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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

A beauty just hanging off the coast of SC next Tuesday. Cold air in place, just need this thing to trend North. 8 days out. Let’s reel it in.
 
Robert West said:
A beauty just hanging off the coast of SC next Tuesday. Cold air in place, just need this thing to trend North. 8 days out. Let’s reel it in.
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Always a delicate balance. This would be more likely to trend closer to the coast than the opposite but that could also make it too warm for most for snow.
 
GaWx said:
Always a delicate balance. This would be more likely to trend closer to the coast than the opposite but that could also make it too warm for most for snow.
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I see, dew points are relatively low so some cooling could occur. But that’s getting to deep in details really. Would see like it would support wintry precip Columbia points NW depending on how close it tracked.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Guys aren't we long over do for another storm of the century from back in 93? Just seems like one of these models is going to catch us off guard soon especially with the pattern change around the end of the month
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The Superstorm of 1993 was a freak of nature. Its seeds had been sown a month earlier as the jet stream -- the river of air that flows east to west 30,000 ft. above North America -- dipped dramatically down from Canada and blasted cold arctic air across Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas and Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico before banking back up the eastern seaboard. The jet stream that spring looked like a giant "U" flowing over the central and eastern United States.

On Friday, March 12, a cluster of powerful thunderstorms formed in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and then merged with a narrow band of snow and rain that was pushing in from the West Coast. The two storm systems collided with the jet stream, and by 7 p.m. they began screaming across the Gulf toward Florida, pushing a large storm surge ahead of their path.

* took this from a article


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Robert West said:
I see, dew points are relatively low so some cooling could occur. But that’s getting to deep in details really. Would see like it would support wintry precip Columbia points NW depending on how close it tracked.
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Yeah, every one is different and this is in an interesting position for a place like Columbia, no doubt, if just the right amount of NW shift were to occur AND the Arctic high at least remain as cold. We know a large majority don’t work out for places like Columbia or else their averages would be higher. I certainly wouldn’t bet on it but maybe this will be the exception?
 
NoSnowATL said:
The Superstorm of 1993 was a freak of nature. Its seeds had been sown a month earlier as the jet stream -- the river of air that flows east to west 30,000 ft. above North America -- dipped dramatically down from Canada and blasted cold arctic air across Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas and Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico before banking back up the eastern seaboard. The jet stream that spring looked like a giant "U" flowing over the central and eastern United States.

On Friday, March 12, a cluster of powerful thunderstorms formed in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and then merged with a narrow band of snow and rain that was pushing in from the West Coast. The two storm systems collided with the jet stream, and by 7 p.m. they began screaming across the Gulf toward Florida, pushing a large storm surge ahead of their path.

* took this from a article


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I need this to happen again and be stronger with more snow than rain for the whole southeast... I was only 3 years old when this happen so I don't remember it and need for it to happen again so I can say I experienced being older
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, every one is different and this is in an interesting position for a place like Columbia, no doubt, if just the right amount of NW shift were to occur AND the Arctic high at least remain as cold. We know a large majority don’t work out for places like Columbia or else their averages would be higher. I certainly wouldn’t bet on it but maybe this will be the exception?
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Hoping so, we’ve been left out awhile now. But, hope everyone on the board somehow cashes in this Winter somehow.
 
Good luck getting these 2 waves to ride east in concert with each other.
3c56c409716a22aee7fa34b5873ba360.jpg


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GaWx said:
This I agree with. Of course, NC and maybe TN would be favored for obvious reasons.
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The tracks of these lows give those in the Deep South a shot, depending on the cold air available. A split pattern and active stj are not usually overwhelming cold though. We can watch and keep hoping for a favorable outcome, but these kind of opportunities don’t present themselves but a couple of times per year. Also, it’s been a while...
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not really a coastal..late bloomer shooting due east NE..not a bad runView attachment 30726
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I agree with a late bloomer, cause the flow/setup would not allow for low development sooner. Everything upstream over the Gulf gets suppressed. It would be difficult for a northwest trend for that low with an off shore flow and the high pressure pushes east as the late bloomer pops...OTS it goes!
 
WxWatch said:
I agree with a late bloomer, cause the flow/setup would not allow for low development sooner. Everything upstream over the Gulf gets suppressed. It would be difficult for a northwest trend for that low with an off shore flow and the high pressure pushes east as the late bloomer pops...OTS it goes!
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Taking the model verbatim, yes. But you know that solution is going to change, and 8 out of 10 times, late bloomers become perfect bloomers to early bloomers to change your bloomers in the rain.
 
Rain Cold said:
Taking the model verbatim, yes. But you know that solution is going to change, and 8 out of 10 times, late bloomers become perfect bloomers to early bloomers to change your bloomers in the rain.
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... and the banker never wears a mack in the pouring (cold) rain ... :eek: ...very strange ...
 
I think this is the peak of this MJO phase 5, amp of 3.53!

2020 1 12 3.3188388 1.2038326 5 3.5304255
 
Rain Cold said:
Taking the model verbatim, yes. But you know that solution is going to change, and 8 out of 10 times, late bloomers become perfect bloomers to early bloomers to change your bloomers in the rain.
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Yeah, things will adjust as time closes in. But, I'm not expecting any major changes really. Looking up at the 500mb, I don't like how there is a ridge out west that is massive, it buckles all the way into Canada...basically a big upside down "U" that is making things rough for us. Extreme tall ridging over the Rockies/Great Plains into Canada is no good. If this ridge was further west, I would be interested.
gfs_z500_vort_us_33.png

gfs_z500a_us_33.png
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I need this to happen again and be stronger with more snow than rain for the whole southeast... I was only 3 years old when this happen so I don't remember it and need for it to happen again so I can say I experienced being older
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Not saying that its impossible, but the 93 Blizzard was a once in a lifetime type of event; truly one of a kind. Very unlikely that a generation who experienced that will see something like that twice
 
WxWatch said:
Yeah, things will adjust as time closes in. But, I'm not expecting any major changes really. Looking up at the 500mb, I don't like how there is a ridge out west that is massive, it buckles all the way into Canada...basically a big upside down "U" that is making things rough for us. Extreme tall ridging over the Rockies/Great Plains into Canada is no good. If this ridge was further west, I would be interested.
View attachment 30731

View attachment 30732
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Yeah I agree, it's not perfect as shown. But what I'm trying to say is that we're studying a 192 hour image. Not only are there going to be changes between now and then, there are going to be LARGE changes. I mean, at 0z, there might be a 500 mile difference in the ridge placement. Heck, there may not even be a ridge at all. And all of this reminds me that we're analyzing the details of a 192 storm! Why are we even doing this lol?

All we really know is that the pattern is probably going to be ripe for a storm pretty soon.
 
deltadog03 said:
What’s interesting in that is, less kicker=looks more like the euro run today.
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Exactly but the euro evolution has some complexities that are worry some. Watch how it pinches off the AK ridge then it eventually becomes what helps suppress and cut off the energy over our region. I'm not saying it's impossible but I don't want to keep adding layers to my tootsie roll pop
805980f8c8b184213c17260b18985792.gif


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BIG FROSTY said:
Man 18z ICON looks very interesting for Friday night/ Saturday for CAD areas in NC
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Agree. It starts off with the classic iso 700/850mb convergent iso band locks in the wedge and goes to an ice storm. If the euro gets on board giddy up for the first wintry precip of the season I think

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I saw someone ask about it earlier but shouldn’t the 18z eps be in range of the system. And could someone post the 18z eps I’m curious how it looks?
 
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