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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Looks like the GEFS is going to kick the EPS butt in the MJO forecast. Moved to higher amp ph7 and collapse into COD. Looking at the EPS chi200 from the 0z run it looks like it wants to start something back up in ph6-7...albeit weakly. I saw Mike V's tweet that SnowNiner posted in the Whamby thread about the MJO collapse, which GEFS/EPS agree on. What the EPS is showing below looks pretty good to me, better than a high amp drag race around 8-1-2 back to our beloved warm phases.

Edit: I am definitely a noob when it comes to the MJO...hopefully Webber/GaWx/Jon pipe in if they disagree.


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eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2020011400_MEAN.png
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
View attachment 30814member 15 is juiced up
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Hmm, If I'm being honest the ensemble means are still not very impressive to me. Way too many blank members. If I had to guess, the closer we get to the time the TPV drifts back to our side of the globe the end of the month, the higher the mean snow numbers will go up. Probably next week.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Something like that is definitely headed for glory. With the energy coming down in the right place as shown, it would have the potential to phase perfectly and produce a major storm.
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Yeah. Both pieces were already starting to interact over north central TX..still looked a little squished but this is what needs to happen to take the late bloomer solution off the table 730C4092-1172-4B3D-8742-F2E79192ED1B.gif
 
This setup reminds me of January 2011. Arctic high comes down from Canada, sets up over the Ohio Valley which provides the cold air source. This also creates a boundary in the northern gulf which pops a weak low pressure.

Ofc, this high was only a 1030-1032 high.

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LovingGulfLows said:
This setup reminds me of January 2011. Arctic high comes down from Canada, sets up over the Ohio Valley which provides the cold air source. This also creates a boundary in the northern gulf which pops a weak low pressure.

Ofc, this high was only a 1030-1032 high.

image006.gif


image007.gif
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I’d be all in for a repeat of that one. Like you said though that was a weak wave, which is ideal for those in the deeper parts of the south, and I haven’t seen a weak wave come through here in 3 months. They’re all juiced up
 
LovingGulfLows said:
This setup reminds me of January 2011. Arctic high comes down from Canada, sets up over the Ohio Valley which provides the cold air source. This also creates a boundary in the northern gulf which pops a weak low pressure.

Ofc, this high was only a 1030-1032 high.

image006.gif


image007.gif
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I wonder does anybody have the snow maps from that storm
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I wonder does anybody have the snow maps from that storm
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There are snow amounts for invidivual states(widespread amounts of 4-10 inches occured in Northern GA).

Here's a satellite view of the areas that had snowcover on January 11th, 2011.

image059.jpg


I'm not saying this storm will be exactly like that one...it just reminds me of this storm.
 
Gfs starting to show that little clipper entity some of its ensembles have been showing ... another different scenario about to pan out this run I believe
 
wow said:
THis is a nice look at 180. It's going to blow up with anticipated phasing event. Could suppress it too much this run but at this stage I still like the looks of it all.

N67FDBo.png
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Agreed, the low over NE just needs to lift out more, it's to suppressive. We are usually gnashing our teeth as these lows are to quick to lift out. The trailing wave in TX does looks nice. And more to come.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-9694400.png
 
Kinda wonder if that third piece of energy that has a fair bit of convection that's showing up in the gulf not interacting with the main piece is hurting us here convection wise. That major convection is now diving toward Cuba lol (what else is new in tracking in the winter?).

I'd love to throw my computer by the way. Wanted to interact earlier but I can't even copy paste maps without my computer freezing.

Edit: Nevermind, just saw why this is so suppressed in posts above.
 
Second storm could be colder this run .. again at this point in the model everything is effected by the 1st storm so take with a grain of salt as we have no concrete idea on what the 1st storm would do but if it were to be suppressed like that this is how the second storm would pan out
 
KyloG said:
Agreed, the low over NE just needs to lift out more, it's to suppressive. We are usually gnashing our teeth as these lows are to quick to lift out. The trailing wave in TX does looks nice. And more to come.

View attachment 30826
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Isn't that trough too far east? I'd think we need a more w/sw h5 flow to get our moisture to come out of the gulf.
 
packfan98 said:
Don't sleep on that Low off the SE coast. It's been trending closer with a much better trough axis. This is the first chance that some of the ensembles have been keying on.
View attachment 30825
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this is the one I have my eye on. This is an overlay of the last 3 gfs runs.
Blue 00z
Green 06z
Yellow 12z

pretty obvious where this may end up.
2BA24018-BC0D-4349-8D97-A83F425A4CA2.jpeg
 
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