Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[John1122]

Quite a few big hitters on the EPS. #16 and #45 I believe were the ones with some south of I-20 magic. But there was a good member or two for virtually everyone from Memphis and Alexandria Louisiana to Charleston and Norfolk on there.

Western NC will be the big winner on the ensemble mean.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Back to the shorter term, a 594 dm ridge right off the coast looks likely today, that is plain stupid, and not to mention the PWATs between 1.4-1.6, which is something you see in August

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Quite a few big hitters on the EPS. #16 and #45 I believe were the ones with some south of I-20 magic. But there was a good member or two for virtually everyone from Memphis and Alexandria Louisiana to Charleston and Norfolk on there.

Western NC will be the big winner on the ensemble mean.

Alright who’s got the euro ensembles ? Let’s see them

 

[John1122]

Alright who’s got the euro ensembles ? Let’s see them

This is member 16.

 

[John1122]

27 was a big dog. There were a few blanks of course but a lot of members had something.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS is headed towards a miller A setup that some of the GEFS ensembles show, solid miller A pattern, and the ensemble members that show that type of setup are noice

 

[John1122]

GFS keeps squashing things but it goes cold after the cutter Saturday and mostly stays there. Stout blocking in the Pac NW.

 

[John1122]

Giant western ridge is too far East so the trough orients to chill E Canada and New England. Something close to an East based -NAO is taking shape though.

 

[NCSNOW]

Heat Wave ends here Thursday night. Low back down in 30's, High Friday at 50. Crawls downward afterwards , forecast High low 40;s by Monday. Bottom line , pattern will have flipped by January 18th!

 

[SNOWMANN]

Also if you look at the Gfs as it continues out u can see how we have endless possibility’s as a massive arctic shot looks to be headed down for us after our third possible winter wave

Yeah there's opportunity for some but those big highs never pan out hardly.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Invariably this suppressed look is going to trend north. You and I both know that. This reeks of January 2014.


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[accu35]

Heres my north trend

 

[Storm5]

Invariably this suppressed look is going to trend north. You and I both know that. This reeks of January 2014.


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Just not the cold airmass that followed


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[Meteorologist1999]

Just not the cold airmass that followed


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I would say if Snow and Ice accumulate models will drop temps after storm moves through.

 

[NCCWOP9077]

FYI, 06z GEFS is delayed per Ryan Maue, they are trying to resolve the issue ASAP

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[Storm5]

I would say if Snow and Ice accumulate models will drop temps after storm moves through.

Right but we highs down in the mid to low 20s after the 2014 storm . That won’t happen here


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[SNOWMANN]

I know everybody needs a diffrent recipe for there back yard. But the ingredients are there I'd like to see more of a ensemble spread instead off one or two big dogs skewing the mean. Threading the needle like always.

 

[Rain Cold]

I know everybody needs a diffrent recipe for there back yard. But the ingredients are there I'd like to see more of a ensemble spread instead off one or two big dogs skewing the mean. Threading the needle like always.

Yeah, that's a good point. We have a tendency, myself included, to drool over a big mean or an individual member that shows 2+ feet of snow. But the truth is, you want a really good spread of members showing some snow, with a couple of big ones scattered in there. That tells you that A, the pattern is really favorable for winter weather, and B, there is the possibility for more than just a run-of-the-mill car-topper.

 

[SD]

Right but we highs down in the mid to low 20s after the 2014 storm . That won’t happen here


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Speaking in absolutes I see

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[SNOWMANN]

Yeah, that's a good point. We have a tendency, myself included, to drool over a big mean or an individual member that shows 2+ feet of snow. But the truth is, you want a really good spread of members showing some snow, with a couple of big ones scattered in there. That tells you that A, the pattern is really favorable for winter weather, and B, there is the possibility for more than just a run-of-the-mill car-topper.

It's pretty to look at but the intuitive part says wait a minute. Get some op agreement for a couple days then I'll bite right now I'm just guna nibble