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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

mrdaddyman said:
I like that look if that cold air continues to swing South and East but it's also DRY AS A BONE. I'm sure the faucet will turn off once it gets here.
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It would likely be temporary. You might slow cut back on the amount of activity in the STJ and suppress it at times with the northern stream but it's not going away

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Well, this post from Greg Fishel on Facebook doesn't sound optimistic.

Hey quick update on the Winter-it’s been cancelled! Well I guess some anomalous event could take place sometime between and the end of March, but I sure wouldn’t count on it. This pattern is about as hopeless as the winters in the early 1990s when if I’m remembering correctly we went over 2 years without measurable snow. Not ready to predict that just yet. Hope springs eternal snow lovers, but don’t go to Vegas and bet on snow as the house will more than likely take your money.
 
ATLwxfan said:
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That was a huge change and possible game-changer on the GEFS' MJO this morning. And the EPS agreed in a much more subtle way based on its own trend. Taking into account biases when initialized in the Maritime Continent, I'd expect the GEFS will end up too amplified and the EPS to not be amplified enough. Also, the GEFS tends to be not progressive enough and EPS the opposite. We'll have to see how this plays out but it is hard not to like today's changes!
 
Probably not much of a discussion yet but that was one heck of some icing for Memphis starting at hour 336 on the 12Z GFS.
 
Also, if we had enough cold air in place, that low track through AL would do wonders for Memphis and parts of the Mid-South.
 
As long as that strong northern Pacific ridge is there, so will the ridge over the western Atlantic. What's going to be happening is, that ridge over the northern Pacific is going to make the jet stream dip over the west, while the jet rises over the east. As long as that ridge is there over the northern Pacific, this will not allow the jet to dip over the east. There will not be any deep cold air surges south and east as we approach mid-month. There could be some transient cold shots, but I doubt there will be any solid cold air that would hold it's place for many of days. That ridge over the northern Pacific needs to go, if not, the ridge over the western Atlantic would hold it's position as well. Or, of course the ridge would need to translate pole ward towards Alaska to allow the jet to dip over the east.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_5.png

Looking ahead on the 12z EPS from today, the strong ridge over the Pacific is no longer there and the ridge over the east starts to relax. This look is more of a "relaxed" pattern and colder. So, if this pattern happens, the southern stream would probably become less active mid to late month.
ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png
Overall, the pattern does not look that exciting. I'm hoping the pattern will flip fast because each time a warmer pattern happens, the winters become shorter. The winters here are already short as is. Who knows, after this horrible warm spring like pattern, the bottom falls out and we end up with a massive snow storm by late month. Something needs to give fast!
 
John1122 said:
Don't really understand what Cohen means with his statement. He acts like looking at the MJO is some kind of last resort to see a pattern change. We all know it is actually a pretty strong indicator or potential pattern shifts.
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I actually don't recall Cohen really ever being right. I'm sure he has been, and I'm sure his methods have some merit, but he's generally driving on the wrong side of the road.
 
Everybody's favorite Good Ole JB has been talking about pattern change for couple weeks for latter part of Jan. Also in his winter forecast he had mild to average up until later part of Jan with a cold feb and march. Hmmm oh well we shall see how he turns out.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Everybody's favorite Good Ole JB has been talking about pattern change for couple weeks for latter part of Jan. Also in his winter forecast he had mild to average up until later part of Jan with a cold feb and march. Hmmm oh well we shall see how he turns out.
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He did on his 2nd (colder) version? I thought he had an average Dec but N to BN Jan. I don't recall him having an AN Jan like we'll almost certainly end up with regardless of late month. And March doesn't count to me in winter temp fcast as that's DJF, which he had changed to N to BN.

In other words, I don't see JB deserving any praise right now.
 
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