LickWx
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
Eastern Greenville county, Spartanburg county, and Cherokee county absolutely hold onto a wedge much longer than anywhere else in the upstate and tend to be the big winners in CAD setups.
Even tho the precip maps still look like ---- (a little better) the GFS is still slowly shifting towards the other models at H5
SWVAwxfan
Member
This is not a central SC storm.
Poor thing 
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
At this point in time, it certainly looks unlikely that central SC will experience anything more than a cold rain. However, there does exist a non-zero chance that should be considered. why? (not in order by importance)
1. NWP Trends have been favorable across the majority of modeling; especially to note the well-respected ECMWF
2. Short-term high resolution have had a tendency lately for stronger, equatorward CAD as we approach T=0 (verified)
3. Planetary + Synoptic Trends towards a miller B H500 composite are evident in modeling. Notably, the increased ridging out west that is shortening the wavelengths allowing the S/W to effectively dig, confluence trending stronger over the Northeast allowing the Parent High Pressure to orientate itself in a more favorable position + the trends southward with the Hudson Bay Block aiding the increased confluence.
4. I think the two most important changes that are responsible for the wintry wx model output is the trend towards higher geopotential heights over the western US, and the trend in the Hudson Bay block shifting southward to a more favorable position in relation to the 50/50 low to center confluence over the Northeast.
5. The ECMWF 250 MB configuration is very similar to high impact CAD events with only a couple more tweaks to match the composite. This should be illustrated in this Gary Lackmann (+ others) Paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/18/4/1520-0434_2003_018_0641_aoccsa_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display
5. Finally, from a climatology standpoint, late Jan into Feb has the highest frequency of classical (dry) CAD events.. so its really not surprising to see these changes towards a more favorable High pressure location.
In the end, nothing may come from this.. composites are only composites... models are only models and change.. no two events are exactly alike.. so we'll just have to see where we fall in the spectrum the next couple of days!
Ended up topping out at 52 here today...20 degrees cooler than the forecasted high from GSP in yesterday afternoon’s update and 17 degrees cooler than the mid-morning update this morning. Definitely one of the biggest CAD temperature busts I’ve seen since moving to eastern Union County nearly 11 years ago. The writing really was on the wall yesterday with the 3kNAM and the HRRR both showing the wedge not breaking down.
The sref isn’t excited, that’s a good thing !!!
Shouldn’t we have a thread for weekend system?
Although I think the GEFS/GFS will cave, I’d wait until they do
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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️BufordWX
Member
If only these snow showers could hold on a few hours longer. I would be in business later tonight. Lol
packfan98
Moderator
Probably tomorrow afternoon if the 0z and 12z hold or improve.
So now we need the Gfs on board but when the Gfs shows us a signifigant winter storm we question if it’s valid .. that’s a funny observation but it holds true it’s just that bad of a model ??
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So now we need the Gfs on board but when the Gfs shows us a signifigant winter storm we question if it’s valid .. that’s a funny observation but it holds true it’s just that bad of a model ??
Yeah, the irony of what the models are showing for the Wednesday and Sunday storms is thick.
iGRXY
Member
The euro at 18z looked better at the end of its run. More CAD and the wave was slightly further south out west.
iGRXY
Member
I’d say if we keep the trends through 12z tomorrow (with or without the GFS) we could start a thread for this weekend
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Gotta love seeing the Euro looking even better. Still crazy how they reversed roles for the Sunday and Wednesday storms.
avlsnow
Member
71 today at the AVL airport. Looking downright cold on Thursday though.
Btw if we get even a few inches of snow cover from the first system, that helps ^^^^
Mid-teens in CLT metro with single digits in VA and wedge building to keep pushing in the lower dewpoints. Hard to not be excited about that look.
iGRXY
Member
That’s why I’m not worried about the borderline temps the models are showing at this range. Single digit dews to our north and teens well into the upstate, and HP building in more and more every run. That screams some kind of winter weather, likely ice, but I could definitely see our temps continue to decrease another 3-7 degrees as we get closer on the globals.
That's what I'm talking about. What's the euro got for the high Saturday
Very good point, assuming there’s enough that there is still some snow cover lying around on Sunday, that would be a huge help. Snow on snow is so rare around here.
iGRXY
Member
I'd like to see the 1030 isobar making it's way in
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Doesn’t the wedge usually push further west. Seems to be coming down further to east
Looks like the EPS backed off
iGRXY
Member
Control looks good
Not really, it's about the same, just a little different. It went down by about 0.3"
iGRXY
Member
It looks generally the same to me. H5 looks better with more ridging out west behind it. The wedge generally stayed about the same as did the temps.
Confluence was a little bit East but yeah it wasn’t a trend to really worry about at all
Control would be a major ice storm sheesh 1.3” of qpf around charlotte
Notice how this one is happening when our block above is decaying, goes in line with the classic fading -NAO when we try to get something
LickWx
Member
Bruh. So Asheville in the 70s and we aren’t . Smh we are severely overdue , this is a once in a lifetime treat for those who aren’t fans or warm winter days . Give me the first half of Jan 2005 again. Would be more tolerable if I had some seasonably mild days but it looks solidly 6-7 degrees below average next 10 if not more .
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Nice. Wonder if we'll see it shift south the next couple of days like we saw with the Wednesday storm.
Jessy89
Member
Upstate sc peeps North of 85 has to like today’s Euro trends for Sunday morning
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