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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Storm5 said:
Northern stream isn’t that far behind . It’s all timing as always ANd most importantly it’s post day ten


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I agree. Still lots of potential and things to iron out. Could this be a year where we get something to pop up without much warning?
 
Storm5 said:
Northern stream isn’t that far behind . It’s all timing as always ANd most importantly it’s post day ten .

Edit :Even with a faster northern stream and or slower southern energy temps still suck
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At this point based on recent model consensus, I'd be surprised if there doesn't end up being 1-2 threats within 1/21-5 to cause a separate thread to be needed. I'm not saying one is needed now because it is still too early. But by late week/weekend, I predict there will be a thread warranted and created.
 
GaWx said:
At this point based on recent model consensus, I'd be surprised if there doesn't end up being 1-2 threats within 1/21-5 to cause a separate thread to be needed. I'm not saying one is needed now because it is still too early. But by late week/weekend, I predict there will be a thread warranted and created.
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I think there will be as well even if it’s just a thread for Brent lol . I just hope we score by the 25th cause things look hostile after that


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GFS still looks wonky with our coastal next week, not really diving into it but seems its struggling with how to resolve the energy. I still like where the euro and eps are at this lead time. GFS will catch on eventually

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Interestingly, with the 2nd wave on the GEFS, there's about 6 or 7 that don't at all just dive south. There's even a couple that don't bring snow into Alabama/Georgia because of how far north they are (mainly TN/NC).

So, there's a chance here.
 
TOMMOROW Marks the half way point of Met winter. Never been shutout imby. However if we miss this upcoming 12 to 15 day window, i will have to entertain the unthinkable. Cant tell if we head back to the crap pattern thats dominated this winter or the re shuffle holds serve. Words of wisdom is to "always bet the streak." Forget who coined that over on easternwx back in the day. But its stood the test of time.
 
KyloG said:
We don’t need arctic blocking but we can’t have this either.

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That really matches the indices well. Not sure it matters what the MJO does with a strong undisturbed PV with an active STJ. Doesn't exactly scream cold to me. The GFS is flat out wrong on a -EPO and we know that. There are no signs of a SSWE either. With what I'm seeing today there is no indication of a good pattern locking in. And if it does with every tele against us then we have to acknowledge that there are forces simply unknown to weather forecasting at this time. But I'm sure theres no magic formula hiding in the bushes ready to run out and save us. We need changes up top and we simply aren't seeing it.
 
People see operational models without snow and for 1 or 2 cycles and just go canceling like it’s nothing ... we’re seeing a good amount of cold and definitely much more cold than we’ve been seeing be modeled in the past half of winter .. in no way shape or form can u cancel winter at this juncture .. some of y’all are being ridiculous
 
Welp I'll chase this for the next 4-5 days. Btw does anyone have the eps h5 in the late hours?

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Nick_boynton_ said:
People see operational models without snow and for 1 or 2 cycles and just go canceling like it’s nothing ... we’re seeing a good amount of cold and definitely much more cold than we’ve been seeing be modeled in the past half of winter .. in no way shape or form can u cancel winter at this juncture .. some of y’all are being ridiculous
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I don't know who you're referring to, but I havent canceled winter. I simply stated that in my opinion this cold pattern is just a mirage and stated plenty of facts to back that up. If you don't agree then please tell me why you think its going to be a great pattern setting up?
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
That really matches the indices well. Not sure it matters what the MJO does with a strong undisturbed PV with an active STJ. Doesn't exactly scream cold to me. The GFS is flat out wrong on a -EPO and we know that. There are no signs of a SSWE either. With what I'm seeing today there is no indication of a good pattern locking in. And if it does with every tele against us then we have to acknowledge that there are forces simply unknown to weather forecasting at this time. But I'm sure theres no magic formula hiding in the bushes ready to run out and save us. We need changes up top and we simply aren't seeing it.
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In the short term this doesn’t look promising but climo says our best month is ahead of us. This is a workable pattern...the tPV just needs to get stretched/shoved off the pole.
 
KyloG said:
In the short term this doesn’t look promising but climo says our best month is ahead of us. This is a workable pattern...the tPV just needs to get stretched/shoved off the pole.
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I agree it's a lot better than what we see now. And it could progress to a good look. I think the models the last few days jumped the gun and we were always further from a favorable pattern locking in that what was shown. Its better than a constant west coast trough and north Pacific death ridge look. But as you said until the tPV moves and we see changes up there I'm not sure MJO will be a factor at all unless it was high amp 8 and 1. That might would get things shuffling around up there. And I'll admit I don't have a clue what it'll take to dislodge the tPV. I just know the next two weeks doesn't look great for doing it.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I'm certainly not expecting a 2nd once in a generation winter storm just 2 years later. Having 2 wintry events with one major and the other minor just two years apart is one thing and is rare enough. But another early Jan 2018 storm just 2 years later? The closest thing I can find to that is way back in the 1890s (1/1893 and 2/1895) and then the winter of 1851-2 had two nice ones though neither as big as 1/2018 in liquid equiv. 1976-7 also had two but neither was anywhere near 1/2018 for liquid equiv. 1985-6 also had two but with neither major.

Edit: Winter of 1799-1800 had multiple events, including the real big one.
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In Saskatchewan The winter of 1799-1800 was so unseasonably mild that bison herds and the hunting bands that pursued them stayed out on the plains.

