ICON hammers WNC next weekend..great track
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
GFS is much improved this run. The energy is there. I’m not sure it’s going to get bundled and cranking enough for a bis SE storm. At 159 it’s close.
packfan98
Moderator
Through 168 the 850’s are a little warm it seems. Mountains look to score.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Remarkable how close the LP placement is on the GFS and icon. Almost lock step.
I would wager against the ICON. Temps too warm I doubt we go from 40s rain to 33 snow. Poss but any unfavorable track trend would even be cold rain in Boone NC.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Precip never gets back to the mountains.
packfan98
Moderator
Maybe a Norfolk special this run based on what I’m seeing. Most of the mid-Atlantic misses out. Probably will hit the northeast.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Icon struggles mightily with surface temps. Usually way too warm.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Should be some woof woofs on the ensembles.
Still looks like a cold rain to me. Other guidance is fairly warm too. Setup doesn’t look favorable for snow.
ICON is definitely warm biased with surface temperatures ... we just need things to cool down a BIT and a big snowstorm for many .. I think we definitely have some good wiggle room for this to happen
GFS basically whiffed on high elevations in WNC that actually supported snow that run
Need the GFS to trend 10 degrees cooler within 150hrs. Icon or not, the setup is there for a cold rain event too for the majority East of the mtns.
Wasn’t it the ICON that first sniffed out the snow last April?
Need more NB energy and cold but that was an improvement.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
yep, the GFS would have supported snow there if it were to come out like what I saw from the ICON with heavy precip getting over there. 850s are there and it wouldn't take a lot.
Nerman
Member
Not sure I'm buying what the GFS is selling here...
cmc trended less moisture and East. Not a big event for western NC this run.but cold was there
Yeah. With a track like that, climo would win for many areas. Especially those with elevation. We just don’t want that Low to tug inland with already marginal 850’s. Verbatim, I would take my chances with this one
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
If you’re looking for a snowstorm west of I-77 in NC, the 12Z suite is your friend, pending the euro.
The potential is there for a HECS event but need to see some favorable trends SOON. Below is the CMC, it would not take much of a location error to thump NC with wind and 6-12”+. 
Clem282340
Member
Could the upstate get in on the action as well
The CMC focuses on a different, earlier storm, same one it had winter weather in NC at 0Z last night. It pushes the GFS storm east and OTS
Yes. Signal is there for a strong storm to rule anyone out. This isn’t the typical light event pattern...the STJ has been and continues to show signs of producing strong storms for the s/e.
ATLwxfan
Member
The reality is a few tweaks can get us a solid mountain or upper south event. Us I-20 folks need an alignment of the stars and a consistent signal. As it stands right now we’ve got little to hang out hats on through the first quarter of February. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
I20 will have to wait and hope like all hell we can score in Feb . Thank god the TN and NC mountains are far away . Traveling might be our best bet this year
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
cd2play
Member
I think outside of the mountains the rest of us, as far as January is concerned, might as well go ahead, and snap the ball, take a knee, and head to the locker room, and hope February has Mahomes as QB.
RollTide18
Member
I still think there's potential for wraparound snow for I-20 areas and south.
NoSnowATL
Member
I love the faith but it’s hard to see anything promising for the I-20 folks. We need to see some block and cold air in place. The MJO looks bad LR and the PV isn’t helping.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
tennessee storm
Member
Going take a young Tom Brady comeback Be more like it. Said young tom
Brady now lol
pcbjr
Member
Will go with a simple Kyle Trask ... and win ...
NCSNOW
Member
I posted about this yesterday. Icon is locked in. 3 runs in a row now. It isnt uncommon for it to show rain at the 520 line, let alone 540. Dont dismiss the icon. It nailed Dec 2018 from over a week out.
SimeonNC
Member
What does the GEFS look like
Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
Y’all take your banter and baseless predictions to the Whamby thread please.
Made it to our cabin in gatlinburg and it is beautiful! Having a nice little snow shower right now!
We had to wait forever on 2015 watching TN get rocked for two weeks but it paid off IMBY and I think that was the last few days of February.
Euro looks like a phase is coming up