0Z Euro: looking like precip may end up more inland and heavier but also the push of colder is weaker. So, would it even be cold enough this time where the precip reaches onshore? That's almost always the concern with a NW trend. We'll see.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
After that storm, look at how warm it is at 240 of the 0Z Euro! What happened to all of that modeled cold air? Fiction? I know the models are almost all cold biased these days, but this much? Jan 25th had been modeled to be in the midst of a cold period in the SE, but it is now almost a torch?!
Another gulf of Alaska low to mess the pacific pattern up.. although that monster Aleutian low is bringing the 500 mb heights in Alaska. -epo signal sorta. 
Honestly not a bad look .. hear me out lol .. it’s going to be fairly short lived there’s tons of blocking around and all that is heading towards Greenland .. I believe if the model were to move forward storms would begin getting stuck under all that ridging heading towards Greenland and the poles .. even with all that it wouldn’t be anything close to a torch .. 50s are being modeled outside of the CAD regions which remain fairly cool ... no torch just blocking
The point is that it is showing AN when this was solidly BN for several days ensemble runs. The models are cold biased. The supposed change to dominating cold continues to be a mirage. Why would this change now?
Fool me one, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me dozens of times, will I ever learn?
Well, that's the longer range. Before that we still have the potential wintry event for the SE. Whereas the cold push on the 0Z EPS isn't as strong as that on the 12Z EPS (mirroring the 0Z Euro op), it appears that there will likely still be a good number of members with coastal snow possiblty similar to the 12Z. We'll see when the individual members are out as I don't have them.
Edit: And yes I see the 0Z EPS after being so much warmer than 24 hours ago for most of the run once again shows the sucker mirage of cold late in the run. I expect certain folks to harp on that and ignore the majority of the run that is warmer. Be my guest. It is comical. Sometimes I think it isn't worth posting about warmth in winter any more.
Edit: And yes I see the 0Z EPS after being so much warmer than 24 hours ago for most of the run once again shows the sucker mirage of cold late in the run. I expect certain folks to harp on that and ignore the majority of the run that is warmer. Be my guest. It is comical. Sometimes I think it isn't worth posting about warmth in winter any more.
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That was an interesting run. There is so much energy flying around. Maybe we get a back and forth pattern for now, with parades of storms? Not all winter weather storms but all types of storm systems.
Yeah, make a post about warmth and you take some heat on here sometimes unfortunately, but yeah that pattern at 240 on the EPS ain’t gonna cut it, looks so nino-ish with a active SS, but AN 850s/temps associated with a big big Canadian ridge, this pattern supports soakers
No big torch, but not a good cold/winter weather pattern, mild pacific air ftl
Six Mile Wx
Member
We want to see that Ridge move closer to Greenland. Then possibly game on if we can get the pacific side to cooperate.
And that’s what it does when you run it out a little farther.
And that’s what it does when you run it out a little farther.6Z GFS: look out as the Arctic high is much stronger (1052 mb!) in the N Rockies and the trough axis may end up settling further west once in the E US.
Edit: this run is looking to bring much colder air down into the SE. Will it also be dry? Maybe
Edit: this run is looking to bring much colder air down into the SE. Will it also be dry? Maybe
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Much better run of the gfs at H5 for system of interest #1, actually has a little SW on the base, if we get that to trend stronger there may be ULL snow from that instead 
However the GEFS is even more suppressed with it, should be seeing any “NW trend” by now
Shaggy
Member
I never want to see the NW trend until we are inside 48hrs of its suppressed. Suppression is fine I can live with that all day long at this range. The pattern is gonna changeand be more favorable and thats the most important part right now. We have a few days for details to work themselves out.
Not surprising, moves towards the Euro with more energy at the base of the trough and much further west. Interesting.?
Just because we’re a few degrees above normal for a couple days doesn’t mean we need to poop our pants were not going to die and it’s in no way shape or form a torch... it’s a progressive pattern which means we could have lots of flipping and flopping of the models with wild swings in solutions until the models figure out the energy that’s being progressed .. in no way should we be cliff jumping right now .. so premature ??
Or, that energy may phase and then, well, you know what. Go big or go home!
This is also what I was alluding to earlier those higher heights are progressing towards Greenland which then can be hugely beneficial to us let’s slow the roll a bit
Also to bird mans point earlier there’s no way we recover or bounce back that much at least for CAD regions after a massive cold blast like that .. would give those regions at least an ice type storm to deal with per GEFS support that solution as well .. ITS NOT OVER cause one 00z run of the euro showed a few degrees of above normal temps for a couple days
NCCWOP9077
Member
Need to keep this up #babysteps
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ATLwxfan
Member
Totally and you can’t let these few runs discount the teleconnections and the MJO. Don’t become blind to reason but rely upon it.
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whatalife
Moderator
Take from this what you will and here are the 00z 500mb ensemble the suits days 10-15.
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I’ll take itTake from this what you will and here are the 00z 500mb ensemble the suits days 10-15.
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whatalife
Moderator
It's not optimal, some blocking would be nice or more of the -EPO like the GEPS is showing but as mentioned I've seen worse and I guess beggars can't be choosersTake from this what you will and here are the 00z 500mb ensemble the suits days 10-15.
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Oh boy!
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Still not zero. A few more cycles and we should get there 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's probably best not to get too concerned or too excited about each model run for anything past 5 days. There has been so much flip flopping in the just the last 24 hours, from great model runs and potential in the long range for winter storms to warmer and rain. Those great runs might change to what we have now, but what we have now might change, too, in the next 24 to 48 hours. It is maddening, but I think the models just can't get a grasp of the pattern past a week anymore because the way our climate is now. The computer logarithms just suck for anything past 5 to 7 days, and that is why there is so much variation. I might just go back to checking out the RAH forecast discussions and wait until they mention snow to come back on the board. It was nice when I was gone for a while and not checking the board all day. The only reason I came back this week is because of the severe weather threat, and then I saw the s word mentioned in this thread, and it dragged me back in
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
That's literally only one day. Because a storm moves through. It gets cold right after that
you guys really want a northwest trend 140hrs out? i'll keep suppression through the weekend and then take my chances.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Take a look at this graphic below makes you wonder why we can get cold but have nothing to show for it he'll it may not even verify
Jon
Member
That account flips like the modeling. Every post is what the latest modeled temp departure is. Not sure how anyone can follow that with confidence.
He can’t take away this cold that is ending up verifying very, very nicely for early next week.
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Nerman
Member
As someone a lot smarter than me on here said, "Come to Butthead".
This system coming up mid next week has some serious Jan 3rd 2018 vibes. Even the trajectory of the snow accumulation is exactly what the storm in Jan 2018 was. Which is probably not good for Central SC but this time, if it snows in Myrtle beach or the coast, I am taking off work and heading there to see it.