I’m guessing those extremely low heights trapped north of Russia and not spilling into the east coast are a necessary evil if we want to see this +PNA develop? Or would this all be a result of the MJO progressing into the Western Pacific?
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a great example of how you can have 2 identical RMM MJO forecasts, yet still have significantly different -VP200 configurations. This is largely because RMM doesn't handle the MJO quite as effectively in the Western Hemisphere & it doesn't explain but a fraction (~33%) of the total variability, and is comprised of several variables, of which differences in one or a few of them are effectively masked out. RMM also doesn't explicitly include VP200 and doesn't capture western hemisphere MJO events quite as well.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Kamchatka Peninsula/NE Russia/Okhtosk trough is a function of both the MJO moving into the Western Pacific (which releases latent heating into the mid-latitude jet and results in a poleward shift of the subtropical high) and "intrinsic, internal" variability in the storm track. As the old saying goes, there is more than one way to skin a cat, you don't always need a huge Aleutian low to generate +PNA, having a vortex over NE Russia (+WPO) in the right place at the right time of the year w/ the proper initial state in the NP storm track is another way to create one. Obviously, the further you get from the west coast and SE US, the more dispersion matters, which tends to break down the teleconnectivity of these relationships.
Lots of support for a +PNA by the 19th on the EPS members.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If only it was actually cold.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Seasonal snowfall totals so far across the US. With exception to a few select folks in northern MS & southern Arkansas, this winter has been atrociously bad for the board thus far. Most of us will go into halftime (late January) without any points on the board.
SnowNiner
Member
I don't know man, I'm glad that if it's one long range ensemble suite that shows us potentially leaving a shutout pattern it's the EPS. But whether or not it actually comes to fruition and for how long are huge leaps of faith for me at this point. We all know that, so I guess I just say that to say when in doubt I go with persistence until the models scream otherwise. Here's hoping the long range EPS +PNA is the first step out of the dungeon.
I am a bit surprised at how long the wet pattern is lasting. If it ever manages to snow I would think western NC would be dealing with a massive river flooding pattern well into spring. No sustained cold but plenty of moisture would lead to rapid snowmelt combined with these heavy rain events. The current lack of snow may be a good thing for those living in flood prone areas.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The CFSv2 goes full ------ w/ the mother of all -NAOs developing ~Jan 20th. Glwt.
Haven’t seen the animation but let me guess it was a big ol wavebreak with that big 50/50
I think what Webber has basically been saying to us (correct me if I’m wrong Webber) is that why are we trusting the untrustworthy models in the weather community we need to trust the one model that’s been consistently trustworthy in its forecasts which would be the euro and its ensemble members .. and if we trust the truth worthy model than we have a lot to be happy about for late January and into February
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah it only took a couple monster cyclonic wave breaks just east of Atlantic Canada and we were off & running with superweeniehut general -NAO
And it still looks warm in the SE.
Six Mile Wx
Member
pcbjr
Member
Noticed that and thought it was an internet connection issue ... stuck cache or something ... but not ... go figure ...
It takes a bit for the effects of such -NAO to transverse into the weather here in the south East ... if u keep looking at the model as it goes out you will what this type of pattern produces there was about three major back to back major winter storms for the southeast after this -NAO
I like the -NAO signal. Hopefully that other stuff will work out. Getting the NAO is the hard part.Noticed that and thought it was an internet connection issue ... stuck cache or something ... but not ... go figure ...
Don’t sweat the details. If you build it, they will come. You have to smell the ridge to get the trough.
Extrapolating, all three look ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS weeklies are pretty good from ~Jan 25th to Feb 5th, then go back to looking like a steamy turd sandwich by mid February.