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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Anyone
That looks a little like the operational on steroids.
Would you please post the other 50 members when you get a chance? TIA
That looks a little like the operational on steroids.
Would you please post the other 50 members when you get a chance? TIA
NCCWOP9077
Member
Definitely a few members with the coastal low solution.
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Thanks. So, the 12Z EPS surprisingly to me has ~25% of its members with snow most concentrated on/near the coast. I didn't expect that many and having that high a % of EPS members there is quite uncommon since snow there is pretty rare and this is the EPS, not the usually colder GEFS. This is consistent with the Myrtle Beach snow members that were posted. Interesting to say the least. Check this out @Stormsfury, @Bham 99, other CHS area members, and even @pcbjr. Also, @Shaggy and @Downeastnc.
Avalanche
Member
The Pamlico sound special
@Ollie Williams, do you have the 12Z EPS mean? TIA. Though in this case, I agree with @Arcc that the mean probably isn't as useful as looking at the individual members.
Honestly If we can get a stronger low pressure off the west coast to pump that western ridge into Canada and sharpen it/nudge it west and allow The trough/ULL more SW, it could have a very very similar look to jan 2018, and you know how that worked
MichaelJ
Member
Long way to go but this thing will likely come NW as this is the Climatology
Honestly If we can get a stronger low pressure off the west coast to pump that western ridge into Canada and sharpen it/nudge it west and allow The trough/ULL more SW, it could have a very very similar look to jan 2018, and you know how that worked
As it is now, about 25% of 12Z EPS members have a system that is somewhat similar to the other big Jan 2018 storm at least in location/track in case it were to persist and also not do the usual NW shift.
gotta be happy if your back west in the Triad to the blue ridge. We need it near Myrtle at this range if not further offshore as it’s likely to come TOO far north-west
I am glad you guys got your historic storm a couple years ago, really am. But that Jan 3rd 2018 storm haunts me to this day. I bought in so hard to that NW trend. What made it worse was 2 weeks later, we got warm nosed. If we are going to do Jan 2018 again, please let this thing at least reach Columbia.
Might not matter much, but FWIW the ICON already had a better initial trough in Canada at hour 120 vs 12z 
Here's the mean, it's not impressive, but, you can see the highest totals are along the coast.
Matches the euro nicely rn
Don’t see that happening sir with that vicious trough that’s forecasted.
Yeah, I'm certainly not expecting a 2nd once in a generation winter storm just 2 years later. Having 2 wintry events with one major and the other minor just two years apart is one thing and is rare enough. But another early Jan 2018 storm just 2 years later? The closest thing I can find to that is way back in the 1890s (1/1893 and 2/1895) and then the winter of 1851-2 had two nice ones though neither as big as 1/2018 in liquid equiv. 1976-7 also had two but neither was anywhere near 1/2018 for liquid equiv. 1985-6 also had two but with neither major.
Edit: Winter of 1799-1800 had multiple events, including the real big one.
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It’s actually possible with current trends we’re seeing today (trough trending west)
I still can’t help but think of last years whiffed coastal tho...
Cadi40
Member
I know it can be difficult sometimes especially when it comes to wintery weather but let’s please try to keep our wish casting down to a minimum.
I don’t think anyone is wishcasting, we are just analyzing the outcomes based on models.
whatalife
Moderator
500...Days 10-15 on the three major ensembles
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SnowNiner
Member
Hopefully the 12z EPS went south because it's MJO is wrong. I'll be watching the mjo pretty close. If we can get it to "wake up" and continue the pulse into 8 like many think it will continue in to, perhaps we can get western ridging to help us out. Even the GEFS still kills it in 7 probably too quickly.
Probably why the eps had that suspect look in the LR
I'd like for it to go in the circle if it's not going to 8 or 1. We sure don't need it collapsing going to 6. I'm not sure where this assumption that phase 7 is good came from either. I guess based on Webber's research it somehow manages to snow in NC somehow.
18z gfs has a similar H5 look to the 06z at hour 132, so a step back atm
Also, January at KATL within the COD phase 7 averaged 4 colder than normal 1975-2014. Outside COD phase 7 averaged only 1 BN.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If I were in Texas I'd be starting to get a little excited about January 21-22...eastward it's getting crushed so far (and isn't consolidated energy) because of that 50/50 low, and I'm a little worried that if that low moderates the cold will too.
FWIW, I’m in Elizabeth City and would applaud this solution.
Storm5
Member
18z smokes Texas
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
A lot of our king storms seem to start out with snow in Texas...it's a shame in this case that if something like this were to happen, it seems like there might be another piece of energy combined with a strong 50/50 that make it have no where to go other than Cuba...
packfan98
Moderator
The cold air looks iffy unless a surface low can get cranking.
Yeah, it is mainly cold rain. Not enough cold air. But there is a little ZR at Charlotte and nearby on 1/24 per my maps.
packfan98
Moderator
Perfect Miller A track with no cold air. Seems like we’ve been saying this for months.
Storm5
Member
Northern stream isn’t that far behind . It’s all timing as always ANd most importantly it’s post day ten .
Edit :Even with a faster northern stream and or slower southern energy temps still suck
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah it's pretty close to making something happen, but just not there this time. Still a long way to go.