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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Here’s the map I was referencing. I should have been more specific. Not sure this is good for anybody. But you’re right, plenty of time
Thor
Member
Certainly evidence of some blocking showing up and its not in the super long term
It's has been infuriating that the NAO flipped to positive exactly Dec 1st and hasn't looked back. But atleast there is some reason for optimism now.
Sure do like this look reminds me of the storm last year that never quite made it to land. This has a better chance to come inland.
It's has been infuriating that the NAO flipped to positive exactly Dec 1st and hasn't looked back. But atleast there is some reason for optimism now.
Sure do like this look reminds me of the storm last year that never quite made it to land. This has a better chance to come inland.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Hey @KyloG can you post one for Tuscaloosa
MichaelJ
Member
The latest runs of the GEFS and the CFSV2 both show the MJO moving heavily from 7 into 8 and a few members show it progressing into 1. I will feel a lot more confident if the ECMWF/EPS follows suit. Regardless, it seems we will have a shot of BN cold and possibly wintry weather for up to a 30 day period
CFS mjo looks really good
Stormlover
Member
haven't seen both of the 6-10 and 8-14 look like this in a long time 
The bleaklies this run aren't bad from late January through the 10th of February.
Anybody have the EPS snowfall map?
pcbjr
Member
2 days in a row; 1 without human input and 1 with; let's see if we get a trend ...
Did the snow mean increased from 0z?
Also what are the probabilities of an Inch of snow ?
SnowNiner
Member
That looks really good, thanks! Perhaps it's starting to see the high amp 7/8 in the long term; trying to pop an Aleutian low and alaskan ridge finally. I like the split flow signature showing up. Man, if we could just get that within 7-10.
I feel like I'm on a treadmill chasing a carrot!
SnowNiner
Member
Curious, I would have expected a better mean coverage with such a nice h5 setup long term.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Interesting... 
Check out the icon has a full blown ice storm for NC ... like I’ve been saying for a while now watch out for this threat as these types of systems like to sneak up on us
Watch it. Something big is lurking in the grass of some of the EPS members around the 25th.
NoSnowATL
Member
I agree, NC needs to watch this and hopefully that south trends continues for you guys. It will take a little more for SC and GA besides the mountain areas.
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nice totals across NC
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep. If you look at the overall trend, the temps and DPs have decreased dramatically and the high in the NE has slid south and intensified. Any further and areas over here could see some too. Here's a frame when the precip hits nc by the way. Last 2 runs its shifted the entire length of the state.
The pattern change is definitely within day 7-8 now and hopefully we see a legit threat show up soon. Anytime between day 8-15 something could happen.
Now I feel like my 25 bucks was wasted......lol it does beat tidbits if your trying to learn and wanna see the details.
And this first system (possible insitu CAD event) will have BIG implications for our future systems we are trying to track .. this is why u can never start predicting a future event if u have large scale events you have yet to get past yet
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Definitely a south trend on that Friday night storm. This one might have a surprise in store for some of the cad areas. Interesting for sure.
U can’t make a statment like this without getting us in on what ur seeing COME ONNN show the fellow weenies
Cold press has let up this run. Should be less suppressed
It’s too warm verbatim but meet EPS member 35. While this is on the more extreme side, many members have the possibility with the west coast trough pumping and the eastern trough bearing down.
Attachments
Western ridge taller and hanging back just a hair at 180...
Late bloomer off the coast..similar to Euro
Not really a coastal..late bloomer shooting due east NE..not a bad run
Ilovesnow28
Member
Guys aren't we long over do for another storm of the century from back in 93? Just seems like one of these models is going to catch us off guard soon especially with the pattern change around the end of the month
That looks good at this range. I’m worried we are more likely going to sweat the NW trend than suppression!
Storm5
Member
Two systems to track next week. Can’t ask for much more this far out
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GFS moving the direction you would hope. Elongating that ridge and sending it westward 
Yeah, it appears the period around 1/21-2 could get interesting for some. Per model biases if that system were to persist on the GFS, it would likely come closer to the coast with later runs. Imo if anything, it may end up trending too close to the coast or even inland and be too warm for most.
Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the spectrum, KSAV today had a 2nd straight record high of 82. Even more impressive, the low so far today has been way up at 69. IF that holds thru midnight, it would become the new record warmest low for all of January and Feb and would tie the record warmest low for any of JFM! Just yesterday, they tied the Jan record of 68 and they had 67 two days ago, which was a record for the date. This warm stretch certainly hasn’t disappointed warm lovers!