Initial push of waa and a little fgen over a solid cad air...sneaky sneaky
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
This has trended south, actually spits out a dusting along the border.... Not expecting much but we've all seen that waa and fgen start a little earlier then prog and even over perform a tadInitial push of waa and a little fgen over a solid cad air...sneaky sneaky
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Ashe, Watauga, Alleghany NC certainly already in the game for winter weather advisory for Saturday morning system. Any ice meets criteria
Hour 180-186 snow shower chance on the OBX
- Today, the PNA at -1.93 is the most negative for any day in over 9 years assuming this obvious error:
2019 1 9 0.348
2019 1 10 -2.051
2019 1 11 0.686
- Today's AO at +4.7 is the most positive in winter in over 3 years
- Yesterday's phase 5 MJO is the strongest in winter in over 30 years
- It only gets much better from a SE cold lover's standpoint from here (it couldn't have gotten much worse, of course).
- If the cold lovers can handle getting through this combo of indices (along with a solid +NAO and a falling but still +EPO), they should be able to handle anything. What doesn't kill someone makes that person stronger. I'd bet heavily that the combo of indices will not be this bad for the rest of our lives, including even the young folk.
2019 1 9 0.348
2019 1 10 -2.051
2019 1 11 0.686
- Today's AO at +4.7 is the most positive in winter in over 3 years
- Yesterday's phase 5 MJO is the strongest in winter in over 30 years
- It only gets much better from a SE cold lover's standpoint from here (it couldn't have gotten much worse, of course).
- If the cold lovers can handle getting through this combo of indices (along with a solid +NAO and a falling but still +EPO), they should be able to handle anything. What doesn't kill someone makes that person stronger. I'd bet heavily that the combo of indices will not be this bad for the rest of our lives, including even the young folk.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
12z GFS looks as if its going to try again with the same wave as yesterday with the afternoon runs, its just slower and there might be ridging for it to try to go north.
In reality you should be biting at ensembles and nibbling at operationals
Looks better organized and strong indicator the STJ is remaining healthy despite the freezer box dropping down. Increases the chances that if we do see a winter storm some areas could be measuring in the 1-2 feet range in this type of pattern.
I’m not a big believer in ensembles, but in this case I’ll say “Go with the ensembles” because it’s a mess
BamWx!
In their video this morning no good news maybe 10 days to two weeks cold at best. there will be no cold air source PV going back to the other side of the globe, we chasing a ghost -EPO. It’s been 15 days away all winter he said.
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In their video this morning no good news maybe 10 days to two weeks cold at best. there will be no cold air source PV going back to the other side of the globe, we chasing a ghost -EPO. It’s been 15 days away all winter he said.
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Winter Storm breaking out Alabama/Miss
Basically my thoughts. No prolonged favorable pattern. We’ve got to make this brief period count imoBamWx!
In their video this morning no good news maybe 10 days to two weeks cold at best. there will be no cold air source PV going back to the other side of the globe, we chasing a ghost -EPO. It’s been 15 days away all winter he said.
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High slides East, heavy rain East with intial mix.
Perfect track for MBY on the 12z gfs . Need LOtS of help with temps
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Good job
GeorgiaGirl
Member
My guess from earlier 500 mb maps on this run is that the random ridge in the middle of the US trapped some of the energy. But the GFS is taking a while to load it and my computer is freezing too much so I can't just look in detail right now.
This run may've been pretty good if the energy didn't hold back for so long, by the time it's moving the high has decayed and its not as cold. What a shame with where the LP is positioned.
Edit: or was positioned because I guess that ridge lets the LP come north.
Edit2: GFS decides to jump the low pressure around actually. Maybe having convection problems...
This run may've been pretty good if the energy didn't hold back for so long, by the time it's moving the high has decayed and its not as cold. What a shame with where the LP is positioned.
Edit: or was positioned because I guess that ridge lets the LP come north.
Edit2: GFS decides to jump the low pressure around actually. Maybe having convection problems...
I think there is multiple shots of cold, and multiple chances in this pattern. Its going to be very difficult for ANY model, and even ENS to see whats up in the mid to long range. It does appear we will have a lot of energy flying around. Could that make the PAC a mess.....YES, but could also take some good timing (when doesn't it) and we have a big winter storm. Either way, The mid to longer range looks NOTHING like the crap we are in right now.
Something looks off with GFS, heavy convection everywhere both sides of the Apps. Hr264