WXinCanton
Member
It's weather man, it's going to do what it wants regardless. Just relax and let everything get sorted out, it ALWAYS does.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
No one should be discouraged from sharing their opinions, but I think the problem a lot of people have with you is that you speak in absolutes and "almighty authority". Even the professional meteorologists who post here don't post like that.
Storm5
Member
yeah the third system towards the weekend of the 24th would need work but its so far out and things will change so much . I mean just look at the flipping and flopping with the ensembles
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
Okay? It’s one run. It’ll change
I just call them like I see them ( i.e., what the model is literally showing) and don't like seeing that. It will change and hopefully for the better but nobody knows the future. Hopefully this is just a drunken burp.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's one run after two days of good runs, especially with the ensembles. I don't think it's a red alert.
It has changed. He said it’s warmer
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
Exactly Brick.
CFS MJO
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks great but has no support. I can’t find anything close to that.Which MJO model does the best? Avg wise?
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And we will find out in about 12 hours if it’s a burp or a gulp!
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think stage 7 was the one Webber was excited about seeing.
Jon
Member
H5 doesn’t really make sense so I don’t see a cause for concern. At the surface it’s only ~5F warmer which still puts us in RDU at climo for late jan. It being day 11+ doesn’t have me worried, model could easily pop a ridge there with 00z
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EPS has the MJO going back into the phase 6 with a deeply +EPO, flooding pacific air, it’s better than a SER but it’s definitely not a good winter storm pattern in the LR based off what it shows, I consider that something to watch, hopefully it’s a blip and not a soon to be dumpster fire part 2
Edit - MJo going to bad phase on it probably contributed to that look, and it could very well be wrong on the progression of it
Edit - MJo going to bad phase on it probably contributed to that look, and it could very well be wrong on the progression of it
Yeah...whoops. The complete -EPO fail is definitely concerning...the models have tried to take it negative a couple of times this winter and it's failed to materialize. When that continually happens it makes you pause and wonder if it's ever going to come.
Yeah, and throw that GEFS -EPO Into the mix certainly makes things more questionable
Yep. And to be fair, this isn't far from being something better, it's just going the wrong way.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Going wrong compared to when? The positive signs we have seen in just the last 48 hours?
Looking through the members, both those means are just about worthless.
Did you not read the posts above that GaWx and I literally just posted? I posted a EPS trend in the Whamby thread. I can't make it any easier.
Good point. There is a good chunk of members that are solidly colder and a good chunk that are solidly warmer.
Looking through the members:
at 288hrs: Members are everywhere. Majority looks like either +PNA or kind of zonal.
at ~330hrs: majority are +PNA and a lot are like the pattern showing next week, some kind of zonal.
at 360hrs: look above. Lots of possible snow threats looking at H5.
at 288hrs: Members are everywhere. Majority looks like either +PNA or kind of zonal.
at ~330hrs: majority are +PNA and a lot are like the pattern showing next week, some kind of zonal.
at 360hrs: look above. Lots of possible snow threats looking at H5.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yes, but I also have been reading things since Sunday, and there were a whole lot more positive and good runs of the models compared to this. One blip over 48 hours doesn't mean it's going the wrong way now. If it continues, then sure. But it's not a "trend" the wrong way.
Avalanche
Member
Time will tell.
Storm5
Member
This reminds me a lot of last years jan near miss coastal. I really hung my hat on the NW trend and got burned, may need to go back and read on how that played out. I'd hate to put all our eggs in one basket too but this could very well be our only legit chance in NC.
This in my opinion is the most important frame of the euro. Anything beyond 144hrs is really just noise. I'm always reminded of this when we track hurricanes. Where an LP ends up at 192hrs+ is anybodies guess.
At hour 168 the gulf gets squashed as the wave transfers.
For now the EPS (as seen below) supports a slightly weaker high.
How will this play out in future runs? Hopefully it'll allow for more help from the gulf, but I'm sure some other fly is waiting to jump into our ointment.
This in my opinion is the most important frame of the euro. Anything beyond 144hrs is really just noise. I'm always reminded of this when we track hurricanes. Where an LP ends up at 192hrs+ is anybodies guess.
At hour 168 the gulf gets squashed as the wave transfers.
For now the EPS (as seen below) supports a slightly weaker high.
How will this play out in future runs? Hopefully it'll allow for more help from the gulf, but I'm sure some other fly is waiting to jump into our ointment.
I got burned too, I actually went back and read that a couple months ago. We all wanted to believe so much that it was going to be a 2000 repeat.
EPS control FWIW
Wtf lol, must of been a deform band that slowed ???
Avalanche
Member
Looks like Brick and Metwanna are in business!!!
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Needs to come west some.
Avalanche
Member
According to that depiction it has!! Has to come a lot more west for Chatham Co to get anything. At least its a stones throw.
Avalanche
Member
Just sits there and pivots, i mean, not january 2000 like, but...