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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

12z Hour 240 till 360 on the Canadian and GFS Ensembles turn in True winter. Both have negative 850's across the entire conus as time progresses. Encouraging to see. Not digging into what,why ,How it comes up with these solutions. Just gonna monitor trend. Use pivotal and you can roll em forward. Heres one screen shot.

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EURO agrees on cold prior to our storm threat. This can work for heart of CAD if storm trends are quicker and a tick cooler. 40s but can see isobars bending during the storm. I’ll chance it for now and leave it on the back burner. DD526D9D-1961-4D29-99F7-8D7C183D8FAD.jpeg
 
whatalife said:
Not at all and I would agree about the trough in the west. Only problem is we can’t really trust it.


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The tPV consolidates in the wrong spot so we have to wait for it to do something. A piece breaks up and forms an Aleutian low and the other is still consolidated. We need it to stretch out and come pay us a visit or break apart come Feb.
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KyloG said:
The tPV consolidates in the wrong spot so we have to wait for it to do something. A piece breaks up and forms an Aleutian low and the other is still consolidated. We need it to stretch out and come pay us a visit or break apart come Feb.
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Oh.... that's going in the right direction at a snail's pace

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SD said:
Oh.... that's going in the right direction at a snail's pace

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Once it consolidates we are kind of screwed until it stretches and/or breaks apart. Hopefully right in time for Fab Feb.
 
KyloG said:
Once it consolidates we are kind of screwed until it stretches and/or breaks apart. Hopefully right in time for Fab Feb.
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What's 384 at h5. I know you've provided a lot but figured I'd ask

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Jon said:
That account flips like the modeling. Every post is what the latest modeled temp departure is. Not sure how anyone can follow that with confidence.

He can’t take away this cold that is ending up verifying very, very nicely for early next week.




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Heck for some of us the colder air comes tomorrow and into Friday morning before a very very brief Saturday afternoon warmup. After that the really cold air comes in.
 

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Not getting the trends we want out of this first system. EPS support really falling off and that's a very bleak sign.

But models are still spitting out a wide range of scenarios so there is still some significant wiggle room left.
The JMA is the closest I've seen to a monster but still its just too far offshore.

If there is a significant shift in the works we would likely see it in the next 24-36 hrs. Our energy is dropping down in the 120-144 timeframe so we should start to see some consistency run-to-run over the next few runs. Its in this 100-140 timeframe we usually see our significant trends if they occur. Of course they can happen up to hour 0 as well.

In my opinion this is becoming a long shot but its still totally a wintry threat.
At least it will feel like winter. 50s and 60s in the mountains is not winter lol.

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