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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
some people claim they don’t hinder a snowstorm setup, but I beg to differ. As do many others
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They do and they don't. I recent years, that feature has in no way aided in southern snow the bulk of the time. It can, under some circumstances, not be a hindrance, but you're going to have to work really really hard to convince me that it helps more than it hurts. About 90% of that feature shows up, a widespread winter storm here happens not. Maybe in a different pattern where there's blocking or something, it may not hurt us. But you can just look at the temp map above and see the effect of its presence.
 
Rain Cold said:
They do and they don't. I recent years, that feature has in no way aided in southern snow the bulk of the time. It can, under some circumstances, not be a hindrance, but you're going to have to work really really hard to convince me that it helps more than it hurts. About 90% of that feature shows up, a widespread winter storm here happens not. Maybe in a different pattern where there's blocking or something, it may not hurt us. But you can just look at the temp map above and see the effect of its presence.
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No phase, split flow, you are going to see something like that there. Is this really thought to be some type of semi permanent thing?
 

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SD said:
No phase, split flow, you are going to see something like that there. Is this really thought to be some type of semi permanent thing?
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I'm not following ya. Sorry man. It's early, I'm off work, and I haven't had coffee yet!

Edit: You saying it's there because there wasn't a phase?
 
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Rain Cold said:
I'm not following ya. Sorry man. It's early, I'm off work, and I haven't had coffee yet!

Edit: You saying it's there because there wasn't a phase?
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I think he is saying that when we do have a phase the GLL has no effect so it is not a permanent or semi permanent thing, depends on other factors
 
MichaelJ said:
I think he is saying that when we do have a phase the GLL has no effect so it is not a permanent or semi permanent thing, depends on other factors
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Oh ok, gotcha. Yeah, when that energy phases in, I get that scenario. And yeah, I didn't mean to indicate it's a permanent feature. But if it's there when the southern stream wave moves by, assuming no phase, with marginal temps, it is going to do more harm than good most of the time.
 
Rain Cold said:
Oh ok, gotcha. Yeah, when that energy phases in, I get that scenario. And yeah, I didn't mean to indicate it's a permanent feature. But if it's there when the southern stream wave moves by, assuming no phase, with marginal temps, it is going to do more harm than good most of the time.
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What you both said. The 0z GFS kept the stream separate and fed nothing into the southern stream like the 18/6z's did, sorry that lakes low thing is just one of those things that grinds my gears.
 
SD said:
I'm surprised the severe threat isn't getting a little more conversation this morning. Pretty stout high shear low cape with winds backing across the Carolinas.
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Yeah that is true I suppose we can’t make a separate thread but could be a pretty nasty line later today
 
Sub 530 thickness across alot of NC as this pup is getting ready to spin up the goods. Ashame it doesnt go out futher. Ever notice the ICON will paint rain as the precipo type all the way to the 520 thickness line, sometimes lower. Thats why its R/S line is always way out of whack (much futher N) than other globals. Thanks for making me look SD! Look at that NS energy coming into the back side of the SS

1579881762514.png
 
One thing is certain, we are about the get very active, with one southern stream wave after another. Maybe we can get lucky, but it's going to require a perfectly-timed phase, I'm afraid. I don't like the chances of that.
 
And yes, that trend shows how bad the GFS is, that’s absurd and terrible for being inside hour 150, absolutely ridiculous
 
very similar to last night's EURO--just farther west. But check out those deep blues embedded within the greens and yellows. Fun to look at.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png
 
Rain Cold said:
They do and they don't. I recent years, that feature has in no way aided in southern snow the bulk of the time. It can, under some circumstances, not be a hindrance, but you're going to have to work really really hard to convince me that it helps more than it hurts. About 90% of that feature shows up, a widespread winter storm here happens not. Maybe in a different pattern where there's blocking or something, it may not hurt us. But you can just look at the temp map above and see the effect of its presence.
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As Shane said, the reason for the warm temps is the streams are seperate, so in effect you are getting WSW flow aloft with no northern stream influence so of course it will be too warm. The other reason the temps rise on the chart posted last night was daytime heating. Most if the time when you have a weak low pressure over the lakes it is due to a PV lobe sitting over the area which does not kill cold air advection for us in the south.

Examples include 12/8/17 which had a weak low pressure over the lakes. 02/25/15 had a system over MO.
 
It's not even an Apps runner. It's a TN/OH Valley cutter. I guess we'll just have to watch and see if there are any eastward adjustments going forward.
 
WxWatch said:
12z GFS was actually close to a phase. I'm excited to see what the 12z Euro will show today. If a phase does really happen, this is going to be one monster storm.View attachment 31917
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It did actually phase.

Just in a way that would make the southern stream part of it end up heading straight north and outside of that crazy deform band in parts of Tennessee and upslope/backside snows, it might...be severe weather that's more interesting in the southeast on this.

There's ways to adjust this to make it interesting for I-85 west or at least the mountains (even outside the upslope), but for east of I-85, a lot of help would be needed (and I'm not expecting it, just saying there).

2nd edit: Maybe with this being a phasing situation, the problem with heights being too low won't be as big of an issue. Maybe it's about figuring out where the needle will be threaded.
 
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