Six Mile Wx
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
You kind of need the ridge to be amplified in this particular case. A flatter ridge and its certainly flat and out to sea. A steeper ridge allows you to almost get into an omega block look. This would be what causes the flow along the SE coast to veer more out of the south, increase divergence and get the surface low closer to the coast.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Six Mile Wx
Member
I agree with what you're getting at. Western blocking can be good, but it also can be bad depending of the nature of the ridge. I would rather see ridging along the western coast/into the Rockies that's not buckling northward too step and not pushing southeast or east. A ridge that's buckles too much could cause suppression down stream over our area. I also don't like how this ridge is causing the trough to dive very steep.
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Six Mile Wx
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Thanks for posting. How does this compare to 12z?
Six Mile Wx
Member
18z
12z
12z
Six Mile Wx
Member
Yeah, don't look to good for NC! How about Ice does it include ice on them maps? Thanks for posting!
Six Mile Wx
Member
There’s no separate parameter for sleet and freezing rain on the EPS.
Is there a way you could find a mslp (high/low pressure map to see if CAD got stronger vs previous runs? You don’t have to but Thanks if you do
Easy to see why that weekend event is coming back, stronger trough associated with the 50/50 low helps out with more low level CAA, and the trough in the NE has definitely been adjusting slightly south each run, which makes a pretty decent difference, likely why the high has been trending stronger 
on the gefs you can definitely see that trend of a stronger HP/CAD 
on the gefs you can definitely see that trend of a stronger HP/CAD 
ATLwxfan
Member
Problem with the CAD event is that it looks like it just gets washed out. Could always trend to a stronger wedge I suppose.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah with that storm track it’s not gonna b nothing crazy, initial snow/sleet/ZR to rain but CAD areas along the escarpment have a better shot as always
Nomanslandva
Member
00z first shot, ICON went the wrong way for weekend ice.
Edit: wedge is there east of the mountains just less precip east.
Edit: wedge is there east of the mountains just less precip east.
Less confluence
Our Friday night system coming into view should be getting well sampled. 
0z ICON has pockets of Wilkes/Surry at or below 32 for the entire event. Something to watch for sure if CAD ticks another degree cooler over the next four days.
Nomanslandva
Member
Yea, it was not as cold/deep but it held longer.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
With the ICON showing the wedge and being below freezing, I am really paying attention. The ICON is usually pretty warm with surface temps.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Pretty similar GFS run so far. Mixed bag breaking out in WNC at 102.
Avalanche
Member
Still have a few more tictoks of the clock for things to be more favorable. Wish there was bigger potential here. Oh well.
Avalanche
Member
Those isobars!!!
Didn’t really trend colder it’s just there. 32/33 event. GFS agrees with ICON on northern NC foothills being at or below freezing longest. Plenty of time for this to go either way but at this point I wouldn’t expect anything major.
Little to no sleet/snow mix accum to a light glaze of ZR would be worst case scenario for northern NC imo.
Just wanted to point out the hp on the GFS at hr 144 is 6mb higher than the previous run. Will be interesting to see what implications this has.
Major oof at that 1050..would be shocked if anything comes to fruition here
Also the icon at the end of its run definitely looked interesting for storm number 2
Yes. Trough is also a little further west with some good energy coming down. This will either be suppressed again or could get interesting
Where’s our Louisiana posters at temps in low to mid 30s with mixed precip Monday on gfs
This could have different implications for different waves wouldn’t be so disappointed with all this cold air getting into place
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'm half paying attention due to the national championship but the GFS looks like it's going to try for something different. Looks like some good energy out west behind the strung out wave we've seen that I haven't seen until this run.
Think we going to have a storm. Winter Storm in Texas at 186. 
Ridge that WXWATCH was referring too looks significantly different than the run 6 HOURS ago ... this is why u can’t write anything off yet
You’re right. Consider the table to be set if that 1050 is to be believed. And quite honestly it wouldn’t even take one that strong
Jesus colder this run snowshoe is gonna go below zero
Incoming!!! 195