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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

lmaooo
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM: The wedge sure is stubborn to erode east of the
mountains, as the low-level flow remains just south of due west,
and a sfc cold front is slow to cross the mountains from the
west. Have tweaked sky cover and max temps to line up with the
slower trend. High temps across the I-77 corridor have been knocked
down another category or so. The drizzle has generally dissipated,
but lowering cigs are causing some dense fog in spots along the
edge of the cloud deck, as the wedge erodes. Areas where the sun
is out, temps are generally on track.
Click to expand...
 
Something key to point out ... it’s quite crazy how different the euro and Gfs are for both systems ... the crazy thing to think about is the euro doesn’t really have the system Thursday as big as the Gfs and if it were to bust it would only make the system Sunday even colder .. for CAD areas at least ... the euro has this big of a storm without the snow cover of the GFS
 
3 feet modeled for Fredericksburg VA.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
the euro is the January blizzard of 2016 all over again
Click to expand...
It's funny, I think of that storm as so quintessentially Super El Nino, and yet it's a pretty good analogy for the 12z ECMWF (at least in terms of snowfall output). This post-SSW pattern hasn't been blockbuster cold/snowy, but I think it's pretty clearly curtailed the usual Nina southeast ridge tendencies.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Something key to point out ... it’s quite crazy how different the euro and Gfs are for both systems ... the crazy thing to think about is the euro doesn’t really have the system Thursday as big as the Gfs and if it were to bust it would only make the system Sunday even colder .. for CAD areas at least ... the euro has this big of a storm without the snow cover of the GFS
Click to expand...

We have plenty of time for changes and to see if the GFS come around, too. Still, there is no consensus with the two for both systems, and it's crazy trying to figure out which one is right for each system.
 
RVD said:
It's funny, I think of that storm as so quintessentially Super El Nino, and yet it's a pretty good analogy for the 12z ECMWF (at least in terms of snowfall output). This post-SSW pattern hasn't been blockbuster cold/snowy, but I think it's pretty clearly curtailed the usual Nina southeast ridge tendencies.
Click to expand...
Another thing about that 2016 storm is that it kept trending south right up until it got here. I wasn’t supposed to see much of anything other than some onset freezing rain according to the forecast at 5pm the night before. Instead I got a quick 1/2 of snow, then about 1/10 of ice, then 1.25 inches of sleet, another 1/10 of ice then another 1/2 inch of snow on the back side...temps stayed in the upper 20s for the whole event
 
Two outtakes from the weekend system:

1.) As stated before you never want to be in that bullseye this far out. It hardly ever pans out. I'd rather be where we are right now than where DC is now. If every 5+ day fantasy storm came to fruition, CLT would have over 20 inches of snow. Yes, climo say's the MA probably stands a better chance but still. They have missed out from looked like a decent storm on Thursday.

2.) Never underestimate the power of CAD. Temps busted big time here today, (on the low side.) A few days ago we were supposed to hit 72. Basically, don't pay attention to temps, dew points, warm noses until we get closer to the end of the week. But I do like the trends, let's reel this one in guys!
 
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