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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Highs in the low to mid 30s starting January 21st East of the mtns. Sooner and below freezing west of the blue ridge.
 
Major deposit of dry cold air will be stuck at the surface. Any storm that comes too quickly will be Icy mix or snow esp NC/TN.given those temps prior.
 
I've got no problem with suppression on this model given that in the longer range, this one arguably does worse than the old GFS with predicting how far the cold press presses down. It does look like the wave gets strung out but it still produces pretty good moisture to me.

Edit: And based off 850s being below freezing, temps in the 40s in areas is more than enough to think that if good precip made it it'd end up being snow/wintry through the moisture getting it there.
 
Close call at hr 228...for Florida winter weather in the north-western part of the state.
 
I like where the gfs is now with the low. Gefs has been showing some southern sliders
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Close call at hr 228...for Florida winter weather in the north-western part of the state.
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Some wintry mix showers poss for rare places of coastal Texas, coastal Louisiana, north-west Florida and then Myrtle Beach, SC barely avoids the wintry precip.
 
Gonna be some ensembles showing wintery accums for unusual places of the extreme lower s/e namely the beaches. Maybe even a big dog for Myrtle Beach.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Stale cold air beyond day 10..meh

We need to capitalize. I’m not very confident we’ll get several weeks worth of opportunities
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Don’t know how u can make this statement logically .. the model at its longest range still isn’t even into February .. plus with the MJO just going to be starting to get it’s act together by this time period of our possible event and then continuing to move into favorable phases for February snow events don’t know how u could make the statement that we have to score in these 5 days or we don’t see weeks of favorability ?
 
Also if you look at the Gfs as it continues out u can see how we have endless possibility’s as a massive arctic shot looks to be headed down for us after our third possible winter wave
 
Interesting thing to also point out from the gefs is that a lot of the models with the first wave gives a good icing event to Southern Virginia and even north north north section of NC while operation continues to show it much further north ... some also create a fairly good sized storm for the northeast as it wraps up good... this initial storm could have the downstream effects that lay the frame work for our winter system
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Don’t know how u can make this statement logically .. the model at its longest range still isn’t even into February .. plus with the MJO just going to be starting to get it’s act together by this time period of our possible event and then continuing to move into favorable phases for February snow events don’t know how u could make the statement that we have to score in these 5 days or we don’t see weeks of favorability ?
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Well, I stated my confidence level which is more of an opinion mostly based on recent February failure and what seems to be the new normal. I just don’t believe we we’ll see a favorable pattern last very long. Because when does it? Let’s just go ahead get some snow and after that it can be as hot as it wants to for the remainder of winter.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Well, I stated my confidence level which is more of an opinion mostly based on recent February failure and what seems to be the new normal. I just don’t believe we we’ll see a favorable pattern last very long. Because when does it? Let’s just go ahead get some snow and after that it can be as hot as it wants to for the remainder of winter.
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I do understand confidence level is low ... long range Gfs saying you’re not going to be happy with many more winter weather chances to come
 
Member 19 would genuinely be the biggest storm most of us have ever seen in our lifetime heck blizzard conditions would be likely in many places... truly were looking at a great boom or great bust scenario but the GEFS members are really going for boom ... Also seeing a lot of big ice storm members .. probably since they would be dealing with marginal cold air and cold air at surface ... we are in for a ride this week
 
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