• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

superjames1992 said:
Do you by chance know how it looks further east? I fear it may be too warm in the BL out this way. I guess it's time I re-up my subscriptions. This is looking somewhat promising for the foothills and NW Piedmont, and obviously S VA.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately you get major drop offs as you go further East. RDU for example has 1 member
954fd61ecca15048774c08db8650802e.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I enjoy following the extremes of indices, even those not desirable. The first image below shows the GEFS predicting close to a -2 PNA for 1/14. How rare would that be in DJF? Very. Ignoring what looks like an erroneous -2 on 1/10/2019, there has been only one period of sub -2 PNA during DJF the last 30 years: 12/20-1/2010! So while we have one of the strongest winter phase 4/5 MJO on record, we will have one of the strongest winter -PNAs on record along with about a +3 AO (see below) and a +NAO (see below)! It doesn’t get much worse than that combo for SE cold lovers. It’s too bad we don’t prefer warmth because this is a literal jackpot of indices for that as I’d bet we won’t see another day in our lifetimes of this bad a combo (this could easily be a one in several hundred year worst combo of indices!!);

455A992C-8105-4343-AB60-F96602BFAB63.gif3B0C8F47-D20B-4DB5-BD3F-4693A5BCC8FA.gif22D1747E-3980-4BC2-B5AA-01EAD465878F.gif
 
Last edited:
Ollie Williams said:
interesting. I wonder what algorithm is better. I'm going with the less snowy one, but that makes me feel better.
Click to expand...
Well, that decides WeatherModels.com vs. WeatherBell for me. I like more modeled snow. Haha.

As for which one is actually more accurate, it's never a bad idea to go with the one that shows the least snow, haha, but I do think models sometimes overplay warm BL temps.
 
Congrats to KATL, which had its first freeze sine 12/19 with its 32 this morning! Also, this means that the worst they could do for coldest of the month is tied with 1937's 32 for the warmest coldest Jan low on record (back to 1879). So, we can rest easy that Jan of 2020 will not set a new record warmest coldest even if it were to stay mild late month. Yay, this is cause to celebrate!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest Euro seasonal for February:

I really hope this verifies.


View attachment 29740

View attachment 29741


View attachment 29742


The z500 forecast from the Euro looks like a blend of February 1995, 2003, & 2015, all of which were weak-moderate El Ninos with +NAO/-EPO.

View attachment 29746

Fwiw, the composite of these 3 is very cold

View attachment 29747
Click to expand...

Wow that is kinda surprising, looks like the CFS. I hope it does as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest Euro seasonal for February:

I really hope this verifies.


View attachment 29740

View attachment 29741


View attachment 29742


The z500 forecast from the Euro looks like a blend of February 1995, 2003, & 2015, all of which were weak-moderate El Ninos with +NAO/-EPO.

View attachment 29746

Fwiw, the composite of these 3 is very cold

View attachment 29747


#graspingatstraws #fabfebruarywillsaveus
Click to expand...
I hope that verifies too, it looks too good to be true though. But maybe we can win for once next month.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top