Nomanslandva
Member
06Z GFS looked more like a coastal but still had a little low in eastern KY screwing things up. I was not real impressed with the EPS for the weekend system this run either.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Fountainguy97
Member
This was posted over on Tenn forum on American.
This is the UK for the minor mid week system in a couple days
This is the UK for the minor mid week system in a couple days
So it looks like the UKMET is much colder. I'm not sure how it does with temps, I've always used it just for storm tracks and ideas. Interesting. Is that radar simulation possibly virga, though?
baroowoofr
Member
Here's my full post from over there, some ensemble members and the NAM see it too, to an extent:
Midweek UKMET:
Euro not too far off:
but a little too warm
It's in NAM range now too:
Some EPS ensemble support for north of 40 and elevations on teh plateau and NE TN/ SW VA:
6z GEFS:
A Met over in the SE (Americanwx) was saying earlier in the week not to sleep on this one, since the only thing keeping from being at least a little snow storm (2-4 type deal, my guess not the Met's) was that the vort was not holding together on models at range.
Local news weather is not mentioning it at all and that is an important, but often overlooked component for us, (well at last for my superstitions, lol) Gotta have it something like this be a little sneaky, to maintain tradition.
Midweek UKMET:
Euro not too far off:
but a little too warm
It's in NAM range now too:
Some EPS ensemble support for north of 40 and elevations on teh plateau and NE TN/ SW VA:
6z GEFS:
A Met over in the SE (Americanwx) was saying earlier in the week not to sleep on this one, since the only thing keeping from being at least a little snow storm (2-4 type deal, my guess not the Met's) was that the vort was not holding together on models at range.
Local news weather is not mentioning it at all and that is an important, but often overlooked component for us, (well at last for my superstitions, lol) Gotta have it something like this be a little sneaky, to maintain tradition.
baroowoofr
Member
The UKMET precip amounts spit out a general .20 - .25 of qpf over the TN Valley. But it is at the absolute high end of all guidance right now.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I doubt it’s virga as dark as those hues over WNC are.
This is an interesting one especially for Tn and WNC peeps. Euro always a degree or 2 too warm and honestly we've seen these pieces of energy hold together a little longer than forecast, wouldn't take much for nice little event. 12z should give some better idea, maybeHere's my full post from over there, some ensemble members and the NAM see it too, to an extent:
Midweek UKMET:
Euro not too far off:
but a little too warm
It's in NAM range now too:
Some EPS ensemble support for north of 40 and elevations on teh plateau and NE TN/ SW VA:
6z GEFS:
A Met over in the SE (Americanwx) was saying earlier in the week not to sleep on this one, since the only thing keeping from being at least a little snow storm (2-4 type deal, my guess not the Met's) was that the vort was not holding together on models at range.
Local news weather is not mentioning it at all and that is an important, but often overlooked component for us, (well at last for my superstitions, lol) Gotta have it something like this be a little sneaky, to maintain tradition.
It wouldn't completely shock me if someone out our way managed a snowflake out of this one.
I would be shocked if I saw accumulating snow this week. I don’t think a lot of precip survives over the MTN and what does may skip East a little in the form of cold rain.
Yeah the 0z euro soundings weren't terrible. If we wetbulbed we would only have 950 to the surface above freezing that might be just enough. Weird having BL issues instead of a warm nose
Gfs is making these types of jumps inside 100 hours, soundings from CLT north was so close if you wet bulb, just 925s are so borderline 
I like how it now puts some of that northern branch energy in the southern energy to consolidate it. You would think if we can just get it strong enough to precipitate heavy enough to cool the BL we could see some flakes
Sounding isn't bad and very similar to the euro with below 950 being the bugaboo if we fully wetbulbed. With the weak ne flow if we got into steady precip we might get lucky
Attachments
Yea looks more like cold rain given low rates and spotty moisture. The jumping is not resulting in snow it’s lack of cold air and heavy wall to wall moisture.
Here's my full post from over there, some ensemble members and the NAM see it too, to an extent:
Midweek UKMET:
Euro not too far off:
but a little too warm
It's in NAM range now too:
Some EPS ensemble support for north of 40 and elevations on teh plateau and NE TN/ SW VA:
6z GEFS:
A Met over in the SE (Americanwx) was saying earlier in the week not to sleep on this one, since the only thing keeping from being at least a little snow storm (2-4 type deal, my guess not the Met's) was that the vort was not holding together on models at range.
