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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Ilovesnow28 said:
As much as I want to get excited about the potential for the southeast seeing a winter storm (BIG IF) my excitement won't raise until I see the western areas of the southeast and I-20 areas get in the game from Dallas eastward
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But climatology speaking, how often do we see a widespread snowstorm like that? The last one I can recall is 2014.
 
This near normal is more likely to verify imo than that previous weeks 3-4 outlook, which was cold in the SE. Also, note that the CFS is now mild in the SE for the 1st half of Feb, which I think was a primary influence, and no longer is cold for Feb overall. I still think that the best shot at sustained cold will be somewhere within 2/20-3/20:

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GFS is a little further north with the southern slider this run. Looks to give the SC/NC coastal regions some love or rain???

EDIT - Small footprint of snow between Wilmington and Hatteras.
 
Not a bad look. GFS buried the energy in the southwest this run so not a huge SE storm like the 12z.
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wow said:
That's at hour 336.
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Yes. That's where the 12z had a big SE storm. Looks like the hits keep on coming. That energy that was held back is finally coming at hr 384. Looks like it will be too warm this run. Hit parade of storms. We need to get some folks in the SE on the board!
 
There is an overwhelming arguement we should have a true ,solid miller A late next week into the weekend coming up out of the gulf. The players that will be on the field to make this happen start showing up in 6 days. Bottom line the signal is there in prime climo.
Problem is obviously gonna be BL/Temps. MBY will be right up against the door leading to the frozen goods, highly likely on the outside of the door looking in. The silver lining is I can be 3,000ft up in a 95 minute drive. I never chase snow, always just wait every year for what nature throws my way. But its been a long time since Dec 2018. Getting ancy, with only about a 6 week window left.
So I am increasing my target area beyond the Back Yard. Gotta change tactics, if it want come to me, I may have to go to it.
 
NCSNOW said:
There is an overwhelming arguement we should have a true ,solid miller A late next week into the weekend coming up out of the gulf. The players that will be on the field to make this happen start showing up in 6 days. Bottom line the signal is there in prime climo.
Problem is obviously gonna be BL/Temps. MBY will be right up against the door leading to the frozen goods, highly likely on the outside of the door looking in. The silver lining is I can be 3,000ft up in a 95 minute drive. I never chase snow, always just wait every year for what nature throws my way. But its been a long time since Dec 2018. Getting ancy, with only about a 6 week window left.
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There is nothing worse than being on a cusp of a major snowstorm. I have been burned so many times being south of I-85. Watching heavy snow falling 15 miles north of you- while I end up with slop. It's been pretty miserable, to say the least. I hope we can all score with this pattern. If I can manage 6 inches of snow, I will be more than happy.
 
The only way non-mountain and foothill areas are going to get a winter storm out of this pattern is if a storm bombs out and becomes a pseudo-50/50 low and another southern stream system comes in on its heels. If you don't see that, it ain't gonna snow big, unless the models are completely wrong with the PV placement in central Canada or north of that.
 
My PTO was entered on Tuesday, waiting until the middle of next week before schedule clearing starts. As CR stated, non-elevation and interior SE need a lot to change, but the players are at-least on the field for a major east coast blizzard if these parcels can time it right.
 
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I was defiantly wrong on the active southern stream weakening at some point this winter. As WeatherNC stated, the risks go up for a east coast blizzard. Strong winds and very heavy precipitation. One storm could still make Van Denton’s winter forecast (1-4 feet) look good.
 
Accuweather: The period from February through March can be very stormy as building warmth from the strengthening sun and warming air in the southern parts of the U.S. can meet up with lingering cold across the northern part of the nation. Based on average, it is generally easier for snow to fall over the next six weeks when compared to the prior 12 weeks as the upper levels of the atmosphere are quite cold and water temperatures are generally at their lowest point of the year.
 
packfan98 said:
Yes. That's where the 12z had a big SE storm. Looks like the hits keep on coming. That energy that was held back is finally coming at hr 384. Looks like it will be too warm this run. Hit parade of storms. We need to get some folks in the SE on the board!
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We have had a parade of systems since November and rain at least once a week since then. The precip hasn't been the problem. Unless we get the cold and the precip at the same time, it is just going to be more of the same.
 
Upslope still looks interesting for Sunday, and I remember it did on the Euro too, so maybe you could at least go catch some good upslope in the mountains if you want to go.
 
I’m not sure I’m buying that fast little piece of energy entering the border of BC and Washington state...that’s why it ran the apps...looked like it was moving in fast motion when it entered the CONUS..toss
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m not sure I’m buying that fast little piece of energy entering the border of BC and Washington state...that’s why it ran the apps...looked like it was moving in fast motion when it entered the CONUS..toss
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I'm tossing that run too, it's strange to me that it goes from an app runner to a Northeastern coastal storm.
 
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