Yep, I notice some have snow moving in from the NW aswell then a low develops late in the Atlantic, suggesting some ensemble show the NS possibly dominating more for some odd reason
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Avalanche
Member
Day 1 of our late night model watching. Better late than never.
Check out these ungodly 850’s on member 20
Yeah I’ll pass, 70s is way better than that
In comparison to 18z much healthy system.
00z
18z
00z
18z
CMC also came to party tonight
If the GEFS has told us anything tonight for certainty .. it’s that regardless of snow we’re about to be going into a time of very very cold air masses attacking us ... this will shock the system and I’m sure a lot will be talking about the drastic change in the coming weeks
Clem282340
Member
Does anyone have the gefs mean
Avalanche
Member
Hope the mean gets obliterated by one of those big dog members. Thats how it needs to go down.
One day when we’re gray and old we’ll have a 4” ensemble mean 12 hours before a storm and a member like E19 will verify and we won’t know what hit us. If will be a fitting way to meet our demise
At KSAV:
- A new record high minimum of 68 was set today, which obliterates the old record of 63 for 1/12 and is 30 warmer than normal! This is also 8 warmer than the normal
max. This also ties the monthly record high minimum. To put this into perspective, this is 2 warmer than the record for Feb and only one less than
that for March! There have even been several April days with a lower record minimum than 68!
- A new record high max of 82 was set today.
- A new record high minimum of 68 was set today, which obliterates the old record of 63 for 1/12 and is 30 warmer than normal! This is also 8 warmer than the normal
max. This also ties the monthly record high minimum. To put this into perspective, this is 2 warmer than the record for Feb and only one less than
that for March! There have even been several April days with a lower record minimum than 68!
- A new record high max of 82 was set today.
Clem282340
Member
It’s about euro time
John1122
Member
More importantly than the wild late run snow storms on the GEFS, a workable Pacific is about 6 days away now and it reloads into an even better look 10-16. It would be a great 10 days in the very coldest heart of winter.
The Euro looks interesting
Edit: Nope Squashed
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Edit: Nope Squashed
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The Euro looks interesting
Edit: Nope Squashed
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No winter storm but the big story on this Euro is the bigtime cold, the coldest of the season!
Clem282340
Member
When does the eps come out
John1122
Member
Very cold Euro, at the end of the run the Aleutian low looks like it might be ready to pop an EPO ridge into Alaska. If so, a reload of cold should come our way. Curious to see if the EPS shows any sign of it or not. The ensembles and ops haven't been in great agreement on any looks at 500mb so far.
Not surprisingly, the Euro lost the massive East based -NAO.
I will be surprised if that level of cold actually gets trapped down in Florida. Its hard to have 30s there when the temps upstream are also in the 30s.
Not surprisingly, the Euro lost the massive East based -NAO.
I will be surprised if that level of cold actually gets trapped down in Florida. Its hard to have 30s there when the temps upstream are also in the 30s.
BufordWX
Member
Flooding issues already starting in parts of North Georgia. Flash flood warning just issued for Greene, Taliaferro, and Wilkes county until 845 this morning. Been watching a training band of heavy rain sitting over that area for a couple hours now.
John1122
Member
Quite a few big hitters on the EPS. #16 and #45 I believe were the ones with some south of I-20 magic. But there was a good member or two for virtually everyone from Memphis and Alexandria Louisiana to Charleston and Norfolk on there.
Western NC will be the big winner on the ensemble mean.
Western NC will be the big winner on the ensemble mean.
Back to the shorter term, a 594 dm ridge right off the coast looks likely today, that is plain stupid, and not to mention the PWATs between 1.4-1.6, which is something you see in August 
Alright who’s got the euro ensembles ? Let’s see them
John1122
Member
John1122
Member
27 was a big dog. There were a few blanks of course but a lot of members had something.
GFS is headed towards a miller A setup that some of the GEFS ensembles show, solid miller A pattern, and the ensemble members that show that type of setup are noice 
John1122
Member
GFS keeps squashing things but it goes cold after the cutter Saturday and mostly stays there. Stout blocking in the Pac NW.
John1122
Member
Giant western ridge is too far East so the trough orients to chill E Canada and New England. Something close to an East based -NAO is taking shape though.
NCSNOW
Member
Heat Wave ends here Thursday night. Low back down in 30's, High Friday at 50. Crawls downward afterwards , forecast High low 40;s by Monday. Bottom line , pattern will have flipped by January 18th!
Yeah there's opportunity for some but those big highs never pan out hardly.
ATLwxfan
Member
Invariably this suppressed look is going to trend north. You and I both know that. This reeks of January 2014.
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Storm5
Member
I would say if Snow and Ice accumulate models will drop temps after storm moves through.
NCCWOP9077
Member
FYI, 06z GEFS is delayed per Ryan Maue, they are trying to resolve the issue ASAP
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Storm5
Member
Right but we highs down in the mid to low 20s after the 2014 storm . That won’t happen here
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I know everybody needs a diffrent recipe for there back yard. But the ingredients are there I'd like to see more of a ensemble spread instead off one or two big dogs skewing the mean. Threading the needle like always.
Yeah, that's a good point. We have a tendency, myself included, to drool over a big mean or an individual member that shows 2+ feet of snow. But the truth is, you want a really good spread of members showing some snow, with a couple of big ones scattered in there. That tells you that A, the pattern is really favorable for winter weather, and B, there is the possibility for more than just a run-of-the-mill car-topper.
It's pretty to look at but the intuitive part says wait a minute. Get some op agreement for a couple days then I'll bite right now I'm just guna nibble