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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

As @GaWx said, here's the long range GFS going for glory
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Big beautiful high pressures finally pouring into the US around the 17th that will switch things up nicely for us here in the SE Gfs has been on this for a while now .. don’t know if we can discount it at this point it’s been caving to the euro
 
"Omg, this pattern sucks, winter cancel! Look at that big SE ridge!!"

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This GFS run is another reminder to everyone that we don't live at 500mb. This kind of look w/ a deep Newfoundland vortex favors cold air damming if the right s/w comes along. It's getting into fantasyland yes, but this is a very obvious reminder that -PNA doesn't automatically = crappy pattern in the SE US, you really have to look deeper than that because a huge 50-50 low squelches the idea of a consistent torch despite the big ridge at 500mb.

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deltadog03 said:
Yup and with that much low level cold it would be frozen or freezing further south. But let’s obviously not get ahead of ourselves. Lmao
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Yep because we saw today Boone NC can’t even support accumulations on warm roads. Only the grass and even there it melted. And to add it’s really gonna get warmer this weekend.
 
I really disagree with what the GFS is showing. I think the pattern favors cold rain but can’t rule out ice on metal objects or trees. It’s way to warm this winter and only gonna scorch more this weekend combined with a wet ground that keeps getting wetter. None of this supports major winter wx accumulations on roads or really any depth to it without melting.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I really disagree with what the GFS is showing. I think the pattern favors cold rain but can’t rule out ice on metal objects or trees. It’s way to warm this winter and only gonna scorch more this weekend combined with a wet ground that keeps getting wetter. None of this supports major winter wx accumulations on roads or really any depth to it without melting.
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Automatically making assumptions about specifics (whether it's too warm or not, etc) from a 10 day solution via a single operational model run like this usually isn't a good idea.
 
But we can assume the ground will be too saturated given our past few months. GFS shows 3 more big wet events likely bringing warm nights too before any poss. winter wx. That doesn’t bode well for ice accum I would rather see major dry cold.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
But we can assume the ground will be too saturated given our past few months. GFS shows 3 more big wet events likely bringing warm nights too before any poss. winter wx. That doesn’t bode well for ice accum I would rather see major dry cold.
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Moderately saturated or dry ground doesn't preclude or entice ice accrual, high temperatures certainly do however. Ice accrual on the ground is usually not the issue with ice storms anyway. Rather, it's the accumulation of ice on elevated surfaces like bridges, trees, & power lines that are actually a concern during ice storms, so idk why this is a discussion point.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Moderately saturated or dry ground doesn't preclude or entice ice accrual, high temperatures certainly do however. Ice accrual on the ground is usually not the issue with ice storms anyway. Rather, it's the accumulation of ice on elevated surfaces like bridges, trees, & power lines that are actually a concern during ice storms, so idk why this is a discussion point.
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And honestly we get a huge blast of cold air before this event begins ... temps going down into the mid 20s in some locations .. that type of cold blast for sure will correct the ground temperatures and help with ice accrual on surfaces
 
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