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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

One thing to note is the globals handling of wedges. Even today for example. The 12z euro had me getting up to 73. Now obviously with this system we wouldn’t bust low by 15-20 degrees like we saw with a lot of people today but you can generally shave 3-7 degrees off those temps at the surface with globals right now. Biggest thing to take from them is looks like we have Miller b setup with strong HP building in from the north and a good bit of moisture pulling in from the south. Then we wait until Friday to get into the NAMs range for temp profiles.
 
iGRXY said:
You can take another 3-6 degrees off those temps as well. That’s a lights out for days ice storm in north and South Carolina
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I think 1-3 is generally more accurate given it’s closer in range now, still tho it’s ugly
 
iGRXY said:
You can take another 3-6 degrees off those temps as well. That’s a lights out for days ice storm in north and South Carolina
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I have to ask but the warm bias gets thrown around a lot for the ICON to the point that I now wonder if it really is as serious as y’all say it is . Not denying it has one I really haven’t paid it much attention , just feel it’s become an automatic assumption to disparage it or push the desired outcome .
 
Lickwx said:
I have to ask but the warm bias gets thrown around a lot for the ICON to the point that I now wonder if it really is as serious as y’all say it is . Not denying it has one I really haven’t paid it much attention , just feel it’s become an automatic assumption to disparage it or push the desired outcome .
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Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. I've seen a whole lot of people assume the ICON is too warm. The only time I use the warm bias rule is when it is a warm outlier. The ICON this run isn't an outlier, therefore I'm not changing what it has.
 
Lickwx said:
I have to ask but the warm bias gets thrown around a lot for the ICON to the point that I now wonder if it really is as serious as y’all say it is . Not denying it has one I really haven’t paid it much attention , just feel it’s become an automatic assumption to disparage it or push the desired outcome .
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Beyond 84 hours the warm bid at the surface is pretty bad. Similar to the cold bias of the Canadian. It’s generally 2-5 degrees too warm in that range.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. I've seen a whole lot of people assume the ICON is too warm. The only time I use the warm bias rule is when it is a warm outlier. The ICON this run isn't an outlier, therefore I'm not changing what it has.
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Yeah in its past most of the time I’ve seen it be warm by 1-3 and that’s 50% of the time, I think temps here verbatim are close to being right, maybe shave off 1-3 at most
 
iGRXY said:
Beyond 84 hours the warm bid at the surface is pretty bad. Similar to the cold bias of the Canadian. It’s generally 2-5 degrees too warm in that range.
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Yeah, but not all the time it's an outlier, just like sometimes the CMC isn't an outlier. Since it is very much in line with the Euro, I don't see any reason to automatically assume this model is wrong.
 
Icon will probably trend colder especially if the Euro does to


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Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, but not all the time it's an outlier, just like sometimes the CMC isn't an outlier. Since it is very much in line with the Euro, I don't see any reason to automatically assume this model is wrong.
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CMC isn’t always wrong though when it’s 20 degrees colder than all models I’m more than dubious that’s for sure lol.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, but not all the time it's an outlier, just like sometimes the CMC isn't an outlier. Since it is very much in line with the Euro, I don't see any reason to automatically assume this model is wrong.
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Globals are too warm in the extended with CAD anyways so even the euro is still too warm at the surface by a couple degrees
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
ICON has a destructive ice storm lol View attachment 68335View attachment 68336
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I wonder how much would be sleet though. Given the warm bias you can take off about 2-4 degrees which would put temps for CLT metro in the 27-29 range. It seems that most of our ice events with temperatures that low end up being a good deal of sleet that holds down ice accrual... which would be fine with me
 
iGRXY said:
Globals are too warm in the extended with CAD anyways so even the euro is still too warm at the surface by a couple degrees
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I remember that we had this conversation last December. Sure, every so often things trend colder with CAD; however, you can't just assume that models are wrong. That's essentially wish-casting, and most of the time sets you up for disappointment.
 
Chazwin said:
I wonder how much would be sleet though. Given the warm bias you can take off about 4-7 degrees which would put temps for CLT metro in the 24-27 range. It seems that most of our ice events with temperatures that low end up being a good deal of sleet that holds down ice accrual... which would be fine with me
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I don't think we can just take off 4-7 degrees
 
I think in one way if we can maybe shave off a few degrees is if we get solid snow tomorrow night around to stick around, this system could really help out the weekend one, but we need at least a couple inches so it doesn’t melt away instantly
 
Ollie Williams said:
I remember that we had this conversation last December. Sure, every so often things trend colder with CAD; however, you can't just assume that models are wrong. That's essentially wish-casting, and most of the time sets you up for disappointment.
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If you get a true CAD especially in the heart of winter as we are in, they almost always trend colder. Globals are always too warm even if by a couple degrees. Even December was a very close call with temps right at freezing but clouds rolled in right at sunset and stopped radiational cooling. You don’t have to take 7 degrees off but a general 1-3 is much more realistic with this type of setup
 
Broken024 said:
Eh even that. Do any other models show that?
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You can’t really use globals temp profiles for CAD. They are always too warm by 1-4 degrees especially towards the edges of the wedge and almost always over perform, today’s wedge is a prime example of that. The only global model that can get pretty close in CAD situations is the Canadian bc it has a strong cold bias at the surface. Usually want to use globals and the ensembles like the euro in this range to get the overall makeup of the storm and the driving forces for it and use the shorter range models, particularly the 3K NAM, for temp profiles when they get into range
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think in one way if we can maybe shave off a few degrees is if we get solid snow tomorrow night around to stick around, this system could really help out the weekend one, but we need at least a couple inches so it doesn’t melt away instantly
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Was going to say, I’m not sure it would be around by then unless the Piedmont and southern Virginia truly get into those 6-10 totals being spit out.
 
iGRXY said:
If you get a true CAD especially in the heart of winter as we are in, they almost always trend colder. Globals are always too warm even if by a couple degrees. Even December was a very close call with temps right at freezing but clouds rolled in right at sunset and stopped radiational cooling. You don’t have to take 7 degrees off but a general 1-3 is much more realistic with this type of setup
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I'm not saying that CAD trends don't occur. I just think that the idea of adding on to ice totals because of a trend that may or may not happen is wishcasting since we actually haven't seen the trend.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I don’t understand why the GFS isn’t agreeing
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Same thing with the Wednesday deal, except it was the other way around with the GFS and Euro. Now the Euro is looking more like the GFS with that one. Still time for the GFS to look more like the Euro with this one.
 
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