• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
He’s a nowcastologist.
Click to expand...
Yeah I remember during Hurricane Isaias last year he made a big stink about the storm making this big easterly turn as it approached because of 1 recon center fix that showed it. It was clearly just an eye wobble from a lopsided storm not indicative of overall motion (which turned out to be the case). Got into an argument with him about it on twitter lol. So I'm not so sure about that guy.
 
Yeah Brad is let’s just say a more wait until right until the event to start honking at a more serious threat. Not that I agree with that type of broadcast meteorology but that’s his style. But to see the EPS mean in the 30’s for most of the CAD regions of North and South Carolina is a bit concerning. IF, and that’s a big IF, we maintain the CAD look then it’s likely going to trend colder the closer we get to the event. We definitely aren’t in fantasy land with this one so those in the CAD areas should watch this one closely.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
There are plenty of signs. The euro, Canadian, and UK agree. The only model that doesn’t show a sign is the GFS. If the GFS was the only one showing a storm would he be honking it? No.
Click to expand...
He hugs whatever model shows the least or no snow/ice. I think hes a decent forecaster most of the time but he drives me nuts when he gets on his soapbox and tells people they are ridiculous for even thinking it may snow when there is data to support it.
 
KyloG said:
ICON trends. If we can get a 200 mile south shift we would really have something.

View attachment 68056
Click to expand...
These things have trended further south as we’ve gotten closer to the events so that looks to likely be the case here. Also if you start getting CAD the LP isn’t likely going to be able to cut to the Ohio valley or up the apps.
 
iGRXY said:
Yeah Brad is let’s just say a more wait until right until the event to start honking at a more serious threat. Not that I agree with that type of broadcast meteorology but that’s his style. But to see the EPS mean in the 30’s for most of the CAD regions of North and South Carolina is a bit concerning. IF, and that’s a big IF, we maintain the CAD look then it’s likely going to trend colder the closer we get to the event. We definitely aren’t in fantasy land with this one so those in the CAD areas should watch this one closely.
Click to expand...
Yeah and I’m not saying to start throwing accumulation maps up on the 5 o’clock news or even futurecast for it yet but instead saying something like we are closely monitoring a potential winter storm. To say there are no signs is just totally inaccurate.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Yeah and I’m not saying to start throwing accumulation maps up on the 5 o’clock news or even futurecast for it yet but instead saying something like we are closely monitoring a potential winter storm. To say there are no signs is just totally inaccurate.
Click to expand...
He’s started this bad habit where he says there’s no threat, or no impact to our area, no chance of something happening when it comes to winter storms and tropical weather. And he’s been wrong way more times or has to change his tone quickly. I respect Brad’s knowledge but it’s getting a little out of hand with the absolutes that he says when clearly there is a threat for some kind of winter weather potentially.
 
iGRXY said:
He’s started this bad habit where he says there’s no threat, or no impact to our area, no chance of something happening when it comes to winter storms and tropical weather. And he’s been wrong way more times or has to change his tone quickly. I respect Brad’s knowledge but it’s getting a little out of hand with the absolutes that he says when clearly there is a threat for some kind of winter weather potentially.
Click to expand...

Goes from Brad Panicovich to Brad Asleepattheswitch
 
SD said:
Yeah that's a solid ice storm look. Probably would go to rain on the edges of the wedge
Click to expand...
We’re gonna get one soon, it’s a matter of time (not saying it’ll be this one), seems like we often get these looks then they back off, or trend colder to more IP
 
znel52 said:
I'm not real familiar with the ICON model. Is it even remotely reliable? I would take a good ice storm it has been years since we had one in this area.
Click to expand...
It's okay. But it does have major support from the EURO and EPS which makes its solution right now a lot more reliable. But in the longer range (Beyond 72-84 hrs) it has a pretty bad warm bias at the surface. For it to depict low to mid 30's that far out with CAD building in and pushing further south with each run is a big red flag for a potential winter storm (ICE storm more likely). Actual temps would likely range from 26-30 degrees from the piedmont through the upstate with the look it's currently depicting.
 
I don’t know where in the world TWC is getting it’s current condition in Wingate from. The app is saying that it’s 52 right now with a NNW wind which give an indication that the wedge is trying to lift out. My home weather station has 47 with a NNE wind. The NWS is reporting 45 at the Monroe airport
 
GFS is trending south and has a good bit more CAD out ahead but the surface temps are in the low to mid 40s still.
 
The wild thing is that even behind this CAD storm Models are picking out that upper level low getting things going over us .. probably convective? Peep the ICON this is near the end of the run .. precip breaking out56799937-B270-4C7C-9C9F-204074E4BAE9.jpeg
 
lulz
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM: Challenging temp forecast for the morning update,
as 12z GSO sounding and area metars show a very strong inversion
above a stubborn in-situ wedge across much of the Piedmont this
morning. The southern edge of the wedge is beginning to erode across
the southern Upstate, with temps already in the 60s where the sun
has broken out. Meanwhile, temps are in the 40s (even some upper
30s in the far northeast corner) within the wedge. Still expect
continued erosion of the wedge from the south, while a trailing
cold front remains hung up along the mountains. So most of the
area should see the wedge erode and temps jump well into the 60s
(with lower 70s across the extreme southern zones). The area with
the most bust potential will be the I-77 corridor, where the
NAM in particular holds the wedge in until well into the aftn,
and results in temps mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As for
PoPs, the drier 850 mb flow should end precip chances, but there
are patches of drizzle within the wedge attm.
Click to expand...
edit: wedge is retreating some, up to 47 here and the anderson area is mid-high 50s as opposed to high 40s an hour ago or so
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top