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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Arcc said:
Every year the GL low is blamed for killing snow events and just about every year that myth has to be killed and by the next winter it has risen from the grave again.
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lol I would generally agree. But it clearly ran interference at least on that run. Just a model run though. I needed something to dissect
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
In reality you should be biting at ensembles and nibbling at operationals
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I guess but this aint my first rodeo as vern gosdin might say........Yeah its nice to see some big dogs in the ensembles but theres hardly a trace on the others you want to see a bigger spread imo to support this senerio. It was just a few weeks ago we had a system show up and slowly faded away as we got closer. All the ensembles are telling me is theres an opportunity during that time frame. Get some consistent op support by this weekend and i think were golden time will tell.
 
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Is it just me or would this be very interesting if you could only manage to shift the ridge west some 200-300 miles? Based off past chatter, that's why I'm thinking this.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
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Is it just me or would this be very interesting if you could only manage to shift the ridge west some 200-300 miles? Based off past chatter, that's why I'm thinking this.
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Verbatim, that's close, wouldn't take much to produce a winter storm. Hopefully some EPS members show an event.
 
I wouldn't completely wipe away next week. Plenty of ensemble support for a couple storms next week. Still a lot to nail down. I wouldn't "throw out" any threat until this Thursday-Friday once things are more consistent. For now the storm signals are there and we have cold to work with. We haven't said that for a while.

We take this look at 200 hrs any day of the week.

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UPDATE: Did I mention its COLD????

I rarely "sound the alarm".... but wow this look....


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GeorgiaGirl said:
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Is it just me or would this be very interesting if you could only manage to shift the ridge west some 200-300 miles? Based off past chatter, that's why I'm thinking this.
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I agree. It looks to try and phase too late in the game due to position, but if that were much further west, we'd see a massive storm. Ensembles could be nice.
 
So close... Imagine that have phased down in the Gulf.
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whatalife said:
Anyone throwing out the potential of a winter storm happening next week may regret it. Euro is very close to making some in the SE very happy.


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I think us I-20 folks from Alabama west sees nothing while areas east and North of us do... I pray I regret it so that way it snows here
 
SD said:
If that euro run didn't give you that feeling then you are dead to me

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Coastals just don’t do it for me..but plenty of time for an earlier phase so I’m not too upset about it
 
whatalife said:
Anyone throwing out the potential of a winter storm happening next week may regret it. Euro is very close to making some in the SE very happy.


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It always happens when the major mets deny it lol. Seeing all the major models with something is a big flag for something. We just don't know where and for whom it will be yet, but something's coming.
 
The Euro is pretty darn cold too, thankful because of a bug I saw last night and I just heard something buzzing outside (window's open since it's comfortable outside). Need a good snap to halt the bugs at a minimum...just hopefully anything that wants to bloom is only in the early stages where they can survive cold unless it's crazy.
 
WxWatch said:
I highly doubt there would be a winter storm during the first cold surge next week. Time is closing in now, and there hasn't been any solid consistency of a winter storm on the GFS or the Euro. I'm officially writing off a significant winter storm for next week. And honestly, I'm so glad I did not fall for all the "noise" from the ensembles. If the ensembles showed that kind of snow like we've been seeing in a 5-7 day window instead, I'd take it more serious. There needs to be time for things to "adjust" within the pattern if that makes sense. We would have a better chance at scoring a winter storm during transitions from moderation of temps to cold surges, not soon as a strong cold surge takes place. However, sometimes we do get lucky and score a winter storm as soon as a cold surge takes place. I'm just going with what normally ends up happening instead of following a "fine line."

Looking at today's 12z GFS 500mb, this does not look good for winter storm development next week if you ask me if this 500mb pattern holds true. Massive ridge to the north with a strong high pushing south from Canada. We'll have the cold, but as I've been saying, the southern branch will most likely become less active and suppressed during the first cold surge. There could be a chance of minor frozen precipitation with that system on the 24th at the onset. The high pressure rushes east before that system gets kicked out. That is not ideal for a massive widespread winter storm, for CAD, yes. I have a good feeling for the last week this month for a winter storm. So, I'm going all IN for the last week.

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I’m sorry if I’m coming off as rude but this is just absolutely ridiculous of you to say. You know how sporadic models can be and the models have some ensembles (and not just 1 or 2) that show legit winter weather threats for 200 hours out .. you simply cannot THIS FAR OUT call something completely off the table like you are doing in this post it’s irresponsible to say the least.. especially after this euro run?!?! It was a few tweaks away from a crazy winter storm for all of the southeast ... it’s ensembles from last night at least had more than half showing some sort of snow in the south East
 
SD said:
If that euro run didn't give you that feeling then you are dead to me

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That's a storm most of us coastal guys would love to see. Temps that cold with a little bigger western extent of precip and us guys east of I95 are in a good spot. Any earlier phase and it takes that away from us. This will be a week of highs and lows as they models start to zero in.
 
What’s exciting here is the pattern .. does every pattern have to produce a winter storm for everyone .. no... but the pattern is easily capable of producing multiple storms and that’s what to be excited about .. if you don’t get an initial storm at the beginning of a good pattern you shouldn’t feel discouraged or disappointed or “let down again” it’s the pattern that should be exciting for everyone
 
IMHO, this** EURO run is firing warning shots. It's saying the players are on the field and they are marching. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a few runs with a big storm showing up for the SE. I think the EURO was saying heads up, there is potential. NOT** saying its going to happen for sure, but I think its very possible.

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Remember last year when places like Seattle and Portland got multiple bouts of snow because of nonstop pinwheeling energy from the northwest. Our pattern is heading toward something *potentially* similar. Some may lose but some may win several times.


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Didn’t see it mentioned but pattern supports severe wx along the gulf coast and into Florida. Maybe two or more events left to go for January.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Per MA forum: EPS not enthused by D10 deal
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Well the MA forum is not the SE forum. What's bad for them may not be all bad for us. I'm looking at it right now and I see 3 types of solutions, 1 being like the Euro within 100 miles, 3 nice looking storms down in almost ideal SE storm locations, and a few way OTS. The other ones must not show any sort of low. Again, we have time.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Well the MA forum is not the SE forum. What's bad for them may not be all bad for us. I'm looking at it right now and I see 3 types of solutions, 1 being like the Euro within 100 miles, 3 nice looking storms down in almost ideal SE storm locations, and a few way OTS. The other ones must not show any sort of low. Again, we have time.
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If nothing else, it illustrates what is capable in the pattern with the right timing of shortwaves. I will be really happy if/when we get into a stable cold winter pattern. But at the end of the day, the upcoming transition period is miles better than what's going on currently. And you occasionally get to see, visually represented in model-land, what's possible. That's pretty cool.
 
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