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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Mcdowell_weather said:
It's pretty to look at but the intuitive part says wait a minute. Get some op agreement for a couple days then I'll bite right now I'm just guna nibble
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Yeah, it's not my favorite when you see like 3 random ensemble members show snow, but you don't see the main two Ops show much of anything. But we are moving into a better climo period, and it still looks like we're on the cusp of a better pattern. The 0z GEFS and GEPS looked good way out. So that continues to be encouraging. I haven't seen the EPS at the end, so I don't know how it turns out.

It would be nice to see the MJO not die in P7 and instead move around the horn. It would also make me feel MUCH better if we see the AO go negative. But we know that doesn't happen in winter anymore.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, that's a good point. We have a tendency, myself included, to drool over a big mean or an individual member that shows 2+ feet of snow. But the truth is, you want a really good spread of members showing some snow, with a couple of big ones scattered in there. That tells you that A, the pattern is really favorable for winter weather, and B, there is the possibility for more than just a run-of-the-mill car-topper.
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Agreed, the mean is good, but I like to count the total members with 2 inch plus totals for MBY. When the members get to about say 50% I know we're getting somewhere. A few big dogs are nice but if that's the only ones with snow and the rest blanks, that's not really helpful.

Out to 240, the EPS looks pretty unimpressive. Hardly any ridging out west and a trough off the east coast. Pretty flat although verbatim there's some cold in the SE.

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SnowNiner said:
Agreed, the mean is good, but I like to count the total members with 2 inch plus totals for MBY. When the members get to about say 50% I know we're getting somewhere. A few big dogs are nice but if that's the only ones with snow and the rest blanks, that's not really helpful.

Out to 240, the EPS looks pretty unimpressive. Hardly any ridging out west and a trough off the east coast. Pretty flat although verbatim there's some cold in the SE.

View attachment 30641
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Yep. That map goes along with my comment yesterday about being discouraged with the trends near D10. The good thing is, we get to look out past D10, fwiw, and things look to improve. The D10 map above is workable, at least. There are ways to snow, unlike what we're currently going through. But with the main cold core on the other side of the world and a semi-zonal flow, it's not all that impressive. But it's just one model and things evolve from there, so that's good.
 
The ensembles continue to show potential, and I think that is the key this far out. As long as they keep showing potential, then I think we really have a shot of getting a winter storm here.
 
KyloG said:
Haven't really paid attention to this day 5-6 deal but it's trended south some and even some EPS members hint at a little something to start
GEFS
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To be more specific, soundings support some sleet mixed with cold rain in NC Saturday morning. Freezing rain would be very limited to the high country. Need colder trends it’s fairly far away from a legit winter weather producer IMO.
 
The MJO looks to have peaked yesterday in phase 5 near +3.5 to +3.7, which is highest in winter in over 30 years and 2nd highest in 4/5 on record.

Latest MJO forecasts: implications?

GEFS
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EPS
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GaWx said:
The MJO looks to have peaked yesterday in phase 5 near +3.5 to +3.7, which is highest in winter in over 30 years and 2nd highest in 4/5 on record.

Latest MJO forecasts: implications?

GEFS
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EPS
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Somewhere in between the GEFS and EPS would be a good medium amp phase 7. Don't like the recurving back to the warm phases but the short-range looks promising and the long-range is definitely gonna change.
 
From Maxar this morning, the message to me continues to be that after a very warm next 5 or so days to look for a much colder pattern than that but at the same time also be very wary about the models being relentlessly too cold, especially GEFS (vs the EPS):

“Changes From Friday; Model Ranges For GWHDDs
The next 15 days are forecast to total 442.3 GWHDDs, which is lower than the 10-year normal (458.8), the 30-year normal (460.7) and the same period a year ago (478.0). Since Friday, sizable changes were made to the forecast. A warmer outlook in the 1-5 Day period resulted in a loss of –8.1 GWHDDs; although, there is concern that the East could be colder at the end of the period under high pressure. The 6-10 Day period saw colder changes, especially in the mid to late period as a round of high pressure makes its way into the U.S. Eastern Half. The period gained +9.7 GWHDDs from Friday’s outlook. The 11-15 Day period saw a mix of changes in a variable pattern, and this balances for a change from Friday of –0.4 GWHDDs for the January 13-27 period. The table at the end of this discussion highlights the period ranges. All models bring upside/colder risk to the Maxar forecast. We are warmer than models given their cold biases of late, and an example of those biases include the past weekend when all models were too cold. Overall, January is forecast to total 852 GWHDDs, ranking #10 warmest nationally among records dating back to 1950 and about 100 GWHDDs lower than the 30-year normal (952.1).”
 
