for a chilly last half of January:



0ED608AB-245C-4781-B659-1066F38DD0C7.png
 
The most interesting part of the GFS you can see as the block starts to retrograde each system loses latitude and ends up with an interesting system by D16. Just based off of the 12z GFS you would have to circle 1/15-20 as a potential time period to have something hit for parts of the region. NAO block gets back toward Davis Strait so we can get a decent storm going off of the SE Canada coast in the 50/50 region and hopefully suppress the pattern enough for a miller B or maybe slip a southern slider type event through
 
SD said:
The most interesting part of the GFS you can see as the block starts to retrograde each system loses latitude and ends up with an interesting system by D16. Just based off of the 12z GFS you would have to circle 1/15-20 as a potential time period to have something hit for parts of the region. NAO block gets back toward Davis Strait so we can get a decent storm going off of the SE Canada coast in the 50/50 region and hopefully suppress the pattern enough for a miller B or maybe slip a southern slider type event through
Click to expand...
Basically the same process happens on the GEFS, note this was a hour 384 pattern a day or so ago 0BA511D2-0F6B-4104-8C28-CBD0F5863939.png
 
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