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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

I think until we really get out of MJO bad phases, we could see a big arctic high or 2 push down enough low level cold to produce something like the 12z GFS shows. Not saying its going to happen, but like Webb said....we don't live at H5, and winter can definitely happen without and ideal look at H5.
 
Stormdoc said:
View attachment 29908
FWIW Canadian has a similar set up
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From what I saw some of the GEFS members had the same setup as well. I couldn't look too much into the members as the website I use to see individual members is down for maintenance. But looking at the snowfall mean it showed snow originating from the same area in Texas and moving east across the SE. This system should be an interesting one to keep an eye on the next few days as models keep trying to sort out the pattern.
 
Webberweather53 said:
"Omg, this pattern sucks, winter cancel! Look at that big SE ridge!!"

View attachment 29903


This GFS run is another reminder to everyone that we don't live at 500mb. This kind of look w/ a deep Newfoundland vortex favors cold air damming if the right s/w comes along. It's getting into fantasyland yes, but this is a very obvious reminder that -PNA doesn't automatically = crappy pattern in the SE US, you really have to look deeper than that because a huge 50-50 low squelches the idea of a consistent torch despite the big ridge at 500mb.

View attachment 29904
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A little GEFS support, more or less

edit: sure would be nice to see the SER disappear though

1578419486872.png
 
metwannabe said:
A little GEFS support, more or less

edit: sure would be nice to see the SER disappear though

View attachment 29909
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Verbatim that’s still not a warm pattern here, cold advection on the backside of that Atlantic Canada trough will put big surface highs into New England and the Lakes, encouraging cold air damming.
 
Don't give up on this for CAD regions. Some major ZRs occurred in ATL when there was little or no SN or IP the entire winter and DJF averaged AN, including two of the warmest winters on record; 5 of 7 of these in late Jan:

- 1/30/1882: All 3 months very warm making it one of warmest winters on record. So, this ZR was an island within a sea of warmth.
- 1/30-1/1949: AN Dec; very warm Jan & Feb. One of warmest winters on record. So, this ZR also was an island within a sea of warmth.
- 12/16/1932: AN Dec & Jan; N Feb
- 12/25/1943: N Dec & Jan; mild Feb
- 1/22-23/2000 & 1/28-30/2000: AN Dec; N Jan; mild Feb
- 1/28-9/2005: N Dec; AN Jan & Feb
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Verbatim that’s still not a warm pattern here, cold advection on the backside of that Atlantic Canada trough will put big surface highs into New England and the Lakes, encouraging cold air damming.
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Agreed, it's why I said there was some gefs support, my edit was basically I'd just feel better if I didn't have to keep looking at that SER... Lol
 
1578421640510.png

I don't know. GEFS is adamant the Aleutian ridge goes nowhere. Looks stronger this run too. If true, I haven't seen an eastern ridge hang tough this long in a while. Why can't an eastern trough be that stable? Combine this with the mjo probably circling back....:confused: Sad.
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed, it's why I said there was some gefs support, my edit was basically I'd just feel better if I didn't have to keep looking at that SER... Lol
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I understand lol but the good CAD events around here usually have a ridge parked right over us at 500mb. This mid-level ridge in concert w/ an Atlantic Canada trough means that there's cold air advection in the low-levels being overrun by a warmer, mid-level air mass. The ridge being there at 500mb actually makes the CAD stronger because it strengthens the inversion across the top of the CAD dome.

North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png

North America NCEPR1 MSLPa NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
 
SnowNiner said:
View attachment 29914

I don't know. GEFS is adamant the Aleutian ridge goes nowhere. Looks stronger this run too. If true, I haven't seen an eastern ridge hang tough this long in a while. Why can't an eastern trough be that stable? Combine this with the mjo probably circling back....:confused: Sad.
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The GEFS has been very adamant on a ridge over the Aleutians in the extended and until this most recent run, it was continually backing away from it. This model has a bias to overamplify anticyclonic wave breaks in the North-Northeast Pacific storm track so I'd be weary of the placement & amplitude of said ridge even though the tropical forcing would support it at least thru the 20th.

As for the MJO returning to the Maritime Continent, I'm not really buying it at least that quickly anyways. I think people need to remind themselves that the RMM MJO index only explains a third of the total subseasonal variance in OLR, U200, & U850, the other 67% is not captured in this index thus it's not an end-all be-all.
 
GaWx said:
Don't give up on this for CAD regions. Some major ZRs occurred in ATL when there was little or no SN or IP the entire winter and DJF averaged AN, including two of the warmest winters on record; 5 of 7 of these in late Jan:

- 1/30/1882: All 3 months very warm making it one of warmest winters on record. So, this ZR was an island within a sea of warmth.
- 1/30-1/1949: AN Dec; very warm Jan & Feb. One of warmest winters on record. So, this ZR also was an island within a sea of warmth.
- 12/16/1932: AN Dec & Jan; N Feb
- 12/25/1943: N Dec & Jan; mild Feb
- 1/22-23/2000 & 1/28-30/2000: AN Dec; N Jan; mild Feb
- 1/28-9/2005: N Dec; AN Jan & Feb
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I should also add still another major late Jan SE ZR within an otherwise mild winter: the one of 1/24-26/1922 that gave CHS/SAV an extremely rare major ZR (one of even near that magnitude hasn't been seen since in SAV) and that later lead to big snows NC and into the NE US (Knickerbocker Storm tragedy).
 
GaWx said:
I should also add still another major late Jan SE ZR within an otherwise mild winter: the one of 1/24-26/1922 that gave CHS/SAV an extremely rare major ZR (one of even near that magnitude hasn't been seen since in SAV) and that later lead to big snows NC and into the NE US (Knickerbocker Storm tragedy).
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This storm is also where the legend of Roxboro was born.
Three. Feet. of. Snow.

Wtf.

That 9.4" in Raleigh seems awesome until you realize Durham nearly got double that. Smdh, can't even do anything right even in the good ol days.
January 27-28 1922 NC Snow map.png
 
Well, it's different from 0z and 12z yesterday...I'll give it that.

gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png
 
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