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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Flooding gonna be a big problem for areas around AR, MO, west TN according the the Euro. Euro showing 8-10” of rain over the next ten days and that is likely under modeled.
 
Guess this boat owner is unfamiliar with these blow outs and his boat is now resting on dry ground.
 

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Do we need a thread for the flooding/SVR threat late week across many parts of the south? NWS MEG already mentioning the potential as something to monitor.
 
Webberweather53 said:
So much for those end of the month CFS runs that didn't show a blowtorch in the SE US.

There's pretty much no way we're climbing out of this hole this month.
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Yeah the CFS thumpers are in hiding

Not me , I’ll be in shorts later this week when it’s in the 70s


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Probably mostly noise, but a decent number of Euro ensemble members definitely hinting at a change in pattern around the 18th. Looks still mostly transient, but it's not torch city.
 
Arcc said:
Probably mostly noise, but a decent number of Euro ensemble members definitely hinting at a change in pattern around the 18th. Looks still mostly transient, but it's not torch city.
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A lot of times that's how we get out of a locked pattern; one transient step at a time. The 18th would be great if that's the first step in the right direction...
 
Arcc said:
Flooding gonna be a big problem for areas around AR, MO, west TN according the the Euro. Euro showing 8-10” of rain over the next ten days and that is likely under modeled.
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Areas that end up in the axis of heaviest rain can probably expect to be dealing with significant water damage to homes.
 
Looking at the MJO forecasts as well as the major indices, I think we can put a fork in January until at least the 20th. The one bright spot for part (a small part) of our area is that the EURO and CFSV2 show February being below normal. I can see where the northern parts of the SE can score between the 5th-25th of February if we can get the timing just right. However for the majority of our posters, Ga, Ala, and even SC look kind of bleak. With the skill level being as low as they have been on the models though, it could flip around but personally I am no longer optimistic it will for the bulk of the SE
 
SD said:
Idk man. Its really close to being somewhat legit. The 12z runs so far (nam/icon) were south of their previous runs. It probably doesn't work out but 50-75 more miles south and we've got something. The preceding air mass isn't bad and could lock into a wet snow profile

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I have to agree with you here, this system showing up on the NAM and being hinted at on other NWP is 2 days out, if the 12z EPS & GEFS support said storm, it could warrant a thread.
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah the CFS thumpers are in hiding


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???? It’s not like it predicted cold, it predicted normal to +0.5 temps for the SE for Jan

I’m a CFS thumper. It’s generally a good model during winter and I’ll continue to stand by that. This month will obviously bust. Anyone who follows the CFS knows it’s not a good model overall and has a ton of issues, but their 3-to-1 day lead monthly forecasts work out more than they don’t during the winter months.


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