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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

GeorgiaGirl said:
Dude, the Pacific just doesn't want to play. I shouldn't have said anything about Texas snow because that wave that was originally producing there that just gets overtaken by a fairly strong Pacific wave that's just been trending stronger and stronger, then by the time it heads east, the cold that was in place is moderating a ton.

Next week might just be following to see if the eastern Carolinas get snow.

Edit: This actually works initially in Tennessee for snow though, but it's oddly with a cutter.
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We get front end thumped in East Tennessee occasionally. At times it even causes a delayed changeover. We had some 4-6 inch front end thumps in 2015 or 2016.
 
I can see Asheville NC to Mount Airy NC be advertised more snow/sleet over ZR while more areas are added to the ZR threat south and east with later GFS runs today and tomorrow. I also believe Virginia and maybe some parts of NC never go above freezing as CAD is always removed too quickly on guidance especially the GFS. This is for around Jan-23rd.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
GFS is very consistent on the cold temps prior. Meaning whatever falls next is likely to refreeze before reaching the surface. I know too far out but it’s very promising we have the cold temps in place just prior.
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Always good to have the cold in place first. Unfortunately, the overall pattern is really unfavorable for anything other than snapshots of cold for the next 10 days (and probably longer, given how things keep getting pushed back).

I can't see the EPS past D10, but outside of the CFS and the GEPS -- and we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel here -- the LR looks no better than average, if you factor in biases and the tendency to false start.

We're getting no help from the MJO, apparently, after it gets to P7. There's no way to know for sure, but it looks to make another run for the warm phases again, which would take us into mid-February. And now, we're presented with data that shows the cold phases might not even deliver cold. Who knows on that. But we do know that there is no blocking to speak of anywhere on the horizon. No EPO, no NAO, no AO, etc. Until we see signs that those are going to change for real, then I don't see how we can logically conclude that things are going to get much colder anytime soon.

The overall pattern is shaping up to be not nearly as bad as what we're coming through now, in terms of anomalies. So instead of 60s and 70s and rain, we should get rain with temps in the 40s and 50s. None of this means that we can't time something out. And I'm not saying winter is over at all. But with what looked like a promising sustained cold pattern shaping up now fading/getting pushed back AGAIN, it's hard not to be a little honest and say that things really don't look all that good.

But at the end of the day, it is weather, and it can still surprise us. I will say that the CFS has been resolute in it's quest for cold. So we'll see. But if the 12z runs and ensembles continue to look like crap until magically just after D10, then it will be really hard to be optimistic that any sort of cold and snowy pattern is going to set up anytime soon.
 
KyloG said:
That's not exactly the ridge orientation we want. Can someone shove it up the Yukon

View attachment 30994
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I wanted to say this a day or so ago, but didn’t think it may happen. The ridge up building across the northern states into Canada is about the same when we had that super ULL fail about a month ago. Shame if it happens again.
 
Rain Cold said:
Always good to have the cold in place first. Unfortunately, the overall pattern is really unfavorable for anything other than snapshots of cold for the next 10 days (and probably longer, given how things keep getting pushed back).

I can't see the EPS past D10, but outside of the CFS and the GEPS -- and we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel here -- the LR looks no better than average, if you factor in biases and the tendency to false start.

We're getting no help from the MJO, apparently, after it gets to P7. There's no way to know for sure, but it looks to make another run for the warm phases again, which would take us into mid-February. And now, we're presented with data that shows the cold phases might not even deliver cold. Who knows on that. But we do know that there is no blocking to speak of anywhere on the horizon. No EPO, no NAO, no AO, etc. Until we see signs that those are going to change for real, then I don't see how we can logically conclude that things are going to get much colder anytime soon.

The overall pattern is shaping up to be not nearly as bad as what we're coming through now, in terms of anomalies. So instead of 60s and 70s and rain, we should get rain with temps in the 40s and 50s. None of this means that we can't time something out. And I'm not saying winter is over at all. But with what looked like a promising sustained cold pattern shaping up now fading/getting pushed back AGAIN, it's hard not to be a little honest and say that things really don't look all that good.

But at the end of the day, it is weather, and it can still surprise us. I will say that the CFS has been resolute in it's quest for cold. So we'll see. But if the 12z runs and ensembles continue to look like crap until magically just after D10, then it will be really hard to be optimistic that any sort of cold and snowy pattern is going to set up anytime soon.
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It’s becoming doubtful that this supposed pattern change is anything but transient. We’ll be putting all our marbles into February. In years past that would have been golden.


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whatalife said:
It’s becoming doubtful that this supposed pattern change is anything but transient. We’ll be putting all our marbles into February. In years past that would have been golden.


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Agreed. We hear about how Feb is the best climo month for snow. While that's true, it's reliant upon things that don't really seem to happen anymore or things that seldom seem to happen anymore. It's the same concept to me as using analogs from the 1800s. I am not sure if older, historical precedents matter, because I'm not sure the same forcing factors work the same way today.

Is it a coincidence that whether it's ENSO + or -, QBO + or -, AAM + or -, MT + or -, Solar + or -, none of it results in blocking anymore? I don't think so.
 
I know it's a really bad model, especially way out there, but if you can't even get the GFS to show a fantasy pattern, things are really going downhill.

240:

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_41.png

372:

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_63.png

That's just puke vomit barf horrible for late January, about to make the turn into February.
 
Rain Cold said:
I know it's a really bad model, especially way out there, but if you can't even get the GFS to show a fantasy pattern, things are really going downhill.

240:

View attachment 31008

372:

View attachment 31009

That's just puke vomit barf horrible for late January, about to make the turn into February.
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At least it's still cool on the surface with temps in the 40s to 50s for highs. It could be worse.
 
The Cad areas of NC and upstate SC is looking more and more like an Ice event next week rather that a snow event.

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Rain Cold said:
Agreed. We hear about how Feb is the best climo month for snow. While that's true, it's reliant upon things that don't really seem to happen anymore or things that seldom seem to happen anymore. It's the same concept to me as using analogs from the 1800s. I am not sure if older, historical precedents matter, because I'm not sure the same forcing factors work the same way today.

Is it a coincidence that whether it's ENSO + or -, QBO + or -, AAM + or -, MT + or -, Solar + or -, none of it results in blocking anymore? I don't think so.
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I don't think the factors work the same way, either. That's why I said in my earlier post that anything beyond 5 to 7 days is just guessing on the models. The computers have logarithms based on how things used to work, and I think the reason they are so inconsistent and changing run to run for anything past 5 days is because the logarithms they have to work with just don't match up with how the weather works now. The factors we used to count on for snow here don't work the same because our climate is not the same.
 
Agreed mainly just looking for one winter storm not the entire back end of winter to be cold and stormy. A LOT can change by the time we reach Jan. 23rd when the storm risk is highest. By then February could be looking better than it is today.
 
This is through hour 138.
GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_138.png
 
Until we enter the cold pattern this weekend and deal with poss. major winter storm around Jan23-25 I am putting zero stock on what February is going to do. It’s obvious guidance bounces around too much during pattern changes with an active STJ.
 
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