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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

At hour 174 and forward it appears the moisture doesn't move East out of Texas. Would this be due to the strong High?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
This could be the one for South Carolina.. I count at least 8-9 members with some type of accumulation here. Wow!
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Yeah, if we get a coastal storm or even just a NW trend but not to much than the southeast including your area would be golden. I better not get on the "MBY snow" or the mod team will take over LOL!!!
 
Coastal or not, gefs has been all over this southern track solution for days now maybe a week. When I see a consistent modeling for this with the ens, then that makes a believer out of me.
 
FB37348D-9184-4A39-B57C-633D51970893.png it sounds odd but if we could just get a little bit of a SER that would really help out with the first wave. We need a moisture feed from the gulf and the NS just shuts it off. As everyone has been saying, just back everything W some and we are money. If there’s a trend we can always count on it’s a trend for a stronger SER. I don’t think that would be a bad thing at this point.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is what I was talking about the other day...having lots of members showing something and a few showing a big dog. If you're in eastern NC, for example, you have 14 members giving you snow or having it really close to you. And you have 2 or 3 really significant or big dog events. It tells you that you'd better pay attention and that you might need to really, really pay attention. That's what you want to see. And you want to see it hold, obviously.
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Yes if the Euro shows a trend of shifting the trough west, even just a little bit, it will keep my attention
 
I imagine by Saturday the models will start to converge on a solution. Nice to still see a strong signal from the ensembles the warning shots have definitely been fired. Just remember folks DONT take every op run verbatim it can and will change the thing to look for is consistency. Well hone in on the details as we get closer in time. I can't add anything that's not already been said. We're all very fortunate for this crew a lot of good posters in here a lot I've know for almost a decade who have forgotten more than I've learned so pay attention sit back and enjoy the ride!!! Cheers my friends!!!
 
Not too bad for a mean this far out, just needs a little work but it's doable considering the upcoming large scale upper air patterns.
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One thing I’ve come to know about coastal snow storms over the years is they are somewhat immune to the NW trend in a sense they don’t run back inland. However they can, and usually do, trend closer to the coast putting the eastern Carolinas in play and really as far west as Charlotte at times.
 
I would like to point our the frozen line on the Euros 0z run vs this run. It has much more CAD in place this run. However, it was extremely shortlived as it quickly receded after this but still had frozen precip in the normal NC CAD areas.
00z
Screenshot 2020-01-14 at 1.17.17 PM.png

12z
Screenshot 2020-01-14 at 1.17.34 PM.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
One thing I’ve come to know about coastal snow storms over the years is they are somewhat immune to the NW trend in a sense they don’t run back inland. However they can, and usually do, trend closer to the coast putting the eastern Carolinas in play and really as far west as Charlotte at times.
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this is true, remember that last coastal last winter that got squashed from the strong PV lobe, im still salty over that and its in the back of my head when thinking about this system
 
I'm sorry you all; it's still not looking like there would be a widespread winter storm next week. We're definitely going to get the cold. Things are still not looking good for a winter storm development next week though.

Looking at the 12z GEFS, 500mb, this is not a good look. A massive ridge into central Canada is still showing up, this massive ridge is messing things up by a lot as well as the deep Eastern trough. The combination of this massive ridge and the deep Eastern trough will cause things to be suppressed, off shore flow of the Eastern coast. A Gulf low would be very difficult to form with this setup. If any Gulf low, it would be suppressed down to Cuba/extreme Southern Florida. If this ridge was centered further west, over the PNA region, things would have been more exciting. Something will need to change fast for a winter storm development next week. But, time is closing in for this time window and there hasn't been any solid consistency for a widespread winter storm on the OP models.

500h_anom.conus.png

A winter weather system to the west does indeed tries to develop next week, but it's going to get crushed as the ridge builds in central Canada and as the deep Eastern trough takes place. @Brent may have a quick opportunity for snowfall next week if this thing holds. Brent, if you get snow, send us some good photo's!

I'm still going ALL IN during the last week this month for a widespread southeastern winter storm to occur sometime. Using the GFS OP 500mb from today, this is what I'd like to see! Ahhh, much better!

gfs_z500a_us_51.pngPV centered over the Great Lakes, it's not digging down too deep and it's a perfectly fat "U" and there's blocking (north) all around this PV. We would score at a much greater chance with a setup like this versus what is being shown at 500mb for next week. If this pattern verifies for the last week, I would be super excited!
 
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WxWatch said:
I'm sorry you all; it's still not looking like there would be a widespread winter storm next week. We're definitely going to get the cold. Things are still not looking good for a winter storm development next week though.

Looking at the 12z GEFS, 500mb, this is not a good look. A massive ridge into central Canada is still showing up, this massive ridge is messing things up by a lot as well as the deep Eastern trough. The combination of this massive ridge and the deep Eastern trough will cause things to be suppressed, off shore flow of the Eastern coast. A Gulf low would be very difficult to form with this setup. If any Gulf low, it would be suppressed down to Cuba/extreme Southern Florida. If this ridge was centered further west, over the PNA region, things would have been more exciting. Something will need to change fast for a winter storm development next week. But, time is closing in for this time window and there hasn't been any solid consistency for a widespread winter storm on the OP models.

View attachment 30847

A winter weather system to the west does indeed tries to develop next week, but it's going to get crushed as the ridge builds in central Canada and as the deep Eastern trough takes place. @Brent may have a quick opportunity for snowfall next week if this thing holds. Brent, if you get snow, send us some good photo's!

I'm still going ALL IN during the last week this month for a widespread southeastern winter storm to occur sometime. Using the GFS OP 500mb from today, this is what I'd like to see! Ahhh, much better!

View attachment 30852PV centered over the Great Lakes, it's not digging down too deep and it's a perfectly fat upside down "U" and there's blocking (north) all around this PV. We would score at a much greater chance with a setup like this versus what is being shown at 500mb for next week. If this pattern verifies for the last week, I would be super excited!
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Again as so many others have said, that ridge is not the problem. You're buying into something that's really far out and discounting the thing much closer just because of one feature you believe is a problem when in reality it's helping us out. It might not mean a snowstorm for you, but for people in the Eastern carolinas it might.
 
Wow on how close the 12Z Doc is to a very rare/historic coastal snow!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Again as so many others have said, that ridge is not the problem. You're buying into something that's really far out and discounting the thing much closer just because of one feature you believe is a problem when in reality it's helping us out. It might not mean a snowstorm for you, but for people in the Eastern carolinas it might.
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this thing in my opinion could still go back all the way to the foothills of NC, the trends have been in chunks with the trough digging on the GFS and euro, theres also that shot at ULL snow if the coastal never gets going
 
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