Local news weather is not mentioning it at all and that is an important, but often overlooked component for us, (well at last for my superstitions, lol) Gotta have it something like this be a little sneaky, to maintain tradition.
bear with me guys, in a lot of shoulder pain/muscle spasm but.. from the data presented here:
It looks like the Euro was less robust with the wave/surface low presentation, therefore the precipitation is basically drying up as it crossing over the apps. The UKMET and multple members are showing a situation of more precipitation able to continue and cool the air down...
I'm assuming here, just based off these images, you might want a stronger wave.
FFC mentions possible snowflake in the higher elevations for midweek system, and does throw a bone (of sorts) at next weekend. Many of us are getting desperate for something to track!! ???
.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Extended period forecast doesn`t differ much from the previous
package. Active weather pattern is in place with cool air mass,
and rainfall events every 2-3 days.
First round of activity expected to move in late Tuesday and
Wednesday as fast-moving wave traverses the area. Models continue
to show potential for cold air wedge pattern to set up prior to
main onset of precip, with the potential for mixed winter precip
over portions of mainly northeast Georgia Wednesday morning. For
now, have mentioned rain or snow in weather grids for just a few
hours. No accumulations are expected at this time given the very
low QPF and drier lower-levels.
Brief sunny conditions are expected Thursday before next wave
brings rain again to the area on Friday. Have kept forecast pops
lower than populated guidance given the difference in the extended
models. As with the mid-week event, there is a chance for mixed
winter precip early Friday in the higher elevations with cold air
in place as moisture moves in. No accumulations expected at this
time.
High temperatures through the period are generally near
climatology, or slightly lower. Min temperatures are generally 4-8
degrees above normal through through the week.
31
.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Extended period forecast doesn`t differ much from the previous
package. Active weather pattern is in place with cool air mass,
and rainfall events every 2-3 days.
First round of activity expected to move in late Tuesday and
Wednesday as fast-moving wave traverses the area. Models continue
to show potential for cold air wedge pattern to set up prior to
main onset of precip, with the potential for mixed winter precip
over portions of mainly northeast Georgia Wednesday morning. For
now, have mentioned rain or snow in weather grids for just a few
hours. No accumulations are expected at this time given the very
low QPF and drier lower-levels.
Brief sunny conditions are expected Thursday before next wave
brings rain again to the area on Friday. Have kept forecast pops
lower than populated guidance given the difference in the extended
models. As with the mid-week event, there is a chance for mixed
winter precip early Friday in the higher elevations with cold air
in place as moisture moves in. No accumulations expected at this
time.
High temperatures through the period are generally near
climatology, or slightly lower. Min temperatures are generally 4-8
degrees above normal through through the week.
31
GFS really juiced up for next weekend
baroowoofr
Member
Yeah, I think this one will be a game time decision type of thing. See how well it all holds together. Hope for a surprise, but also acknowledge that the fizzle out solution is on the table
GFS sure was close to a absolute bomb for mountains of WNC and NE Tennessee. Still a solid wrap around for those areas with probably 4-6 inches. This needs to keep up so I can take my first trip to Maggie Valley.
Probably no snow because precip is not into 850s that are below freezing in NC and 0C 925s but still to far south, and the GFS has been trending to more interaction from the northern stream that’s why it’s jumping, cold rain is likely but snow is still possible, can always wet bulb to a better sounding
Wrap around looks good 0z Sunday on GFS. Warning criteria snows. Heavy rates. Mtns only.
Not really too warm 5 to 10 degrees. No ski resort wants to see another heavy rain event and temps above freezing day and night. Their gains keep getting washed away. Wrap around as shown could easily be 6”+ given what I’m seeing.
I'm changing the "Dislike" button to a neutral action, because I'm not sure it's understood that a dislike removes reputation points from people's score.
Edit: Changed, dislike away.
Edit: Changed, dislike away.
CMC is better for all of western NC and outside mtns north of i40. Temps borderline. Thurs.
Triad cities to Raleigh should like cmc has potential there for snow showers. Back to northern foothills too.
CMC is getting close to something better at H5, getting closer to phasing them, if that was to occur a better swath of snow would be likely 
ATLwxfan
Member
I don’t believe this is mountains only ... look at the strong feed into NC and temps are plenty cold enough to get good snow showers .. snow showers for a lot of NC if that verifies .. probably no accumulations but we will take it
This is the closest some of us have been to a potential winter storm all year. I would think we would need that big low over the NE Atlantic to lift out a little quicker. With any other and I actually mean every other winter storm threat that usually happens and we are watching the inevitable north trend.
Snowed In
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Ok guys. Let’s control the banter posts and there’s a February thread to use for those threats and discussions.
NCSNOW
Member
CMC had mid week deal last night on oz run. Been in church all morning and see ukmet and few others showing this now. CMC keeps stepping up its game.
Euro cooler for mid week system Still not much tho