People probably forgot, at least momentarily, how bad Saskatchewan winters could be.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks. So, the 12Z EPS surprisingly to me has ~25% of its members with snow most concentrated on/near the coast. I didn't expect that many and having that high a % of EPS members there is quite uncommon since snow there is pretty rare and this is the EPS, not the usually colder GEFS. This is consistent with the Myrtle Beach snow members that were posted. Interesting to say the least. Check this out @Stormsfury, @Bham 99, other CHS area members, and even @pcbjr. Also, @Shaggy and @Downeastnc.
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Thanks for that. This is my first winter on the coast. I imagine there are ten times more forecast busts in regards to snow than it snowing. And I imagine it's one of those things where you're really not certain it's going to do it until it starts.
 
I'm about to unleash the delete beast, ok it's not that dramatic BUT, there is a ton of off topic discussion in here. One word post, no thread specific post, wrong thread post..... ladies and gents, it's a tad annoying. Please please please follow the very loose few guidelines we have and keep this a flowing, fun reading experience for all. And as always thanks for flying with SouthernWx.

Carry on....

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
I don't know who you're referring to, but I havent canceled winter. I simply stated that in my opinion this cold pattern is just a mirage and stated plenty of facts to back that up. If you don't agree then please tell me why you think its going to be a great pattern setting up?
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There is a clear pattern change coming up... MJO forecasts have us going straight into 7.. Gfs has done better with its MJO forecasts than any model and has us circling through 7 and into 8 also take a look at the image below as the Monday evening euro weekly run was much colder than previously forecasted for the last week of January and beginning of February .. we need to establish the cold first (which is what is currently being modeled) and then look out for storm threats which are all THERE we live in the south we need to flip the switch and wait for the rest of the atmosphere to cooperate before we get some big time solidified threats
 

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I remember quoting wow yesterday or the day before we about to lose everything for a few days like the models always do. Well it’s happening. Glory may come back Friday imo or sooner who knows. Cooler weather should boost our odds esp climo areas of GA/SC/NC
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
There is a clear pattern change coming up... MJO forecasts have us going straight into 7.. Gfs has done better with its MJO forecasts than any model and has us circling through 7 and into 8 also take a look at the image below as the Monday evening euro weekly run was much colder than previously forecasted for the last week of January and beginning of February .. we need to establish the cold first (which is what is currently being modeled) and then look out for storm threats which are all THERE we live in the south we need to flip the switch and wait for the rest of the atmosphere to cooperate before we get some big time solidified threats
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I agree fully about a pattern change coming. You make a good point there. My opinion is it isn't exactly what people want or think it is with a huge trough over the east locked in with multiple threats. Those cold models all have one thing in common, a -EPO which has been a unicorn all year and we have a strong consolidated tPV up near the pole with a +AO and +NAO. Not sure where all the love for phase 7 came from. And down below is the newest GEFS which doesn't get to 8.20200114_192639.jpg20200114_193634.jpg
 
At one point we had 5 days forecast above 60 but think we only made it once this past Sunday. Just as well, was off Sunday and don't mind working as much when the weather is crappy outside. The Sat CAD system looks like it is drying up where it counts so will just have to look forward to the colder temps next week.

18Z GFS has some silly looks with those storms but at least still has cold available. Wind issues could be a thing if we really get a wrapped up storm east and a big high west.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I agree fully about a pattern change coming. You make a good point there. My opinion is it isn't exactly what people want or think it is with a huge trough over the east locked in with multiple threats. Those cold models all have one thing in common, a -EPO which has been a unicorn all year and we have a strong consolidated tPV up near the pole with a +AO and +NAO. Not sure where all the love for phase 7 came from. And down below is the newest GEFS which doesn't get to 8.View attachment 30921View attachment 30922
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I think Webb’s post here shows why there’s love for phase 7

Webb’s post below
Webberweather53 said:
Just as a refresher:

"When you look at Januarys where the MJO was in phase 7 for at least 3 successive days (1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1992, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016) east-central NC picked up a winter storm a whopping 60% of the time!

Since 1985, the frequency has increased and we've picked up a winter storm nearly 80% of the time (10 of the last 13 cases) when the MJO was in phase 7 in January!!"

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https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-116#post-220651


Cmonnnn phase 7!
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Ethan80963 said:
I think Webb’s post here shows why there’s love for phase 7

Webb’s post below
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And it very well may this time too next week. But it probably won't do me or you any good. We're not east/central NC. But this isn't a mby post. My analysis is on a pattern and not 1 specific storm and the outlook doesn't support long lasting cold atm. Could it change? Yes and I hope it does.
 
Let me remind everyone that as we start getting busy the back and forth banter will be deleted so no need to message anyone on staff to complain this is the warning . We have a treasure trove of amazing posters with great knowledge and people come here to learn and to get information. We have a banter thread and the whamby thread for a reason . So use it


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One thing that’s not believable is that big system diving south into Texas and LA producing wintry weather then magically 84 hours later a big system fires out of the gulf..yeah ok
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I agree fully about a pattern change coming. You make a good point there. My opinion is it isn't exactly what people want or think it is with a huge trough over the east locked in with multiple threats. Those cold models all have one thing in common, a -EPO which has been a unicorn all year and we have a strong consolidated tPV up near the pole with a +AO and +NAO. Not sure where all the love for phase 7 came from. And down below is the newest GEFS which doesn't get to 8.View attachment 30921View attachment 30922
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Eric Webb said that phase 7 is "the phase" that produces winter storms for NC
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
One thing that’s not believable is that big system diving south into Texas and LA producing wintry weather then magically 84 hours later a big system fires out of the gulf..yeah ok
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I don't want to get caught up in model flip flopping of a particular storm. The timeframe is favorable and I hope we can squeeze something out because I'm less optimistic than most we lock a good pattern so quick. However the pattern doesn't look real hostile and can easily trend better and Feb can still turn out good unlike the last few.
 
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