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Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
We can work with this. Honestly it's the best it's looked. I like the trends so far today
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Just look at the changes in the gfs from 00z last night. Trends even from 12z are night and day. Still plenty of time to trend better too.
More drastic changes for the late week system as well.
850’s are solid even down into upstate SC but that’s not even half the battle. I don’t like this one. It’s a pity because these weak waves provide us an opportunity for an all snow event..but I just don’t think we’ve got all the pieces here. It reminds me of a January 2011 track but with insufficient cold. It’s a shame
sounding isn’t bad if we can get some heavier rates overhead.
What a mess @500
I’m not sure what the GFS is trying to do with next weekend’s system. It’s an absolute mess this run..and only 5 days away ??
Gfs might go bonkers. Lmao.
If only it had enough time to go negative right there..oh well, I can confidently say that Vort progression will not occur that way again lol
Edit. Never mind. Lol wth was that?
CMC trends
I think getting heavier rates is ultimately going to be the deciding factor. This reminds me a bit of March 2017. I remember then seeing temperatures in the lower 50s the day before and not believing there was anyway the models I was looking at were correct that we’re giving me 1-3 inches. That system came in late at night/very early morning and what started as a 39 degree drizzle changed very quickly to a 32-33 heavy wet snow that put down close to 3 inches in MBY. It can only be good that models are right now trying to bring this in at the coldest time of the day
Overall didn’t like what I saw with 0z. Time is ticking and cmc went from light snow accumulations to none for Thursday here. Maybe it will come back north. Need king euro to save us or I’m ready to throw in the towel for Thursday system.
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Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Can't do that after one model run man.
12z UK 
00z
00z
I will say though the CMC didn’t have an expansive precip shield I did like how it was colder.
No shortage of storms with marginal temps late in the run on the GFS..we’re going to need more help than usual
ajr
Member
Too much pulling on that bit of energy over Iowa, couldn't dig as well it seems.
Gefs still looks good 
Well the HRRR has been consistent in popping some big time storms over the Charlotte area moving south eastward into SC ... what would these storms entail??
NCCWOP9077
Member
Nothing to hang your hat on, but 00z ECMWF spits out some snow for the NC mountains and a small sliver of snow/mixed precip in southern NC.
Sent from my SM-J727U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-J727U using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the 0z EPS. Most impressive run yet for the US HWY 74 corridor. Certainly a decent chance of some light snow in parts of south-central NC and upstate SC.
pretty encouraged to see the 6z gfs improve over 00z with some more precip, and the nam (albeit the long range) continues to show more precip over northern sc/southern nc. can't help but love where we are sitting 72hrs out as we hope for the precip shield to expand northwest. would much rather be hoping for rates to overcome 2m temps with plenty cold 850s than the other way around.
6z euro. I don't have the 6z EPS
Temps were good/close for many just need more precip
However, still, plenty of time to worry about precip
Temps were good/close for many just need more precip
However, still, plenty of time to worry about precip
I've noticed the NAM tends to over amp at first with precipitation then gets drier as the event gets closer anybody else noticed this?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This longstanding tendency isn't necessarily true in the more recent "upgraded" versions of the model.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
While some of this is probably virga (verbatim), I'd gladly take this.
I've noticed it too but I saw someone yesterday say that these systems tend to overperform more than not so maybe its right.
I forgot about the upgrade. I hope it helps. I'd love to have the total Namm'ed snow it's showed me in the last ten years lol Thanks Webb
Dumping fatty flakes at Wolf Ridge Ski Resort in NC. You can view at resortcams.com.
Do you think this has some similarities to the March 2017 event??
NCSNOW
Member
If you want to still live in the south and enjoy Snow. Heres the place to be, atleast this morning it is.
www.resortcams.com
Beech Mountain Resort Summit Cam - Resort Cams
Located at an elevation of 5,506 feet on the deck of the Skybar, this Beech Mountain webcam gives a great view of the ski resort and surrounding mountains.
www.resortcams.com
NCSNOW
Member
Hatley Pointe web cam on ResortCams.com - Resort Cams
Hatley Pointe is located in Mars Hill and Wolf Laurel, North Carolina and this LIVE web cam is located at the base of the ski resort and lodge.
www.resortcams.com
Thank Goodness for these resort cams. Only way we get to expeirence snow anymore lol
Is this better? 12z nam
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The wave axis continues to sharpen/intensify in later runs, also noticing the strung out s/w over the northern Plains diving towards the base of the trough more quickly.
The top of Grandfather looks amazing right now..check that cam outIf you want to still live in the south and enjoy Snow. Heres the place to be, atleast this morning it is.
Beech Mountain Resort Summit Cam - Resort Cams
Located at an elevation of 5,506 feet on the deck of the Skybar, this Beech Mountain webcam gives a great view of the ski resort and surrounding mountains.
Drscottsmith
Member
Awesome. I will be keeping that Beech Cam open on my computer at work today.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is nothing like the March 2017 event, which was a clipper that got suppressed due to a nice 50-50 low. This system is southern-stream centric oth and will be moisture starved. 4-5 days out most of us were looking at the potential for possibly a light-moderate hit in Mar 2017.
We were seeing EPS runs like this 4-5 days out.
nam with a bit less moisture than earlier runs.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you're hoping for snow in NC, this is not a trend you'd want to see pan out in NWP. The northern stream wave separating and getting out in front of our main s/w over the Gulf coast squashes our weak low pressure system further offshore, limits lift across the area, and forces the main axis of light snow towards the mid-Atlantic. We really want to root for that wave over Iowa & Missouri to phase w/ the southern stream sooner and dig further south, which would focus more CVA into NC instead of VA.
