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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

KyloG said:
I will chase this to Richmond if Saturday's runs show 10"+ event.
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One big rule of thumb for me is that north trends happen much more frequently and efficiently than south trends. That said, if you're going to get south trends, you tend to see them more in years with big blocks. As was said earlier, another 100 miles or so south with the parent, and this will be a big dog for many. And that is definitely doable.
 
Dunkman said:
I think I’d drive north on 85 instead of south...
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Yeah, but my parents live in Greensboro, and I don’t have any family north on 85, haha. Greensboro looks to be in a better situation with this one than Durham most likely. I’d certainly rather be in Richmond, though!
 
Rain Cold said:
One big rule of thumb for me is that north trends happen much more frequently and efficiently than south trends. That said, if you're going to get south trends, you tend to see them more in years with big blocks. As was said earlier, another 100 miles or so south with the parent, and this will be a big dog for many. And that is definitely doable.
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Look how much the Wednesday system moved south compared to a couple of days ago. Seems to be the trend lately.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Inside 5 days, too. January looks like it's ending with a bang.
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BRICK I told you on Dec 21st to hang tight. Hate to toot my own horn,but surely wed night or sunday RDU can not screw up my LR Forecast from a month ago.

Reactions:Myfrotho704_, whatalife and Rain Cold

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NCSNOW
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Dec 21, 2020
Raleigh, Roanoke Rapids and Wake Forest, will see/reach their seasonal snowfall average by January 31st. Congrats Brick,SD,RC,Metwannabe

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Rain Cold said:
One big rule of thumb for me is that north trends happen much more frequently and efficiently than south trends. That said, if you're going to get south trends, you tend to see them more in years with big blocks. As was said earlier, another 100 miles or so south with the parent, and this will be a big dog for many. And that is definitely doable.
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It does seem that this year, the south trend has been seen more than recent years. However looking back at 2009-2010, that year we saw a lot systems trend south before correcting a little north in the last 24 hours
 
Dunkman said:
I can’t ever remember getting snow with a Miller B that transferred from Kentucky to Hatteras. Maybe on the backside? I guess if it’s ever going to happen it would be the last half of January.
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Yeah, I’ve always been under the impression the Miller Bs that work out for us transfer a lot further south than that. It seems like Miller Bs that actually work out for us have been few and far between the last decade or two...one of the reasons CLT and upstate SC have been in such a snow drought (they do comparatively better than GSO/RDU in Miller Bs according to Webber’s analysis).
 
Dunkman said:
I can’t ever remember getting snow with a Miller B that transferred from Kentucky to Hatteras. Maybe on the backside? I guess if it’s ever going to happen it would be the last half of January.
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Best chance is the front end finger of precip that sneaks in. Or if the damming is strong/deep enough, a brief change from zr/ip to sn on the backside, like you said.
 
KyloG said:
Funny...Thursday's low out of Canada got underneath the block and screwed up the HP from building in. For the Monday deal a low get's on top of the block to help us. The stronger and further south that gets the better.

View attachment 68185
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For SC we would also need the ridge to be further west. Who knows maybe it would trend better.
 
I think you're also seeing the globals do that wonderful thing where they try to Drive LP right into CAD and strong HP over the Northeast and southern Canada which won't happen.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Wow still too warm for central SC need a stronger cold push.
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You still need to take 4-7 degrees off those temps for the LR warm bias the ICON has. If you keep trending stronger and further south with the CAD. The LP will also have to drive further south which will knock even more degrees off those temps the closer you get. Not saying this will happen but when looking at the ICOn right here you can likely take 5-10 degrees off all those temps due to the warm bias and nature of CAD trending stronger closer to storm time. IF we maintain this Miller B look.
 
I take back what I said about the icon, yeah the CAD was stronger per MSLP but the ridging behind the system was meh Vs last run, and the confluence was a bit more East
 
Topped out at 57 degrees and have stayed there since 2 pm. The warm front never cleared the NC/SC border and pretty much stopped right near highway 25 in greenville county.
 
Poimen said:
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Very interesting things setting up here .. let’s dissect this a bit ... you see this initial storm on Thursday .. solid consensus on at least a light storm .. then a clear signal for a larger winter storm for the weekend .. but like with all classic Miller B systems there’s always an upper level feature that lags behind the initial storm and hits a day or so later which is what’s being picked up on a lot of ensembles and you can roughly see that here... very interesting we may have really hit the jackpot with this pattern here
 
iGRXY said:
Topped out at 57 degrees and have stayed there since 2 pm. The warm front never cleared the NC/SC border and pretty much stopped right near highway 25 in greenville county.
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Made it to all of 58 here. 14 degree miss from GSP. Tough forecast
 
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