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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Maybe eastern upstate ice north Greenville Spartanburg Cherokee counties is who will see ice. Pickens oconee counties 33-34 degree rain


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packfan98 said:
What's your thoughts on this storm?
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Synoptically, this looks like a hybrid to in-situ CAD where diabatic processes will tend to be as large as synoptic-scale forcing for this CAD, the snow cover from tonight's storm will help in reinforcing this CAD locally and getting the air mass cold enough esp in climo favored zones for snow/ice. Could see a quick burst of snow here near the onset of this event esp closer to VA, w/ a changeover to ZR/IP. This has the makings of a potentially significant ice storm for climo favored areas of the NW and western piedmont.
 
Yeah, I'm not liking the look of this one, in regards to ice in the Triad. The air mass before the arrival is going to be cold/dry and will reinforce the CAD which is notoriously under predicted for strength and persistence by the models. If the precip goes as modeled, then there will be a lot of power outages in and around the Triad which is no bueno!

Webberweather53 said:
Synoptically, this looks like a hybrid to in-situ CAD where diabatic processes will tend to be as large as synoptic-scale forcing for this CAD, the snow cover from tonight's storm will help in reinforcing this CAD locally and getting the air mass cold enough esp in climo favored zones for snow/ice. Could see a quick burst of snow here near the onset of this event esp closer to VA, w/ a changeover to ZR/IP. This has the makings of a potentially significant ice storm for climo favored areas of the NW and western piedmont.
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Stephenb888 said:
Is this looking like a possible ice storm for upstate Sc? (Anderson)
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Right now I’d say no. Anderson oconee Pickens would likely be cold rain. Greenville Spartanburg Cherokee counties a little bit of ice maybe


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It was nearly 70 for two days, and yesterday morning I was awakened by stuff slamming against the house, then realized it was pouring, with thunder and lightening. When I got up and about there were some small limbs and twigs down, but no biggie. It wasn't until I went to throw some orange peels into the compost pile that I noticed a lot of bigger limbs down about 100 feet outside my bedroom window. I got closer and realized I had a tree down on the chain link fence. Closer still had me wonder where the tree came from. I finally realized it was just the top 60 feet of a huge pine, and then I saw the trunk. Another 60 feet of topless pine over hundred feet away from the top. I must have had a mini spinner drop down and take that tree off 60 feet up and throw the top 100 feet away into my fence. It's a forest there, and straight line winds wouldn't have been selective. You don't see that kind of power everyday. 68 in Jan just ain't natural, lol.
 
I feel like upstate sc is running out of time quickly for any snow this year.
Jessy89 said:
Right now I’d say no. Anderson oconee Pickens would likely be cold rain. Greenville Spartanburg Cherokee counties a little bit of ice maybe


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Stephenb888 said:
I feel like upstate sc is running out of time quickly for any snow this year.
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We might have a opportunity sometime in February. But it likely be our last chance. I went up to the mountains twice for snow. I never won’t a snowless winter and won’t have one living so close to the mountains


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Looks like it’s in a environment with 250-500 joules of SBcape and 30-40kts of 1km shear, basically a HSLC environment
 
gawxnative said:
From Media reports Damage at TLH, both the airport and to NWS office.
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Dang, that sucks!!! I just moved from there a year and a half ago, though I was on the north side of town away from the tornado. Lots of mossy oaks that can fall pretty easily around there, though Hermine and Michael took care of a lot of the weaker ones.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I wonder about this front end band, whether it’s driven off frontogenesis or not, I wonder if the meso
Models come in stout with it View attachment 68504
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I'm leaning yes, those are notorious for 2 things 1) starting sooner then forecast and 2) more juiced up
 
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