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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
The thing I like is the cold is getting closer over time. Most models now show dew points dropping into the teens across the SE after day 6. We got to get it cold first....
Stormlover
Member
Not this season there hasn't been
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
As long as we have something showing up on the ensemble means, I think we are in great shape.
Yea no great pattern has existed beyond 240hr this winter/Fall. And not sure if snow depth maps make much sense to post for this Saturday it’s gonna be mixing a lot if there is any winter weather. Not ideal for snow but more so sleet or ice.
Pattern looks to flip and things look promising for sure as we end Jan but the GEFS EPO bias is beyond aggravating. About the only model we can trust in the extended is the EPS. Can't really take the GEFS day 11-15 forecast seriously.
Agreed. Still looks better than those bright red colors all over the east coast, though. Hopefully, the EPS will come around soon. It will have to, if the EPO is really going to dive.
Oh january
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Gfs 12z has a nice big snow storm for the south East in fantasy range ... things just keep looking exciting
CFS d10 was good last night ??
??
??And even with that bias correction this still looks really really good. Probably the best looking pattern since maybe 2014. If this is even close to being right and we strike out on an event than we suck. Nobody sucks that bad.
GFS was decent towards the end..??
is that a MCS on the end of the HRRR ? shear/MUcape is supportive of one on it, wata 
Get that southern piece out ahead of the northern piece a little bit more and BOOOOM!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That looks a bit troublesome.
probably wont be since its mostly reliant on weak amounts of MUCAPE and will stay elevated, but this just aint right for january, z500 vort map would really tell whether there's a MCV in there which unfortunately is only on tidbits which is down
Maybe if this is posted enough this year, it will be true because I’m done refuting it.
I’m not sure I follow, Arcc.
I highly doubt there would be a winter storm during the first cold surge next week. Time is closing in now, and there hasn't been any solid consistency of a winter storm on the GFS or the Euro. I'm officially writing off a significant winter storm for next week. And honestly, I'm so glad I did not fall for all the "noise" from the ensembles. If the ensembles showed that kind of snow like we've been seeing in a 5-7 day window instead, I'd take it more serious. There needs to be time for things to "adjust" within the pattern if that makes sense. We would have a better chance at scoring a winter storm during transitions from moderation of temps to cold surges, not soon as a strong cold surge takes place. However, sometimes we do get lucky and score a winter storm as soon as a cold surge takes place. I'm just going with what normally ends up happening instead of following a "fine line."
Looking at today's 12z GFS 500mb, this does not look good for winter storm development next week if you ask me if this 500mb pattern holds true. Massive ridge to the north with a strong high pushing south from Canada. We'll have the cold, but as I've been saying, the southern branch will most likely become less active and suppressed during the first cold surge. There could be a chance of minor frozen precipitation with that system on the 24th at the onset. The high pressure rushes east before that system gets kicked out. That is not ideal for a massive widespread winter storm, for CAD, yes. I have a good feeling for the last week this month for a winter storm. So, I'm going all IN for the last week.
Looking at today's 12z GFS 500mb, this does not look good for winter storm development next week if you ask me if this 500mb pattern holds true. Massive ridge to the north with a strong high pushing south from Canada. We'll have the cold, but as I've been saying, the southern branch will most likely become less active and suppressed during the first cold surge. There could be a chance of minor frozen precipitation with that system on the 24th at the onset. The high pressure rushes east before that system gets kicked out. That is not ideal for a massive widespread winter storm, for CAD, yes. I have a good feeling for the last week this month for a winter storm. So, I'm going all IN for the last week.