GaWx said:
The MJO looks to have peaked yesterday in phase 5 near +3.5 to +3.7, which is highest in winter in over 30 years and 2nd highest in 4/5 on record.

Latest MJO forecasts: implications?

GEFS
View attachment 30646

EPS
View attachment 30648
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Just going by the latest update it looks like February won’t be wall to wall cold. The curve or loop keeps showing. Maybe another 10 day window in mid feb? We need to cash in late January or we might be in trouble.


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BirdManDoomW said:
To be more specific, soundings support some sleet mixed with cold rain in NC Saturday morning. Freezing rain would be very limited to the high country. Need colder trends it’s fairly far away from a legit winter weather producer IMO.
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ICON has been trending south too. I also noticed a good number of EPS members with something frozen into northern NC. We can hope.
 
I would rather have the GFS (MJO forecast) be more correct than the EURO. EURO isn't bad at all, but would rather see the GFS/GEFS be more correct.
 
Nomanslandva said:
ICON has been trending south too. I also noticed a good number of EPS members with something frozen into northern NC. We can hope.
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The Icon has way more CAD on Saturday too.

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Initial push of waa and a little fgen over a solid cad air...sneaky sneaky
c67cd2167ce5d162ccc0241830bbacc4.jpg


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SD said:
Initial push of waa and a little fgen over a solid cad air...sneaky sneaky
c67cd2167ce5d162ccc0241830bbacc4.jpg


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This has trended south, actually spits out a dusting along the border.... Not expecting much but we've all seen that waa and fgen start a little earlier then prog and even over perform a tad
 
Ashe, Watauga, Alleghany NC certainly already in the game for winter weather advisory for Saturday morning system. Any ice meets criteria
 
- Today, the PNA at -1.93 is the most negative for any day in over 9 years assuming this obvious error:

2019 1 9 0.348
2019 1 10 -2.051
2019 1 11 0.686

- Today's AO at +4.7 is the most positive in winter in over 3 years
- Yesterday's phase 5 MJO is the strongest in winter in over 30 years
- It only gets much better from a SE cold lover's standpoint from here (it couldn't have gotten much worse, of course).
- If the cold lovers can handle getting through this combo of indices (along with a solid +NAO and a falling but still +EPO), they should be able to handle anything. What doesn't kill someone makes that person stronger. I'd bet heavily that the combo of indices will not be this bad for the rest of our lives, including even the young folk.
 
12z GFS looks as if its going to try again with the same wave as yesterday with the afternoon runs, its just slower and there might be ridging for it to try to go north.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
12z GFS looks as if its going to try again with one of the waves, its just slower and there might be ridging for it to try to go north.
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Looks better organized and strong indicator the STJ is remaining healthy despite the freezer box dropping down. Increases the chances that if we do see a winter storm some areas could be measuring in the 1-2 feet range in this type of pattern.
 
SD said:
Initial push of waa and a little fgen over a solid cad air...sneaky sneaky
c67cd2167ce5d162ccc0241830bbacc4.jpg


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I could see that. Agreed with met...this has trended a bit south. That is a strong high that tries to anchor in.
 
I’m not a big believer in ensembles, but in this case I’ll say “Go with the ensembles” because it’s a mess
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BamWx!
In their video this morning no good news maybe 10 days to two weeks cold at best. there will be no cold air source PV going back to the other side of the globe, we chasing a ghost -EPO. It’s been 15 days away all winter he said.


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BIG FROSTY said:
BamWx!
In their video this morning no good news maybe 10 days to two weeks cold at best. there will be no cold air source PV going back to the other side of the globe, we chasing a ghost -EPO. It’s been 15 days away all winter he said.


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Basically my thoughts. No prolonged favorable pattern. We’ve got to make this brief period count imo
 
My guess from earlier 500 mb maps on this run is that the random ridge in the middle of the US trapped some of the energy. But the GFS is taking a while to load it and my computer is freezing too much so I can't just look in detail right now.

This run may've been pretty good if the energy didn't hold back for so long, by the time it's moving the high has decayed and its not as cold. What a shame with where the LP is positioned.

Edit: or was positioned because I guess that ridge lets the LP come north.

Edit2: GFS decides to jump the low pressure around actually. Maybe having convection problems...
 
I think there is multiple shots of cold, and multiple chances in this pattern. Its going to be very difficult for ANY model, and even ENS to see whats up in the mid to long range. It does appear we will have a lot of energy flying around. Could that make the PAC a mess.....YES, but could also take some good timing (when doesn't it) and we have a big winter storm. Either way, The mid to longer range looks NOTHING like the crap we are in right now.
 
Something looks off with GFS, heavy convection everywhere both sides of the Apps. Hr264
 
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