ULL is over the Rio Grande vs deep Mexico at hour 150 on new doc so far.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
It looks like there's going to be another phase on the 12z Euro. 500mb (vort) actually looks better than it's previous run.
definately an earlier phase this run..
Triple phase this time around? I don't know, the anticipation is building... let's do this!
EURO stretching out the southern piece vs 00z run. It won't look like last nights run.
Storm5
Member
I’m 100 percent pulling for a massive phase that runs inland
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NorthGaWinter4
Member
To make it’s own cold air?
Night and day differences this run...I figured it would...if the euro doesn't drag its heels on the southern piece, then its going to be a big phaser. This run, not so much.
Yeah, also that southern piece was already a good bit north over the SW much earlier in the run compared to last night’s Euro.
Storm5
Member
Great run for the northeast
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Philly gets buried..all is right in the weather world
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I hate to be the one to temper the excitement, but like the CMC, the EURO sets up for the western trough at the end of the run. Could be transitory--or could be a repeat of the winter so far. Time will tell but there's nothing over the top here to suggest sustained cold in the east.
NBAcentel
Member
I hate to be the one to temper the excitement, but like the CMC, the EURO sets up for the western trough at the end of the run. Could be transitory--or could be a repeat of the winter so far. Time will tell but there's nothing over the top here to suggest sustained cold in the east.
Get this out my face ?, that ugly suppressed ridge south of AK and a -PNA, looks transient tho based off this image
Out to 240 @ 12Z : Untill the next Run!
This looks beefed up
packfan98
Moderator
Quite a good run for NW of the I-85 corridor. Looks like a legit chance within 10 days and another potential in the 14 day time period. The city charts could be fun in a little while.
I didn't look much at the 0z EPS after I saw the warmer "trend" being hoisted up everywhere but the 12z EPS run looked solid through the end of the run. This is going to suck if this goes to pot early Feb but this is what we are hoping for.
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s the Euro so I’ll let it slide this time. Good signs for sure.
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I like the look of that trough over AK weakening and the ridging starting to build up towards AK. Even if it is long-range looks very solid like you said.
The last half of Jan looks like it could finish BN for the E/SE with a potential winter storm for the NW areas of the SE. Then we look like we could start off Feb in a favorable pattern...I know a big IF.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
*Insert your favorite mid-late winer +ENSO beefy miller A/"piedmont gradient" snowstorm here*
Major heartbreak seems harder than usual to avoid in a pattern like this if you're in RDU.
NBAcentel
Member
Big phaser wavebreaks and allows a favorable Atlantic/nuetral to -NAO, bring on the big apps runner phaser, I’ll take it for a better pattern
Does the JMA go out to 200 -240? Anyone checked it? Ukmet is 120 I beleive.
Yeah, that would suck but would be better than no threats at all for anyone. Just ready for someone to get on the scoreboard.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Can't go wrong with that sentiment, if I feel so inclined (& works out w/ my schedule), I'd be more than willing to drive a few hours to see a little snow
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Each one of those even have a sharp gradient across the Triad/Nw Piedmont.
The 12z GEFS mean, still showing the low remaining down in the Gulf and not cutting like the 12z GFS OP. This is valid next Saturday AM. (Do you go back 5 hours or 6 hours? I just want to be sure.)
Not seeing any -PNA there. Hug
looks like a prime weekend to hit the slopes..
I'll hold off on picking it apart. Lol if it was the GEFS I wouldn't let it go. It looks ok and I like the look. Just hoping we don't get burned. There have been some hints of a SSWE showing up finally too.
That might be the best mean I’ve seen across the SE this winter, not that it’s really that good, but it beats the turd sandwiches we’ve been dealt all winter to this point.
Are those cold phases for the SE?
I think 1 is but I don’t know about 2-3
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In Feb-Mar, Indian Ocean (phase 2-3) subseasonal forcing favors cold in the SE US