Here's the 3 run trend of the GEFS near the end of the run. 0z actually looks a lot better than 18z wrt SER and not just the overall Aleutian Low/NW US trough/SER wave pattern.
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
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This EPS run is even better than yesterday's upbeat suites.
Clearly, winter is over.
Clearly, winter is over.
Snippet from James spann
NO SIGN OF ARCTIC AIR FOR ALABAMA FOR A FEW WEEKS: The pattern will continue to favor below average temperatures for the western and northern states, while the eastern U.S. will be fairly mild through mid-January. But remember, cold weather fans, winter is just getting started and the pattern will flip at some point
NO SIGN OF ARCTIC AIR FOR ALABAMA FOR A FEW WEEKS: The pattern will continue to favor below average temperatures for the western and northern states, while the eastern U.S. will be fairly mild through mid-January. But remember, cold weather fans, winter is just getting started and the pattern will flip at some point
Looking through the members, some of them could be not only cold, but really cold.
Welp...cue the fail music.
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We are about to find ourselves in a pretty familiar position in mid-late month. Not exactly a warm or "winter is over" look either.
Webb vs judah on tweeter
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Of course right back to the warm phases. That's why I don't buy a pattern change. Maybe a transient window while in the COD.
Well damn GAWX. Looks like our biggest fear is coming to life. I saw that loop look a few weeks ago.
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Awesome! Looks like we'll have another 5-10 day window where the pattern is meh before it turns right back into a turd sandwich!
The weaker amplitude signal at the end is mainly due to dispersion, there's definitely a predictability barrier w/ the MJO when it's initialized over the Maritime Continent but it wouldn't surprise me if it returned yet again in February.
If I recall correctly from you, when forecasting from Maritime the Euro tends to be too progressive and not amplified enough and the GEFS kind of the opposite. If I have that right, what are the implications as regards this latest forecast? Not pretty I assume.
The MJO exhibits the most unpredictability when its initialized near or over the Maritime Continent, the EPS is slightly biased towards the Maritime Continent and usually too weak in the West Pac while the opposite is often true for the GEFS. A compromise between the two seems more realistic and the abating +IOD and emergent modoki NINO + cold west Pac has a lot to do w/ the return of convection and the MJO to the Maritime Continent. I think this summary from the CPC does a pretty good job here detailing everything and I agree that the MJO may be overexaggerated due to this low frequency shift that's starting to transpire.
I see it differently. I see a mean into Cape Canaveral with members from Miami to Cape Hatteras.
If u look at this and think it’s going back into the warm phases .. you clearly don’t know what model consensus is ?? this tells me the model doesn’t know wtf is going to happen past like 7-10 days