John1122
Member
The pattern was really nice, even if the model didn't show a ton of snow. The 2nd storm in the 288ish timeframe was classic miller A. I'd take that set up all day in Tennessee and the Western half of North Carolina.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
The pattern was really nice, even if the model didn't show a ton of snow. The 2nd storm in the 288ish timeframe was classic miller A. I'd take that set up all day in Tennessee and the Western half of North Carolina.
Exactly we may not have had big fantasy storm but it definitely showed a pattern very conducive of spitting out some winter weather in the southeast .. just need some things to wiggle here and there but we won’t get those details until we get closer all we can say is things look to definitely be turning around soon just a litttttleeeee more patience
Fwiw the GEFS has a few more members for the “system” around the 17-18th vs previous runs. Here’s an example of GSP 18z vs 00z.
(Note these convert frozen precip to snow)
18z
00z
(Note these convert frozen precip to snow)
18z
00z
Using the GFS OP as an example, not taking this pattern officially. But this is a much better look, if we can see this pattern on the ensembles we might be in for some business. You see what happens when that strong ridge over the northern Pacific gets replaced by a trough? The trough makes the jet stream rise over the west (+PNA, western ridge) while the jet dips over the east, allowing the deeper cold air to reach further south and east. As I said before, that strong northern Pacific ridge needs to go, or evolve pole ward towards Alaska (-EPO) to make the jet dip further south and east. Too bad this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours, so this pattern is speculation until we see ensemble support and consistency.
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Interesting time frame, there will still likely be a SER, but the Sfc will likely be cool during this time from artic high pressure, certainly supports icy conditions with shallow cold air somewhere
Strange this looks oddly familiar to what the euro ensembles were showing days ago .. I think it’s a safe bet to stay with the eps in the middle to long range for sure .. nice to see the Gfs climbing aboard slowlyUsing the GFS OP as an example, not taking this pattern officially. But this is a much better look, if we can see this pattern on the ensembles we might be in for some business. You see what happens when that strong ridge over the northern Pacific gets replaced by a trough? The trough makes the jet stream rise over the west (+PNA, western ridge) while the jet dips over the east, allowing the deeper cold air to reach further south and east. As I said before, that strong northern Pacific ridge needs to go, or evolve pole ward towards Alaska (-EPO) to make the jet dip further south and east. Too bad this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours, so this pattern is speculation until we see ensemble support and consistency.
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Is it too early to whine about the warm nose? 
Gefs is certainly interesting if you live in CAD areas around this time (or the upper SE), 50/50 low has been trending south and stronger, and the response has been a high pressure further south in better position for a CAD, got a little ridge axis extending in the GLs, miller B pattern to me (yea there not the best but at this point it’s the best we can get)
06z gfs is loaded with potential
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Some Gefs members latching on to something around hour 198, looks like some overrunning setups on single ensemble members, OPs will probably show something soon 
GFS shows something interesting, it’s been trending stronger with a vortex around SE Canada/NE us, this would act to funnel in HP/CAA, and you also got some energy around the Baja, speed that up a bit and things get fun (like some members on the gefs show) 
One more post lol, but the gefs has also been trending stronger with that low in Canada, which would act as confluence 
ATLwxfan
Member
Taking the kiddos on MLK weekend to the bunny slopes at Sapphire Valley and maybe Cataloochee. Verbatim on the 06z GFS, they may be smiling.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Darth Weenie has spoken...
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NoSnowATL
Member
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packfan98
Moderator
MJO keeps going!
MJO keeps going!
That high amp phase 7 is a beauty
@SD
This is exactly what we were talking about happening out west. It is hard to believe that it actually might play out that way. Euro isn't quite there, but it's showing some signs of hopping onboard. If this plays out, there will be more than one really legit opportunity for widespread winter weather.
This is exactly what we were talking about happening out west. It is hard to believe that it actually might play out that way. Euro isn't quite there, but it's showing some signs of hopping onboard. If this plays out, there will be more than one really legit opportunity for widespread winter weather.