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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Jon said:
???? It’s not like it predicted cold, it predicted normal to +0.5 temps for the SE for Jan

I’m a CFS thumper. It’s generally a good model during winter and I’ll continue to stand by that. This month will obviously bust. Anyone who follows the CFS knows it’s not a good model overall and has a ton of issues, but their 3-to-1 day lead monthly forecasts work out more than they don’t during the winter months.


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I wasn’t calling you a thumper , I know you post it often but not like some of the cold agenda pushers . They are annoying and it drive me nuts . We all know who they are in Twitter world


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FWIW The CFSv2 still has the end of the month looking BN and the month of February BN. So huge with caution or at your on risk of failure.
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These changes inside 72 hours are pretty insane. Went from a meh day in the 50s-60s to the possibility of rain/snow in about 5 runs. If the 12z ECMWF follows suit w/ this trend on the GFS & other high res guidance, I think we can say this is a legit threat at least if you're in the NW piedmont of NC.

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I’m beginning to think it might take a bigger storm, ie Severe weather, to help break the pattern up a bit. Problem is, MJO will still be raging bad. Lol. I will say tho, if we keep Canada cold, and I think we will, that would really help once we get other help with the MJO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
These changes inside 72 hours are pretty insane. Went from a meh day in the 50s-60s to the possibility of rain/snow in about 5 runs. If the 12z ECMWF follows suit w/ this trend on the GFS & other high res guidance, I think we can say this is a legit threat at least if you're in the NW piedmont of NC.

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This is the time period that piqued my interest for over a week. 2nd trough dives down quick enough following the first one to give us a chance. If the ridge out west was a little stronger forcing the trough more north to south vs north to SE a lot of us would have had a shot. Good to see that at least some may see some wintry out of it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah lol can't blame them. It's almost time to pull the trigger on a thread given this is now within 48 hours.
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Time to ditch the globals and start looking at the high resolution models. This one could work out for some of us. One thing I can't understand is how the models show the surface temps warming dramatically during the day with thicknesses falling all day. Perhaps @Webberweather53 can explain.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Time to ditch the globals and start looking at the high resolution models. This one could work out for some of us. One thing I can't understand is how the models show the surface temps warming dramatically during the day with thicknesses falling all day. Perhaps @Webberweather53 can explain.
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I think it’s due to a strong ULL in the Great Lakes, while that’s helping pull it north and create WAA, it’s also strengthening it to create a deeper low. We need the two pieces of energy the separate more if we are going to see anything.


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Cad Wedge NC said:
Time to ditch the globals and start looking at the high resolution models. This one could work out for some of us. One thing I can't understand is how the models show the surface temps warming dramatically during the day with thicknesses falling all day. Perhaps @Webberweather53 can explain.
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Deep layer (500-1000mb) thickness is directly proportional to the average temperature in the layer, but this is over a layer that's 5-6km thick. Cold advection in the mid-upper portions of this layer will be stronger than low-level warm advection here, creating lower thicknesses. However, right at the surface, temperatures are dictated by different processes and will actually warm somewhat due to increased insolation, low-level warm advection, latent heat release, & there could be some added impact from downsloping as the low-level wind field shifts to westerly directly behind this system on Tue afternoon.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I think it’s due to a strong ULL in the Great Lakes, while that’s helping pull it north and create WAA, it’s also strengthening it to create a deeper low. We need the two pieces of energy the separate more if we are going to see anything.


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I get the WAA at the 925mb level and up. However, surface winds are from the NW during the entire event.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Deep layer (500-1000mb) thickness is directly proportional to the average temperature in the layer, but this is over a layer that's 5-6km thick. Cold advection in the mid-upper portions of this layer will be stronger than low-level warm advection here, creating lower thicknesses. However, right at the surface, temperatures are dictated by different processes and will actually warm somewhat due to increased insolation, low-level warm advection, latent heat release, & there could be some added impact from downsloping as the low-level wind field shifts to westerly directly behind this system on Tue afternoon.
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Thanks man, I didn't even take down-sloping into account.
 
Even though this pattern still kinda sucks, the GEFS has been backing away from the huge -PNA it showed around mid-month. The entire wave pattern in the North Pacific is more amplified and characterized by shorter wavelengths than previous runs, that certainly helps. Our TPV is also lurking just north of the Hudson Bay. I certainly don't think the pattern will change this early but the TPV sitting in our backyard is a huge sign that we need to be cautious going into the latter portions of the month. A few minor tweaks make all the difference between a blowtorch and an extremely cold pattern

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Tornadoes anyone? Severe weather setup looking better for next weekend bs0500.conus (1).jpg

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With this potential D2-3 system, we better hope rates are good if it does come to fruition considering the soil temps are on fire and BL temps will be marginal if they're good enough at all. I know people laugh off soil temps a lot, but they definitely matter when rates are light and BL temps are iffy. Combine that with daytime sunlight (which fortunately is about as small of a factor as it ever is given it's early January) and you have the unholy trifecta. If rates are heavy, it will be most helpful.
 
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