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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
The gefs is quite active fwiw View attachment 64709View attachment 64710View attachment 64712View attachment 64711View attachment 64708
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Clearly, the pattern we're going to is a colder & better one than what we have now which even as crappy as it looks has produced back-to-back winter storms along and south of the 40 corridor. A couple degrees colder than what we have now would have resulted in a major winter storm in the Carolinas on the 8th, and what we're headed towards ~ Jan 20th is more than capable of making things at least a few degrees colder overall than what we're currently seeing.


Now


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-0690400.png


~Jan 20th
1610291499911.png
 
tennessee storm said:
yeah, and most time we dont benefit from it either, congrats europe again as always it seems
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Europe is literally the least favored place for the PV . Not enough land mass and lots of oceanic influence . Asia and North America thats who will almost always get the Polar Vortex.
 
Indices don't looks good for the extended.
PNA - looks to go negative --> this is the killer
NAO - Looks to stay (by average) slight negative --> not bad
AO - Looks to go neutral (by average) --> not sure

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

In my opinion, the PNA has been the most crucial element in providing winter storms (at least for my zone). I read in the past, and I think Webber has discussed, the EPO could save the day. I remember a few years back where that seemed to have happened.
 
I do agree, we have lost a bit of the PAC (with the building heights and building SFC pressures) so we lost a bit of the models showing a big high coming down yes. However, agree with Webb.... this pattern is still better than what we have had so far and it’s snowing into deep TX and going to make it into central LA!! Better timing and that could have been the I-20 corridor. Either way I think we are all just lucky we are not “torching” right now. The -NAO has helped us tremendously.
 
FallsLake said:
Indices don't looks good for the extended.
PNA - looks to go negative --> this is the killer
NAO - Looks to stay (by average) slight negative --> not bad
AO - Looks to go neutral (by average) --> not sure

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

In my opinion, the PNA has been the most crucial element in providing winter storms (at least for my zone). I read in the past, and I think Webber has discussed, the EPO could save the day. I remember a few years back where that seemed to have happened.
Click to expand...
-PNA here could aid in a overrunning setup
 
Webberweather53 said:
Clearly, the pattern we're going to is a colder & better one than what we have now which even as crappy as it looks has produced back-to-back winter storms along and south of the 40 corridor. A couple degrees colder than what we have now would have resulted in a major winter storm in the Carolinas on the 8th, and what we're headed towards ~ Jan 20th is more than capable of making things at least a few degrees colder overall than what we're currently seeing.


Now


View attachment 64714


~Jan 20th
View attachment 64713
Click to expand...

So do we believe the GFS/GEFS is handling the upcoming pattern better then the other models. I saw JB only sawing GEFS last night. If so...why? Trying to understand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Clearly, the pattern we're going to is a colder & better one than what we have now which even as crappy as it looks has produced back-to-back winter storms along and south of the 40 corridor. A couple degrees colder than what we have now would have resulted in a major winter storm in the Carolinas on the 8th, and what we're headed towards ~ Jan 20th is more than capable of making things at least a few degrees colder overall than what we're currently seeing.


Now


View attachment 64714


~Jan 20th
View attachment 64713
Click to expand...
I will take my chances with just a few degrees colder than now. When I hear extreme cold I think suppression which is what historically happens.
 
FallsLake said:
Indices don't looks good for the extended.
PNA - looks to go negative --> this is the killer
NAO - Looks to stay (by average) slight negative --> not bad
AO - Looks to go neutral (by average) --> not sure

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

In my opinion, the PNA has been the most crucial element in providing winter storms (at least for my zone). I read in the past, and I think Webber has discussed, the EPO could save the day. I remember a few years back where that seemed to have happened.
Click to expand...

Neutral to slightly negative PNA is good if you want overrunning or cad events, you need s/ws to dig into the Southern Rockis/Plains to turn the flow out of the WSW to get any moisture or warm advection going to trigger precip in the SE US. A strong +PNA and you have deep-layer dry NW flow and you're usually cold/dry save for coastal cyclones w/ mostly a threat for Miller As (also not bad either if you're in RDU). -PNA/-NAO is a great pattern for Miller Bs/CAD & is pretty much a roller coaster ride when it comes to temps precip. Basically anything aside from a hurricane is fair game in -PNA/-NAOs (severe, cold rain, big winter storms/ice, etc.)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well that's not really true though, if it's snowing in south-central Texas in the current pattern w/ snow climo that's even worse than Columbia-Atlanta, and the one we're going to is better I'd say it's a great pattern. There's some synoptic luck involved but you have to be good if not great to be lucky.
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Does it matter if you don't see any snow?
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s the 10th but we say this every year. I’m going with the odds. I probably won’t see snow beside another flurry storm and that ok.
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Guess I need to check my calendar. Either way, I can count on one hand the number of years I didn’t have my ground covered with snow with at least close to an inch. It could happen this year but odds are we see something.
 
whatalife said:
So do we believe the GFS/GEFS is handling the upcoming pattern better then the other models. I saw JB only sawing GEFS last night. If so...why? Trying to understand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It doesn't matter if you pick the GEFS or EPS, both suites look at least a few degrees colder than we are now overall and we're already clearly marginally favorable enough to get snow, so I'd say it's more than sufficient at least up here in NC. Down in your neck of the woods maybe you have something to complain about losing the big block north of Alaska.


Brick Tamland said:
Does it matter if you don't see any snow?
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I saw snow here at my house on the 8th in a worse pattern so I'd say that's pretty irrelevant.
 
Rain Cold said:
There is just no cold air transport into the southeastern US. All of the solutions that were showing serious and sustained cold air intrusions a few days ago are gone. Even if the storm trends more favorably, unless something changes up north to bring cold air back into the picture, then it's a cold rain for most, with maybe a little 34 degree front and back end slop.

There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
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That's why I say things don't work out like they used to. We see patterns that used to pretty much guarantee us snow here but for some reason now they don't produce nearly as often as those same great patterns did before. It doesn't matter how good the pattern supposedly is if it doesn't produce a good snow storm for most folks that used to get one out of the same pattern in the past.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It doesn't matter if you pick the GEFS or EPS, both suites look at least a few degrees colder than we are now overall and we're already clearly marginally favorable enough to get snow, so I'd say it's more than sufficient at least up here in NC. Down in your neck of the woods maybe you have something to complain about losing the big block north of Alaska.




I saw snow here at my house on the 8th in a worse pattern so I'd say that's pretty irrelevant.
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It is relevant if a pattern that is supposedly great for producing snow for most folks doesn't produce. Either the pattern really isn't that great and we can't get those patterns anymore, or for some reason the same pattern that used to give us snow in the past just doesn't produce the same now. Either way it sucks for those that don't get anything out of it, and makes it feel more like a crapshoot than anything now.
 
Arcc said:
If any are complaining about this, they just need to quit winter and start liking something else.
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People are just pissed the storm on the 8th didn't produce legit accumulating snow as many (aside from myself) were hoping for in the Carolinas. There's just a bunch of overreacting this morning in here to a pattern that clearly still looks good for a majority of the board, just not near-perfect like we saw several days ago.
 
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