gfs looks drier as well
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Today is the day to chase. Very heavy snow NC mtns. Not sure if the lightning is actually occurring or not. 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Better get above 4000 or 4500 feet. Upper 30s and low 40s in the mtns currently. Boone reporting 37 last hour.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 530
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- 1,458
This view from the SE shows just how elevation dependent today's High Country snow is
Charlotte NC still being advertised for a storm later today that evolves into a little wind threat for South Carolina. Very persistent HRRR and NAM.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yeah I’m not even seeing snow on the ground in banner elk which is close to 4000 feet. Wow.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah what could have been with colder temps.. Currently pouring rain here and a cool 38.
Sums up this winter nicely. We just cannot get it all to line up.
What a winter.
Nice snow falling on Beech MTN ski resort cam. Snow level should fall some according to NWS Blacksburg.
Well damn, models still struggling but going in the wrong direction. Lol
Looks like UK had some light RN/SN for that Thursday system
925s
925s
Rug pull 7 of this winter from the gefs, It just doesn’t want to snow here, NS was probably more out of sync 
Check out these DP’s ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
UKMET says no dice w/ the mid-week system.
We need legitimate precip to overwhelm the shallow above freezing layer near the surface. Very frustrating to have enough cold air in place for once and a great surface low track, yet no moisture.
We seriously can't do anything right.
We need legitimate precip to overwhelm the shallow above freezing layer near the surface. Very frustrating to have enough cold air in place for once and a great surface low track, yet no moisture.
We seriously can't do anything right.
NCSNOW
Member
We need legitimate precip to overwhelm the shallow above freezing layer near the surface. Very frustrating to have enough cold air in place for once and a great surface low track, yet no moisture.
We seriously can't do anything right.
Yea all we talked about is timing a Lp and the cold just right once. Been drowning for months everytime a system rolls through. Finally get it timed right and its the lack of qpf that seals our fate. Just horrendous luck. I would say Im ready for next winter, but seems like I said that last year lol, and look where it got us.
We seriously can't do anything right.
Yea all we talked about is timing a Lp and the cold just right once. Been drowning for months everytime a system rolls through. Finally get it timed right and its the lack of qpf that seals our fate. Just horrendous luck. I would say Im ready for next winter, but seems like I said that last year lol, and look where it got us.
Must be nice!!
good lord the nam dried up. this one is toast.
Dried up or not it would be cold rain. Check the 3k NAM for more moisture.
Nomanslandva
Member
Northern stream energy at H5 has shifted north a bunch in the last 3 runs. One more shift like that and this is a DC clipper
Euro trended a little wetter for NC/VA boarder counties and I think sounding supported some snow. Maybe this one trending north will suck our coastal in a little?Nomanslandva
Member
Also, WTH? 3km vs. 12km. Same time and run. But very much different.Northern stream energy at H5 has shifted north a bunch in the last 3 runs. One more shift like that and this is a DC clipper
Well, Icon did increase precip but temps are in the upper 30s
Brad P. has issued a code 1 social media talk for Charlotte metro snow system Thursday. Says some flakes poss.
would be fitting to see precip improve as we see our 2m temps trend in the wrong direction.
RAH has also mentioned the possibility:
Weather Highlights/Hazards: Considerable mid-high clouds Wed will
thicken and lower Wed night-early Thu, with the approach of the nrn
stream shortwave trough now over the nrn Rockies. Virga will also
become widespread over cntl NC through the same time; and some of
that precipitation will likely overcome an otherwise dry sub-cloud
layer and reach the ground over mainly srn NC by Thu morning.
Thermal profiles and partial thickness values support primarily
(light) rain, particularly where precipitation is most likely to
reach the ground across srn NC. However, freezing levels across the
remainder of the Piedmont are forecast to be around 1000 ft AGL, so
it would be possible for a few flurries to mix with the light rain
or sprinkles should they fall with enough intensity and reach ground
and consequently, diabatically cool the shallow above freezing layer
above the surface there. This would be a no accumulation/impact non-
event should that even occur.
✌??
Without seeing the soundings, that looks like a wet snow look to me N of US-64.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Downeastnc
Member
Would need rates to be decent I imagine.....which given the QPF is unlikely.....probably sprinkles with a maybe a few flakes mixing in in the heaviest showers.....still plenty of time for this to trend better.
Nomanslandva
Member
What a difference in one run of the NAM. Still kind of big differences between the 12km and 3 km. Guess there is still a long way to go with this one.
Here’s the 3km
NCSNOW
Member
Gonna be some black ice in the a.m.,fog is supper thick andbtemps falling like a rock. Itll look like it snowed at sunrise tommorow with the frost
Kinda anxious to see what the NAM shows in 4 more hours
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nothing... What a surprise!
Downeastnc
Member
LOL yeah this is gonna be one of those expect the worse hope for the best, looks like any real chance though will be western NC and the foothills....one would think eventually at some point we got to get one of these systems that over performs....it has not snowed here since Dec 9th 2018, one of the longer snow droughts in recent memory for sure....
packfan98
Moderator
Bone dry.... you know your winter has sucked when you can't even get one solid "you've been NAM'd".That's the 0z run. Here's the 12z:
FWIW the 3km has much more moisture
ICON had more moisture as well temps still too warm
ICON had more moisture as well temps still too warm
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Nomanslandva
Member
12 Z EURO is drier through 18Z Thursday than 00Z. So probs time for any of us holding out to jump to the Feb story!
