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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

10-12 days suggest bonified Blue Norther' for Texas. I got hit by one in the 90's. It was 72 when I left my motel for our meeting. 38 when I walked back....

00Z-20200106_GFSUS_prec_ptype-228-255-10-100.gif
 
4th run in a row
gfs_asnow_seus_47.png
 
Low/mid 80’s in south beach, below freezing in the NW panhandle..hell of a front being depicted D364C3A0-EE95-4FA3-AD95-59DB2991674A.png
 
Question for anybody (Webber??); so the PNA, NAO, and AO look horrible for the next couple of weeks. I remember a few years back where they were not good but the EPO was negative. The models constantly showed a warm solution only to go colder as we moved forwards in time. As far as we knew at the time the models did not calculate the EPO effects correctly. Is that still an issue (or was this ever an issue)?

It looks like the EPO will go negative in the short term:
ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Still on a Island with no support for IP/ZR/SN that far south, altho fwiw some gefs members show mountains getting some snow and even some other parts of the upper SE getting light snow around that time with the front View attachment 29796
Click to expand...
Yeah I’m not even sure what that model is doing is even feasible. Looks really sketchy just scrolling through precip maps
 
Will be interesting to see how this unfolds. WIth the GEFS/EPS divergent MJO forecast the pattern in the extended starts to diverge. Not sure who we should be rooting for either. EPS clearly weakens the GOA ridge but GEFS keeps it going.


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9564800.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9564800.png




gfs-ens_chi200Mean_global_9.pngeps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2020010600_MEAN_360.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Low/mid 80’s in south beach, below freezing in the NW panhandle..hell of a front being depicted View attachment 29797
Click to expand...
Certainly looks like a massive cold front. The GFS has showed it for several runs in a row now (which certainly doesn't mean much). Would be wild if we had this thing sweep through and it shift the pattern.
 
Robert West said:
Certainly looks like a massive cold front. The GFS has showed it for several runs in a row now (which certainly doesn't mean much). Would be wild if we had this thing sweep through and it shift the pattern.
Click to expand...
It would be nice if we could swing a big front through changing our current pattern, unfortunately it’s 10+ days away so we have to assume it’s just just dead wrong. But that doesn’t make it any less fun to look at
 
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