• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

I know I am; I'm being aggressive with these models this winter season. If they don't show solid consistency with something to my liking, I'm moving on to the next. I better refrain myself from posting further about this cause I don't want to get banned.
It's weather man, it's going to do what it wants regardless. Just relax and let everything get sorted out, it ALWAYS does.
 
I know I am; I'm being aggressive with these models this winter season. If they don't show solid consistency with something to my liking, I'm moving on to the next. I better refrain myself from posting further about this cause I don't want to get banned.

No one should be discouraged from sharing their opinions, but I think the problem a lot of people have with you is that you speak in absolutes and "almighty authority". Even the professional meteorologists who post here don't post like that.
 
The 12Z EPS then is a warmer run vs the 0Z EPS for the followup system and too warm for most for wintry it appears. Yuck. But I suspect there'd still be some wintry members for CAD regions at least

yeah the third system towards the weekend of the 24th would need work but its so far out and things will change so much . I mean just look at the flipping and flopping with the ensembles
 
12Z EPS mean finally cools back down some to a little BN on 1/28 but it is not nearly as cold as the 0Z EPS or the 12Z GEFS. ALEET, folks, and not in a good way.
Okay? It’s one run. It’ll change
 

H5 doesn’t really make sense so I don’t see a cause for concern. At the surface it’s only ~5F warmer which still puts us in RDU at climo for late jan. It being day 11+ doesn’t have me worried, model could easily pop a ridge there with 00z


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
EPS has the MJO going back into the phase 6 with a deeply +EPO, flooding pacific air, it’s better than a SER but it’s definitely not a good winter storm pattern in the LR based off what it shows, I consider that something to watch, hopefully it’s a blip and not a soon to be dumpster fire part 2
Edit - MJo going to bad phase on it probably contributed to that look, and it could very well be wrong on the progression of it
 
Yeah...whoops. The complete -EPO fail is definitely concerning...the models have tried to take it negative a couple of times this winter and it's failed to materialize. When that continually happens it makes you pause and wonder if it's ever going to come.

View attachment 30882View attachment 30883

Yeah, and throw that GEFS -EPO Into the mix certainly makes things more questionable
 
Back
Top