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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

KyloG said:
More of the same

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I remember when Brad Panovich did his winter outlook, he predicted above average temperatures overall for the Piedmont, but also above average snowfall. His reasoning was that all signs pointed to the STJ staying active throughout the season and he just felt that at some point it would meet up with the cold air to bring at least one major winter storm to the area. No doubt that the moisture has been a constant. Hopefully we’re going to actually see the cold air to meet with at peak climo time late January/early February
 
deltadog03 said:
Larry, correct me if I’m wrong, but haven’t you provided data showing if we go into the COD on the left side then that is by far the best phases in winter? Outside of what Webb and others have posted about P7.
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Chris, I just saw this. Good memory. The analysis I did a few years back of January 1975-2014 using KATL as a proxy for the SE had inside left COD as well as a little outside COD phase 8 as the coldest places to be on average in January. I was totally surprised by this. My original study was to see how cold or warm each phase has been outside the COD. When I discovered that being outside averaged warmer than normal when averaging all 8 phases outside, I was initially confused. It was then that I realized that I needed to look inside the COD because that would have to average colder to balance out and sure enough that turned out to be the case. That’s also when I first realized the phases also went inside the COD.

Also, left side outside COD mainly colder than right outside COD, but that was expected. By a good margin, warmest on average was when outside in 4 and 5. But keep in mind that individual cases still varied widely as a lot also depends on other indices. The MJO, just like PNA, EPO, AO, NAO, etc,. is just a guideline though it often has been a rather good guideline.

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Well, I guess congrats? are in order as the last 2 days have had the strongest winter MJO of both phase 4 and phase 5 since the 1980s. This current very high amp is now by a wide margin the second strongest winter 4/5 on record (back to 1975). It hit a whopping 3.43 on 1/11. It may even end up higher once today’s data is released.
 
BufordWX said:
Hoping that I can get a couple of thunderstorms up in my area over the next few days. Behind winter weather a solid thunderstorm is the next best thing for me.
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Very late spring like setup, very unusual to get surface based thunderstorms to fire up for a few afternoons in a row like we may see, hrrr still showing 2000-3000jkg of SBcape in NC/SC tommorow
 
GaWx said:
Chris, I just saw this. Good memory. The analysis I did a few years back of January 1975-2014 using KATL as a proxy for the SE had inside left COD as well as a little outside COD phase 8 as the coldest places to be on average in January. I was totally surprised by this. My original study was to see how cold or warm each phase has been outside the COD. When I discovered that being outside averaged warmer than normal when averaging all 8 phases outside, I was initially confused. It was then that I realized that I needed to look inside the COD because that would have to average colder to balance out and sure enough that turned out to be the case. That’s also when I first realized the phases also went inside the COD.

Also, left side outside COD mainly colder than right outside COD, but that was expected. By a good margin, warmest on average was when outside in 4 and 5. But keep in mind that individual cases still varied widely as a lot also depends on other indices. The MJO, just like PNA, EPO, AO, NAO, etc,. is just a guideline though it often has been a rather good guideline.

*Edited
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Thank you sir! I like what the forecasts are showing for the MJO at the moment.
 
Through hr 180, the GFS looks much better, in the aspect of the Pacific. More ridgeing I’ve BC, in turn stronger HP and most likely no GL low. We’ll see where it goes from there.
 
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