Storm5
Member
Incoming third wave day 11 /12
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Good luck trying to figure this one out:
The "third" period of interest just has 3 waves close to each other, it's not squashed, it's chaotic.
The "third" period of interest just has 3 waves close to each other, it's not squashed, it's chaotic.
Storm5
Member
Literally three waves this run next Tuesday through Sunday all holding potential
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packfan98
Moderator
264. Maybe a mixed bag in NC. Colder than 6z, but still not cold enough. Tracking specifics with so much happening before hand is pretty futile, but I want to see a big operational run!
That is easily getting within the NW correctable range...
LovingGulfLows
Member
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So many waves/threats in a small period of time. I'm sure two of them will congeal into one as we get closer.
Too much energy, GFS can't figure out which LP will be dominant.... had it right where we wanted it in C. Fl but then another LP forms along the NC coast. Cold air is close by and energy everywhere, we score with one of these no doubt
SnowNotHappen
Member
Hoping that the 12Z GEFS Ensembles will paint us a pretty picture across the south, and especially South Carolina 
If the upper low over the NE would lift out a little it would alter that and allow any wave traveling the south to amplify possibly.
Once the NW trend occurs watch out Carolinas?
GEFS still has a majority of members showing snow/ice for CAD areas this Saturday.
That's a mean looking trough draping directly over the SE funneling in some cold air. So many factors to work out to get that moisture out the gulf to amplify.
Agreed.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GEFS is still suppressed but it gives the first wave a bit more of a shot...looked like to me only 4-5 members that didn't try.
Stormlover
Member
I had almost 11 inches just nw of Huntsville, including 4 inches in 1 hour..it was awesomeThere are snow amounts for invidivual states(widespread amounts of 4-10 inches occured in Northern GA).
Here's a satellite view of the areas that had snowcover on January 11th, 2011.
I'm not saying this storm will be exactly like that one...it just reminds me of this storm.
tennessee storm
Member
12zgfs has a active southern jet... question can we get some quality cold air to meet up with one these waves ... just not sure till the mjo progresses more
Several members are closer to a nice coastal ( a few bombs) around D6-7, the one @packfan98 and @Fountainguy97 were mentioning. It's not there yet but dang close and I'll take it at this range
Fountainguy97
Member
Yep its close. EURO has led the way. lets see what it has to say. Also this storm has SIGNIFICANT implications for the others downstream. If this is caught and bombs out it will change up the blocking pattern to our north. Step one in this multi-wave pattern is this first wave and what does it do.
packfan98
Moderator
Yes. The trough axis has trended deeper, sharper, and further west. If that continues at least the coastal sections would be in play. I think there's room for it to turn the corner a bit.
Totally agree
And you can see some snow with some of the members along the Carolina coast, a couple of nice hits, but hopefully just the beginning of continued NW shift
You can see the ridge tick west and steepen, looking at your gif. That is key. It will allow the northern wave to dig. I haven't looked at vort maps yet, but I assume there will be energy in the STJ. If that's true, then a digging n/s vort will have the potential to link up with it and phase somewhere over/near the SE US. The trend in the gif looks really good, and if that continues, we will see a couple of big dog solutions show up before too long.
ETA: Incidentally, you see some riding going off in eastern Canada. It's not much, but if that trends stronger, things would slow down a little. That certainly wouldn't hurt.
Here is Kirk Mellish's latest blog:
https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/old-man-winter-still-out-there-lurking/f6QKTQ8ki6jVx8oe01QsGM/
You all can read if you like ... he basically is saying that signs are out there about the pattern change.
Sort of off-topic, but he did have this graphic that I had not seen before. Maybe many of you have. Personally, I get lost with many of the indices we look at, such as NAO, PNA, EPO, etc. and I need to study that more. Perhaps @pcbjr would want to post this in the Wiki when it gets back up. Anyway, here is the graphic:
Sorry that it is so large a pic!!
Looking forward to some entertaining times ahead for us all!!
https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/old-man-winter-still-out-there-lurking/f6QKTQ8ki6jVx8oe01QsGM/
You all can read if you like ... he basically is saying that signs are out there about the pattern change.
Sort of off-topic, but he did have this graphic that I had not seen before. Maybe many of you have. Personally, I get lost with many of the indices we look at, such as NAO, PNA, EPO, etc. and I need to study that more. Perhaps @pcbjr would want to post this in the Wiki when it gets back up. Anyway, here is the graphic:
Sorry that it is so large a pic!!
Looking forward to some entertaining times ahead for us all!!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
CMC literally just missed on being VERY interesting for eastern North Carolina.
Edit: and is already looking interesting behind it.
Edit: and is already looking interesting behind it.
This could be the one for South Carolina.. I count at least 8-9 members with some type of accumulation here. Wow!
some coastals definitely showing up.
Fountainguy97
Member
In this case the NW trend is our friend. That alone significantly increases our odds just from a numerical standpoint. This is the perfect place for a storm system to be at this range.
Just need the trend to continue.
Coastals just make me want to throw something most of the time. Warm nose usually ends up ruining things for the Eastern half of NC and SC. It's a very fine line we walk with the NW trend and the warm nose wins 99% of the time. The big exception for my area being the Carolina crusher, which was and is a very rare occurrence.
Id be worried about that one amping and coming inland. That is a big s/w diving into the Upper Midwest.
Snowed In
Member
That's why we're fine with it near Bermuda at this range!
Snowed In
Member
starting to notice, even the members that have a late bloomer show snow from the trough/clipper itself, and with such a deep trough like that likely means convective SN showers from very cold air aloft, but i honesty think the coastal is gonna trend NW so that's just another possible thing at this point
Taking account of how much moisture is in the southern stream this year, if we get the pattern the FV3 shows, we will be digging out.
Getting the FV3 pattern is a another animal.
Getting the FV3 pattern is a another animal.
This is what I was talking about the other day...having lots of members showing something and a few showing a big dog. If you're in eastern NC, for example, you have 14 members giving you snow or having it really close to you. And you have 2 or 3 really significant or big dog events. It tells you that you'd better pay attention and that you might need to really, really pay attention. That's what you want to see. And you want to see it hold, obviously.