Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

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Well the MA forum is not the SE forum. What's bad for them may not be all bad for us. I'm looking at it right now and I see 3 types of solutions, 1 being like the Euro within 100 miles, 3 nice looking storms down in almost ideal SE storm locations, and a few way OTS. The other ones must not show any sort of low. Again, we have time.
Here’s the map I was referencing. I should have been more specific. Not sure this is good for anybody. But you’re right, plenty of time F60201A4-CD7A-4E04-BCCF-A4D8A73F478B.png
 
Certainly evidence of some blocking showing up and its not in the super long term
gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_nhem_33.png
It's has been infuriating that the NAO flipped to positive exactly Dec 1st and hasn't looked back. But atleast there is some reason for optimism now.
nao.sprd2 (4).gif
Sure do like this look reminds me of the storm last year that never quite made it to land. This has a better chance to come inland.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_33.png
 
The latest runs of the GEFS and the CFSV2 both show the MJO moving heavily from 7 into 8 and a few members show it progressing into 1. I will feel a lot more confident if the ECMWF/EPS follows suit. Regardless, it seems we will have a shot of BN cold and possibly wintry weather for up to a 30 day period
 
Did the snow mean increased from 0z?
Also what are the probabilities of an Inch of snow ?
I'd say it decreased, but overall about the same
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-0169600.png
1580169600-jvYCmjr5Tvs.png

12z Probs

1580169600-al8F9N6kA4A.png
 
EPS looks great day 11+.

View attachment 30694

That looks really good, thanks! Perhaps it's starting to see the high amp 7/8 in the long term; trying to pop an Aleutian low and alaskan ridge finally. I like the split flow signature showing up. Man, if we could just get that within 7-10.

I feel like I'm on a treadmill chasing a carrot!